Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s open gapped down under all prior lows and trended down intraday for the fourth consecutive session. The lower close already fulfills the minimum third lower close required by the confirmed breakout. But the persistent sentiment suggests bleeding into at least another session or more.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing fresh lows overnight extended Monday to attack the 1201.50 objective, whose break would put into play 1172.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Avoiding fresh lows overnight didn’t prevent resuming the decline Monday morning down to 14.00. Hovering at or above September’s low suggests “ineffectual optimism” that is bearish from a contrarian perspective. .

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having recovered from prior lows Friday up to the 138-04 buy signal, Sunday night easily began probing above it. But gapping up to 138-12 only fluctuated flat-to-higher, and has yet to actually rally.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up above Friday’s low formed the basis of a reversal pattern, if it could be maintained and extended. Which it wasn’t. But at least its failure filled the gap back down to Friday’s close, so any initial strength Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already extending to fresh highs at 3.90 Sunday night was unsustainable, so Monday’s open gapped up only to test Friday’s highs around 3.80 and then range sideways. The “ineffectual optimism” makes any initial reversal down Tuesday likely to extend intraday, targeting 3.42.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday and Thursday’s session-long downtrends had retraced from “higher prior lows” and a gap fill up to 1.1545 to pierce the 1.1400 sell signal. Trending down further Friday confirmed the break, which now requires at least an eventual third lower close. Which would necessarily create a break under the prior Wednesday’s low that Friday’s 1.1350 low was testing.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing under 1228.00 again Thursday, and to its deepest yet, extended overnight and through Friday morning to attack 1207.00. The next lower attraction in-play is 1201.50, whose break would target 1172.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down overnight greeted Friday’s open back at the same 14.28 test which had stopped the previous gap down there from extending. But its supportive value was now expended, so the test was likely to extend down intraday, and did, attacking 14.05. Any lower would essentially confirm a much larger downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Filling the gap intraday back to last Friday’s 137-02 close was recovered intraday to attack the 138-04 buy signal. Also, the inverse correlation with stocks seems to have re-engaged, so triggering the buy signal might require stocks to break lower as a catalyst for a flight-to-safety.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Although the 63.22 break’s third lower close requirement was fulfilled already, nothing had signaled the decline ending. Trending down further overnight gapped down and attacked 59.25. The d=session developed exclusively in negative territory, while testing two-month old “lower prior highs” — on the 10th day of lower consecutive prices — making the pattern vulnerable to an up/down-crash setup that either explodes higher or implodes down.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday night rallied sharply from the week’s multi-session range up to 3.64, despite no interim price correction since the last gap up. Extending to 3.80 now requires a second consecutive higher close to confirm that at least an eventual third higher close is required. That’s difficult between Friday-Monday. A pullback to “lower prior highs” at 3.55 is likelier, if not also down to 3.41.