Bigger Picture

Good morning! I posted analysis of MCIG to the prior thread. Meanwhile, the broader market is seemingly falling apart — retracing all of yesterday”s rally, and then some. Unfortunately, that requires too much attention to conduct a Livestock session this morning, so we may be relegated to the weekly post-close Livestock Unlimited at 4:30 ET. But stock chart analysis requests will be addressed immediately in this post”s thread.

I”m awaiting the confirmation that our new Livestock medium is operational, which might not be by 10:45. I”ll update after the open. Meanwhile, post any instant analysis stock requests in this thread and I”ll post there, along with my own observations of opening action.

Long live Livedesk. Our next live stock review (“Livestock,” I like it) will take place in a new medium that I can virtually guarantee you”ll love. As for today”s Livedesk, here are the stocks I reviewed, and summaries of the reviews. The actual recoding stopped during halfway through. So, ask me in this thread for any details if the stock is significant to you and didn”t make it to the recording.
https://new.livestream.com/accounts/7617211/events/2865745

VPOR — Retesting a Flag pattern from February supported by .0132, and would reverse momentum up by closing above .0164.
FSPM — Revisiting old analysis since stock is revisiting old low, and I want to repeat that there is nothing bullish about the pattern.
ATTBF — Finally testing .27, but not by a little. Falling Knife pattern would be triggered by closing back above .27 for a bounce targeting .32.
ANYI — .015 support must hold to maintain the Ascending Triangle pattern.
FITX — Dipping back into the base that had tried to overcome the bigger distributive pattern. But its breakout never confirmed, its test as support never recovered, and now its 61.8% retracement is being challenged at .0505.
MCIG — Ongoing delay in testing .2405 suggests too much optimism for a bottom. But a fresh high would be credible if accompanied by expanding volume.
TAUG — Bottoming potential, but not yet a Bottom-Fishing candidate. Would consider buying above .022 on volume.
CNAB — Still behaving as if coming within pennies of a triple satisfied the objective. Must close above 1.25 to reinstate upside momentum.
ERBB — .0176 continually overlapped while forming a Descending Triangle. Must close above .02 to resume the rally.
GWPH — Close under 84.40 would confirm the distributive pattern is finally breaking lower to its 75-77 target.
=== recording stopped ===
NVLX — Some potential for .165 to have satisfied sellers. But momentum reversing up requires closing above .195.
GBLX — Must close above 1.00 to reinstate upside momentum.
*NLNK — Current pullback may be only a detour, but any rally potential depends upon recovering 25.50.
TRTC — Recent “capitulation” volume pattern didn”t produce capitulative low, so now that has created a ceiling.
SPRWF — Closing above .36 would reinstate upside momentum.
*TKMR — Still testing my 24.50 target, but a second consecutive higher close today would confirm a bigger rally leg underway.
VAPE — Must hold 1.43 to avoid new lows for the year. But room up to 2.12 before confirming a rally leg is underway.
CELG — Recent pullback limit was violated for only 1 day, and its reversal signal held a test. Currently improving on expanding volume, but needs to extend higher aggressively to avoid another downleg.
ISIS — Forming an Ascending Triangle that remains intact so long as 38.85 is not broken as support.

Livedesk, 10:45 ET, be there… I”ll review the MJ sector and any requests made in the two prior threads.
http://marketfy.com/product/marijuana-stock-technical-trade-alerts/livedesk/

Today”s one thing is: What are the odds…

Three days down, what are the odds. No, seriously, what are the odds of the market closing down for three consecutive sessions? There”s no real answer, but only because there are so many.

It”s not that the specific probability can”t be calculated. So, what? There is no such thing as one specific market condition, so the value of knowing that probability could be dangerous.

Three consecutive lower closes off of a new high is not uncommon when the new high is part of a range instead of part of a trend. You might have deduced already that the third consecutive lower close is then part of that same range — as much “noise” as was the range”s fresh high that resolved down into the three-day decline.

Poker players reading this have recognized another consideration, and that is the odds at different stages. The odds of a single session”s decline becoming a three-day run are less than those of a two-day decline. Of course, a poker hand has multiple opportunities to connect, with the flop, on the turn, or at the river. A three-day decline must be consecutive.

So, today”s gap down follows two prior down days. And it”s still within the context of a four-week old trading range, this being toward its lower-end. The odds of completing a three-day run are lower than the odds of holding. And being the market, the odds of reversing back up — after expending more than two days of selling pressure — are better.

Now, the odds of extending down much more substantially after a three-day streak? Pretty good. Staying away from that third lower close leaves intact either a trading range or a rally. Two out of three. What are the odds of that.