Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s gap down had trended down intraday, and now Thursday has trended down further to confirm the breakout from the multi-session range. Some obligatory support from the recent 1.1500 low being tested might produce a temporary bounce, but the trend has meanwhile reversed.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh relative lows under 1222.00 reacted back up into the recent range testing 1233.50. A bigger bounce still has room up to 1241.00 before reversing down, which the pattern is otherwise free to do at any time.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s fresh lows tested and retested the rising channel’s uptrending resistance as support around 14.60. Its break would next target the channel’s lower-end within currently coincides around 14.35.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The extended delay in breaking under the 138-04 sell signal had made it either less likely to break, or likely to recover a break. It was the latter, as Thursday gapped down to 137-24 and barely extended any lower before beginning a reversal back into positive territory, and back above 138-04. Back above 138-18 would target 139-26.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s gap down to fresh lows comes after Wednesday had already fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s minimum requirement for. Thursday’s bounce from gapping down was retraced entirely back down to the low. The trend remains down.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Thursday back to the 3.25 sell signal extended through it to 3.20. A second consecutive lower close on Friday would confirm, but the trend does appear to be reversing down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Reversing down overnight essentially confirms the two intraday tests of last week’s highs had held, and that a top may have finished forming. Regardless, a second consecutive lower close on Thursday is still needed for confirmation.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still hovering under the lower-end of the 1236.00-1241.00 bounce limit Wednesday means still not reacting back down. Attacking or testing the bounce limit’s upper-end and closing under its lower-end should launch a new downleg. Otherwise, early weakness could extend but must still close lower to confirm.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-lower ranging Wednesday essentially held around unchanged at 14.70. Closing back under 14.60 would now signal momentum reversing down to 14.35 and possibly lower.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday continued hovering narrowly above the 138-04 sell signal. Having avoided its break for four consecutive sessions, the potential has grown for extending the corrective bounce to 140-26.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Greeting Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of weakness broke to fresh lows at 69.63, on-track for fulfilling the minimum requirement for at least a third lower close.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The gap back up to 3.28 was tested Wednesday morning, and was still holding or being tested into the afternoon. Closing under 3.25 can now greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Last week’s 1.1655 highs were probed again Tuesday, and held again as resistance. While this is the intraday requirement to maintain that a top is forming, the pattern can’t repeat indefinitely before reversing down, not if reversing down is the intent.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s reaction down from the lower-end of 1236.00-1241.00 was recovered entirely Tuesday, still having room to test the target area’s upper-end, but now being vulnerable to reversing or at least correcting last week’s surge.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday above Monday’s 14.80 high was reversed back into negative territory to test Monday’s 14.70 close. The gap up is not outstanding and doesn’t require being filled, so early weakness Wednesday would be credible for extending down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday was the third consecutive session to fluctuate narrowly supported by the 138-04 sell signal. Delaying its break does open the door wider to extending the corrective bounce, which would next be attracted to “higher prior lows” at 140-26.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-higher ranging for a third consecutive session Tuesday continued to delay the requirement for at least one eventual lower close. The delay keeps the door open to an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to Wednesday’s EIA, but the news is otherwise being greeted from a position of weakness.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Filling the gap back up to 3.28 was likely before continuing to trigger and confirm the 3.25 sell signal. Probing it overnight up to 3.31 was already retraced before Tuesday’s open to avoid neutralizing the attraction. Narrow sideways ranging Wednesday, too, would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.