Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Oct 17, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Canada legalizes recreational cannabis on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the FOMC Minutes release is likely to be more influential to price action than usual since rate hikes are attributed as one cause to the recent stock market plunge.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s break lower was retraced Sunday night, for Monday to test last week’s highs as resistance. The gap back down to Friday’s close doesn’t require being filled, but it’s likely so long as intraday probes above last week’s highs hold as resistance. And filling the gap below is likely to resume the trend’s reversal down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not confirming Thursday’s surge didn’t prevent extending it anyway, which Sunday night did to touch the lower-end of the 1236.00-1241.00 target area. Its upper-end need not be touched before reversing down, although that’s likely.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s rally retested the prior upleg’s 14.80 objective whose test had reacted down aggressively in the interim. Its resistance can be overlapped without actually breaking higher, but breaking higher would be credible for extending.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still hovering Sunday night and Monday morning above the 138-04 sell signal that served to support Friday’s ranging at fresh bounce highs, with no further upside requirement or attraction, makes any immediate weakness Tuesday likely to extend down.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s rally in reaction to news of tighter supplies did not invalidate that Thursday’s sell signal was already confirmed by a second consecutive lower close. At least an eventual third lower close is required before a rally can be credible. In fact, Sunday night’s gap up was reversed back into negative territory Monday morning.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Sunday night helped to confirm that Friday’s lower close was disqualified from confirming Thursday’s break under the 3.23 sell signal. And still bouncing Monday morning does make the filling gap back up to Wednesday’s 3.28 close likelier before resuming the decline.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 16, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The delay in JOLTS is interesting, as it usually comes the week following Employment Situation report. Confirming or contradicting the payrolls miss could duplicate or retrace the original reaction. Tuesday’s other reports are neither influential nor high-profile. High-profile quarterly earnings continue, including IBM and MS.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/13/18) … Done, or done?
This week we review the damage done to the market by the recently begun decline. Is a corrective bounce possible? Always, but what would be its signals and its potential? Will the decline try resuming? Probably, but how deeply before it’s on to a new lower objective? And what would be the next lower objectives? Quarterly earnings have gotten underway, too, so the market will have plenty of inputs to influence it.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, ACBFF, TLRY, CGC, TGODF, MMNFF, KSHB, GE
transcript
(10/13/2018 09:31)
Rod David: WELCOME TO SATURDAY REVIEW. PLEASE POST QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS AS THEY OCCUR TO YOU.
Mark: gm
David B: Good Morning
Bill G: gm
(10/13/2018 09:46)
Mark: if decline resumes Mon would you still expect a big leg down next?
(10/13/2018 09:59)
David B: Usually when you see a big decline like on wednesday there is a flight to safety in bonds. it looks like this was not happening and was this a warning that something else that market is telling us?
(10/13/2018 10:03)
David B: is 2709 still on the table that a close below would open the flood gates and we are on our way to 2528?
(10/13/2018 10:05)
ljr iPad: stocks: NOW, SHOP, BIDU, CMG, AGN
(10/13/2018 10:07)
ljr iPad: ROKU
(10/13/2018 10:23)
ljr iPad: TEAM
(10/13/2018 10:32)
ljr iPad: team earnings oct18
(10/13/2018 10:35)
ljr iPad: ROKU awhile later
(10/13/2018 10:40)
ljr iPad: thx.
(10/13/2018 10:47)
ljr iPad: GE candidate for tax loss selling this year too?
(10/13/2018 10:49)
Bill G: Thanks
Mark: thx much
ljr iPad: thx.
Rod David: ;)
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!