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Bigger Picture – Page 608 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

The overnight futures action hasn”t

The overnight futures action hasn”t extended down. That”s not necessarily a plus for forming a durable bottom, but it could still serve as a base from which a bounce can be launched. Already buncing already this morning would be less productive than for a morning drop to probe one more low that shakes out the last of this round of weak longs. But if this first hour makes it through the first hour without resuming the drop, then I”ve got several issues I”m dying to pull the trigger on. And if the first half-hour hasn”t folded, then we”ll start reviewing their specific entries. Regardless, you”ll have symbols and price triggers shortly…

Open’s Interest… Mon Apr 14 2014

All recent coverage remains of interest. Even some of the marijuana stocks that left the list have returned — that is, those stocks whose interim price action has extended down far enough to fulfill their minimum price objectives.

But here”s the rub…

Fulfilling a minimum objective does not equate to being a buy signal. Just as the description suggests, fulfilling a minimum objective means the stock is ready to reverse up. But that doesn”t assure it will.

We all recall during the past several months opening dips tended to be brief, and tended to be recovered. And tended to resolve up in higher highs. Blindly buying opening dips became a very profitable strategy.

This is now a different phase of the market. Although Sunday night”s gap down isn”t yet confirming it will become anything bigger, it”s much too soon to bravely step in front of plummeting prices.

It will be time soon. It might not be until this afternoon or tomorrow morning, probably not as late as Wednesday, before at least temporary bottoms start forming. A broadly plunging market might not seem like it”s becoming attractive, and momentum can be difficult to stop. But remember, the market”s goal is to fool the majority, and they”ll eventually be on the wrong side.

The question soon coming — not quite yet, but be prepared — is whetehr the drop underway will slow or accelerate into its low. Taxiing the runway for a take-off requires building speed. So, just because the question is coming soon, that doesn”t mean price will be anywhere near here at the time.