Bigger Picture

Today”s issues of interest that I”ll be stalking within the following parameters are (alphabetically):

ATTBF above .97 would target 1.40, .83 stop

BRDT above .54 would be likely to run intraday, .44 stop

EDXC above .205 targeting .31, this is not a candidate for buying weakness

ERBB almost willing to buy weakness, but back into positive territroy above .056 would target .114

FITX Waiting for proof, like a probe above .0715, not bottom-fishing this

HPCS needs to bounce without delay to maintain the pattern”s accumulation

STEV filled a gap yesterday, and back above yesterday”s .23 high and .27 would target .47

We”ll review these on Livedesk mid-morning.

Filter THIS!
Good morning, all — There is a new blog update. However, it isn”t showing in the Actvity Feed thread. I”m sure it will be resolved somehow, but meanwhile let”s use this post to start a new conversation thread… Enjoy!

Today”s one thing is… Taxing, and taxiing.

As the name might imply, annual tax deadlines come but once a year. Sizeable stock market corrections can be rarer, yet. Sector corrections happen all of the time.

All. The. Time. Period.

Whether or not the broader market”s recent decline were qualify as a correction will depend upon whether it continues dropping. So far, despite making new relative lows, it hasn”t yet dropped enough to break from its two-month old range. My signals say that it will, but that need not be in a straight line.

Read that paragraph again, and imagine if that were a friend telling you whether he is planning to meet you for a movie. “I”ve left the house, and I”ve crossed two intersections in the path there. But I”m closer to home than to the theater. My car”s compass says I”m pointed in that direction, but the turns I take will be in the opposite direction.”

Make that, popcorn for one.

Yesterday”s early marijuana sector performance was promising, no doubt encouraged by the broader market gapping up. Neither really improved intraday, and both fell flat that afternoon. This morning”s open broader market is indicated to gap up again. Will today”s resolution be similar? Possibly.

Half of a stock”s intraday direction is tied to broader market gyrations. That won”t change, ever. Never. Don”t even try. Well, except for those times when they”re out-of-sync with each other. Like early January, when the broader market could barely get out of bed in the morning, and our stocks were on quite the journey.

That can cut both ways, and this week we find many of our stocks having fallen to potential pullback targets defined weeks ago. I called them “wishful thinking” targets, because the prices were so much cheaper than they were back then. Now that they”ve arrived, do they still seem cheap?

If the broader market decides not to maintain this morning”s gap up, either, then that will probably inhibit marijuana stocks from recovering. Today. If the broader market begins a deeper correction, that won”t make it any easier.

None of which changes whether many issues among our sector are at a decision point. Having taxied the runway while awaiting clear skies, is there an opening for at least clearer skies? When there is — whether for several days, or several weeks — the next journey can begin.

We talked this morning about GWPH as a proxy for whether the sector”s bounce was credible. The proxy said no, and the bounce disappeared. The broader market hasn”t resumed its decline, but not for lack of trying — just for lack of trying hard. For what it”s worth, these are very interesting levels to be testing. I am monitoring for actual reversal signals, which would suggest the levels are being exploited. Whether it is a matter of 10% or 25% or more, it may be a matter of only 1 day, 3 days, etc.

The S&P 500 index just slipped from noon hour highs back down to unchanged. All of its overnight raly and all of the noon hour highs have been retraced. The index fell back to unchanged on the day. A late bounce may be making the same mistake as the morning”s rally, which wouldn”t speak well for tonight. I would think twice about what is being held overnight.