Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s gap up had tested “higher prior lows” and filled a three-week old gap up to 1.1545, so reversing down without delay was necessary for the bounce to be considered only a correction. Thursday’s immediate weakness was credible for extending down intraday, which it did — a lot — to test the 1.1400 sell signal. Closing lower Friday would confirm at least a retest of recent lows is underway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up to the pattern’s 1236.00 resistance had trended back down intraday to test its 1228.00 sell signal. Probing fresh lows overnight tested 1221.00, and now must close lower Friday to confirm the trend is reversing down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up had held a test of the 14.70 sell signal as resistance, before falling back down to fresh lows at 14.50. Thursday’s gap down to and through 14.50 extended under 14.40 to confirm at least an eventual third lower close is required.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s pre-open attack on the 138-04 buy signal was retraced intraday. Overnight backing-and-filling then attacked last Friday’s 137-02 prior intraday low. The next break beyond either is likely to extend in that direction.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s breakout had absorbed Wednesday’s pre-open surge that attacked the pattern’s 63.22 bounce limit, which was reversed to fresh lows and a fresh low close. Lower lows Thursday’s attack on 60.40 may have fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s minimum requirement for at least an eventual third lower close, but the downleg’s momentum remains intact so long as bounces now hold 61.75 as resistance.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength wasn’t likely to produce fresh highs so much as recover from a knee-jerk reaction down. But there was neither, as the congestion persisted, still forming a position of strength to help recover from a correction.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up slightly extended only so far as to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 1.1475 opening gap. Neutralizing its attraction above allows almost any initial weakness Wednesday to be credible for extending down, signaled under 1.1400.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s slightly lower low started chipping away at 1228.00 support, after the “ineffectual optimism” of having hovered above it Monday.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s consolidation had delayed extending Friday’s break under the 14.70 sell signal, but Tuesday’s break under 14.50 compensated for the delay. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would confirm.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s narrow flat-to-higher ranging was followed by Tuesday’s narrow flat-to-lower ranging, all contained within Friday’s range to suggest that the first trending attempt will be false. Regardless, Friday’s break isn’t rejected, greeting Wednesday’s 30-year auction not from a position of strength, but still capable of absorbing an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not maintaining 63.22 overnight had no excuse to further delay resuming the decline, and Tuesday morning plunged to 61.31. A second consecutive lower close on Wednesday would confirm that at least an eventual third lower close is required.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s narrow flat-to-higher ranging up to 3.58 did not even bother trying to reject Monday’s surge, which doesn’t necessarily help it to extend higher immediately, but does help to recover from a pullback to 3.42.