Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The longstanding 1.1394-1.1430 target that was already met last week was retested Tuesday. Friday’s gap down under all prior lows was retested, but its test did not trigger a reaction up. Not already rallying early Wednesday would be likely to extend the breakout another 1-2 sessions.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping pre-open to 1221.50 was recovered to only test 1224.50 intraday. But the 1228.00 sell signal held a test as resistance, so any initial weakness Wednesday would be credible for extending down intraday.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending Monday’s break under the 14.57 sell signal to 14.40 support only hovered there through Tuesday, still vulnerable to resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Stocks in positive territory Tuesday mean no flight-to-safety, allowing Monday’s pullback to extend a little deeper and fill the gap back down to Friday’s 138-22 close. The bullish pattern could tolerate only a slight delay in resuming its rally.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having failed to maintain repeated probes of the 67.25 buy signal, a break lower had become likely. Tuesday’s gap down to the range’s 65.75 lower-end quickly fulfilled the objective, and held through the close. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close Wednesday would be bullish. Meanwhile, Tuesday’s post-close API is being greeted from a position of weakness that suggests at least probing lower temporarily.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up surged to fill the gap back up to Thursday’s 3.25 close. Reacting down filled the gap back to Monday’s close. Extending down under 3.14 would launch a new downleg. Back above 3.25 would be much likelier to break higher on its second attempt.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying overnight into a gap up Monday didn’t extend higher intraday, but also consolidated above Friday’s close. Having fulfilled its longstanding downside objective last week, near-term choppiness remains likely.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down slightly Monday trended down to test the 1228.00 sell signal. It was still being overlapped at the close to avoid triggering, but any initial weakness Tuesday morning would be credible for extending lower.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s break under the 14.57 sell signal slid back down to the uptrending channel’s lower-end, coinciding at 14.40. Hesitation there seems almost obligatory — but isn’t, because that’s not a trendline or calculable feature, only structural. Nevertheless, any initial weakness Tuesday morning would be credible for extending lower.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Testing the 139-26 corrective bounce target Friday to within 1 tick was pierced Sunday night up to 139-29, but Monday dipped back down to “lower prior highs” at 138-28. Which doesn’t reverse momentum down, so rallying again before dipping any deeper could next target 140-26.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming overnight to a fresh high at 67.95 was again retraced to spend the session fluctuating around the 67.25 buy signal. The delay in triggering it does open the door to probing lower — if not also to resuming the decline.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday already produced the pattern’s fresh lows as had been likely. That didn’t prevent gapping down again Monday, once again within the prior lows. But this is that setup’s second time, so despite not requiring a retest, Monday’s lows are likely to be probed. And probing fresh lows would be vulnerable to trending down intraday.