Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having rallied to resistance at 1.1645 Thursday, Friday needed to trend back down to avoid extending the rally. And having trended back down Friday, Monday is likely at some point to probe fresh lows. Which at this stage of the pattern can accelerate and extend.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s outsized gap up and intraday rally wasn’t rejected Friday, but neither was it confirmed as the session backed-and-filled. Having delayed the extension higher, Monday has no bullish excuse to further delay it. Its 1235.00-1241.00 corrective bounce target could be met Monday or Tuesday.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up to attack 14.75 still reacted down to fluctuate around unchanged at 14.60. Thursday’s reversal wasn’t confirmed with a second consecutive higher close. But neither was the reversal rejected, and any early strength coming out of the weekend would be credible for extending to fresh highs intraday.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s probe above 138-04 to whatever degree — ultimately to  138-29 — was still likely to reverse back down. Gapping down to the 138-04 sell signal Friday didn’t break lower and eventually firmed to fill the gap back up to Thursday’s close.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming $1 overnight after confirming Wednesday’s 73.90 sell signal down to 70.90 doesn’t relieve or at all alleviate the requirement for at least an eventual third lower close. Which Friday tried to produce, reversing its gap up to probe slightly under Thursday’s low.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s break under the 3.25 sell signal was more productive intraday than at the close, which nevertheless triggered the signal. A second consecutive lower close on Friday confirms momentum reversing down. Helping its credibility is the overnight bounce that nearly filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s 3.29 close. But the gap can still be tested more thoroughly until actually break under 3.15.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap up probed an unfilled gap at 1.1645 momentarily before its retracement tested Wednesday’s “lower prior highs” down to 1.1605. Its reaction recovered 1.1645, so far holding a test of the gap and of its resistance. Almost any initial weakness Friday morning would be credible for extending down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s gap up to the original 1209.50 bounce limit held up through the open and trended up intraday to test 1228.00. This is the highest levels since July, and makes the 1172.50 objective problematic. Much will depend on whether Friday produces a second consecutive higher close. Regardless, “lower prior highs” at 1209.50 will be difficult to break back under.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gaping up Thursday above Tuesday’s 14.45 high trended up intraday until filling the gap back to Friday’s 14.65 high. No “unfinished business” below is outstanding, so early strength or weakness Friday would be credible for extending in that direction.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s mixed signals were likely to first test 138-04 above before reversing to fresh lows under 136-26. Stock market continued weakness overnight motivated a bounce to 138-17. Its reaction down held 138-04 Thursday morning, before retesting the overnight high. Back under 138-04 would now target 136-26 and lower.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight follow-through of Wednesday’s break under the 73.90 sell signal reacted poorly to Thursday morning’s EIA report. Extending down to 70.90 also produced a second consecutive lower close to confirm Wednesday’s break. At least an eventual third lower close is now required.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness, the open gapped down to the 3.25 sell signal and extended down to 3.15. That Its retracement ended back at or under the sell signal, needing a second consecutive lower close on Friday to confirm.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s 1.1495 gap down under all prior lows requires an eventual retest after its post-open action rallied intraday. That didn’t prevent Wednesday morning from extending higher to fill the gap back up to Monday’s 1.1590 close. And it can’t prevent probing any higher Thursday morning, although that would be likely to reverse back down through the afternoon.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s flat-to-higher ranging didn’t extend Monday’s collapse, and it was too shallow to reject it — for a second consecutive session. The break is all but confirmed, although Wednesday’s bounce shouldn’t extend much beyond Thursday’s open before failing.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing slightly lower lows Wednesday morning down to 14.25 tested uptrending support and the 14.28 level whose break would confirm a new downleg underway. Its test was ongoing through the afternoon, but not rejected.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s bounce wasn’t going to extend or at least not gain traction, but gapping down Wednesday and spending the entire session in negative territory may be resuming the decline. Prior intraday lows at 136-26 were tested, with fresh lows lying another half-point lower.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing back up to the 75.30 buy signal Tuesday without triggering it prevented greeting Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of strength. Its reaction trended back down under the 73.90 sell signal that had held two prior tests Friday and Monday, but broke lower Wednesday to 72.90. A second consecutive lower close would undermine any higher targets.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s failure to extend Monday night’s extension of the intraday surge required extending higher Wednesday without delay to avoid a much deeper corrective dip. Which Wednesday did — rallying overnight to within 1 cent of Monday night’s 3.37 high — but that was only half the battle. The intraday high got to only 3.34 before reversing back under the two prior sessions’ 3.29 highs to 3.25. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of weakness. That doesn’t preclude an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up, but the burden of proof is on buyers to extend the rally, or else to correct it.