Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 7, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s 30-year auction tends to inhibit volatility until the results are posted. No other report is either high-profile or influential to price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s reversal from fresh bounce highs back into negative territory tried extending deeper Sunday night to trigger the 1.1400 sell signal, but only to bounce Monday. Friday’s 1.1475 gap up could be tested before suggesting any greater upside.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ranging at or around the 1228.50 sell signal into Monday’s open, and any lower close would be credible for extending down without delay.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s break under the 14.70 sell signal fell to prior support at 14.60, where a bounce up to 14.70 was retraced to attack 14.60. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm another downleg attempt underway.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up and firming slightly Monday avoided extending lower, which helps to consider Friday’s drop as being an isolated temporary reaction to the Employment Situation report, and not necessarily disengaging from the recent inverse correlation to stocks.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s fresh lows attacking 62.50 were recovered in time to isolate the probe under the 63.20 pullback limit, allowing a recovery to form if triggered above 64,65, and confirmed without delay Tuesday.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Repeatedly testing the 3.25 buy signal last week never extended higher into the weekend. But holding the 3.17 pullback limit Friday morning and recovering to close again above 3.25 was rewarded Sunday night, compensating for the delay by gapping up above all prior highs to 3.50-3.57. Pullbacks have room down to 3,36-3,42 while maintaining upside momentum.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 6, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tueday’s jobs opening report is one of the week’s few that is potentially influential, depending on the degree to which it contradicts or reinforces Friday’s payrolls.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 11/3/18) …Warning shot, or correction?
On net, last week’s gain wasn’t substantial. But it a weekly gain had become rare, so there’s that. And Fridays close — even being well under its pre-open high — was much, much higher than Monday’s trend low. So, there’s that.
Whatever that is, it hasn’t accomplished enough to qualify as reversing the trend up. Perhaps it is a “warning shot across the bow” at bears that the turn is coming, or at least that it is forming. Or, likelier, perhaps it is only a correction, expending a maximum amount of buying pressure and refueling buyers without reversing the trend up.
This week’s Saturday Review describes each resolution, and their likely paths, while applying the rule sets of my methodology, which can be applied consistently across all liquid markets.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AAPL, BKNG, DATA, WDC, UA, NEWR, DIS, SYMC, SQ, WYNN, QCOM, TTWO, GE
transcript
Mark G: gm
David B: Good Morning
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post comments and questions as they occur to you.
—————– (11/03/2018 09:39) —————–
Mark G: Sat Review section that usually has link didn’t have today – just a recording from last Sat
Mark G: yes
Mark G: k
—————– (11/03/2018 10:06) —————–
Mark G: simply extending higher can leave the Q if the bottom is in still open
—————– (11/03/2018 10:08) —————–
Bill G: Will a rally from between the current price and 2683 still be considerered a corrective rally even if the rally extends above 2800.?
Mark G: can this H&S break falsely higher to retest its head & then reverse down?
—————– (11/03/2018 10:19) —————–
ljr iPad: stocks (all earnings this week). Looking for positions of strength/weakness to play the earnings event. Thx
ljr iPad: monday: BKNG
ljr iPad: tues: DATA, NEWR, DIS
ljr iPad: wed: SQ, WYNN, QCOMM
ljr iPad: thurs: TTWO
Bill G: Bigger picture it6 wstill could?
—————– (11/03/2018 10:22) —————–
Bill G: 2806 would still be short of a trend change longer term?
—————– (11/03/2018 10:29) —————–
David B: WDC – Does it look like this has completed a bottom?
David B: UA,SYMC
—————– (11/03/2018 10:36) —————–
David B: what level f pull back would be a concern?
David B: levl of a pull back
David B: yes
—————– (11/03/2018 10:48) —————–
David B: is symc a jan candidate?
—————– (11/03/2018 10:52) —————–
David B: what closing level for GE would indicate the selling is done?
—————– (11/03/2018 10:54) —————–
Mark G: RSI diverged positively in SQ on a retest but perhaps it already perfomred on this
—————– (11/03/2018 10:57) —————–
Bill G: Sorry another mkt question—The mkt has corrected about .382 of the distance from Mon low and Fri high. Would a rally from here be considered weaker then if the pullback extended closer to .618 before rallying? I’m thinking the mkt may be about to start the second leg of a corrective rally before starting at least another test of the low.
—————– (11/03/2018 11:09) —————–
ljr iPad: thanks for review and stocks. I’ll watch recording.
—————– (11/03/2018 11:14) —————–
Bill G: ok,thanks. Have a good one.
Mark G: thx much
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!