Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially extending the bounce up to 1.1495 stopped short of “higher prior lows” 1.1515 before intraday action formed a bearish key-reversal that reversed into negative territory down to 1.1410. The lows require at least a retest, which closing back under 1.1400 would signal is underway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s narrow sideways ranging around 1235.00 doesn’t confirm Thursday’s steep rally, and keeps the door open to closing back under 1228.00 to resume the decline.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
An overnight dip initially attacked the 14.70 sell signal before rallying sharply Friday morning to attack 14.95. But that was only reversed through the afternoon to again attack 14.70.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A week of correlating to stocks’ direction seems to have disengaged Friday. This was despite initially probing under 138-04 more shallowly than Thursday test while stocks had gone higher. Nevertheless, crashing stocks were apparently looking elsewhere in their flight-to-safety, as fresh pullback lows fell to 137-12. Resuming the rally relies on not only avoiding a second consecutive lower close Monday, but also on Sunday night or Monday morning price action almost immediately rejecting Friday’s break to make it an anomaly.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already piercing Thursday’s lows Friday morning down to to 62.63, avoiding a new downleg depends on closing back above 63.35, and then not delaying a recovery leg.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down from Thursday’s retest of the 3.25 buy signal bounced off of its 3.17 prior low, which had also become a sell signal if pierced. The reaction was steep and substantial, reversing back up through 3.25 to retest Thursday’s 3.29 high.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s second consecutive confirming close under Tuesday’s breakout requires an eventual third lower close before a durable bottom can form. That unfinished business below didn’t prevent Thursday’s gap up back to the upper-end of the original 1.1430 target. Extending to 1.1463 intraday filled Monday and Friday’s gaps, so any initial weakness Friday would be likely to extend down into and out of the weekend.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s second consecutive confirming close under Tuesday’s break under the 1228.00 sell signal didn’t prevent Thursday’s gap up to and through 1228.00. Extending higher intraday tested 1239.00, with room to also test 1241.00 before suggesting more than a temporary detour before eventually fulfilling the minimum required third lower close.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap down had held 14.28 support whose break would have confirmed lower lows remain in-play. That vulnerability was exploited overnight and Thursday’s gap up to and through 14.40 extending sharply higher intraday to test 14.80. Closing back under 14.70 would now resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still no catalyst for a flight-to-safety, Thursday morning wasn’t inhibited from probing under 138-04. But only temporarily as the balance of the session recovered to close back above 138-04 in positive territory– again, despite no catalyst, suggesting that the lower-end of a range is set.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s confirmation of Tuesday’s breakout under 66.21 wasted no time fulfilling its minimum requirement for at least a third lower close on Thursday. Fresh lows at 63.11 could extend lower so long as bounces now hold 65.25 as resistance.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Closing just above the 3.25 buy signal Wednesday extended higher overnight to 3.32. But Thursday ‘s open was greeted unchanged while dipping back down to 3.21. The close recovered to unchanged, still in position to extend the recovery.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s retest of the longstanding 1.1394-1.1430 target area extended down without delay overnight. The second consecutive lower close confirms the breakout, and now requires at least an eventual third lower close.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending down overnight confirmed Tuesday’s break under the 1228.00 sell signal, which now requires at least an eventual third lower close.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s open gapped down under the rising channel’s lower-end, down to its last touch under 14.30. This sequence can repeat indefinitely and extend down again, although a second consecutive lower close would at least confirm the decline remains intact.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still no catalyst for a flight-to-safety Wednesday, allowing the pullback to continue back to 138-04. Its break would still essentially seal a top to the bounce, so holding it all but relies upon stocks reversing back down.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially firming in reaction to Wednesday’s EIA, the session ultimately only ranged narrowly around unchanged. Back above 67.95 would trigger a new upleg.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping back up Wednesday extended higher intraday to test the 3.25 buy signal that Tuesday’s open had chipped away at. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength.