Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday gapped down again and immediately stopped trending down again, retracing back into the prior day’s range again. But unlike Monday, the open’s gap down under all prior lows to 1.1495 remains open and all but requiring being filled from above before a credible rally could begin. The trend otherwise remains down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s chippy open eventually firmed into positive territory, not reversing  Monday’s drop or even probing above Monday’s post-open high, but also not producing a second consecutive lower close that would have confirmed Monday’s breakout from a multi-session range. Extending the decline Wednesday should begin without further delay to be credible for extending down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging Tuesday tested “higher prior lows” at 14.40, bouncing again off of the attack on uptrending support that had halted Monday’s drop. Breaking under 14.27 would be credible for extending the decline intraday.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Slightly lower lows overnight down to 136-15 confirmed that no bottom has formed over Monday’s government holiday. A new trend extreme precludes triggering a reversal signal on the same day. Extending Tuesday’s intraday bounce above its 137-24 high to also recover 138-04 would start to signal momentum reversing up. The downtrend meanwhile remains intact.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s recovery back above its 73.90 pullback limit / sell signal was extended overnight, but only to attack the 75.30 buy signal, which must still be recovered through a close to reinstate the 78.10 target above.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s dip to the 3.11 pullback limit had needed to resume the rally without delay, which Monday did by rallying to fresh highs attacking 3.30. But the rally began by gapping up sharply, creating a new attraction below back down to Friday’s close. Maintaining the rally Tuesday required extending higher without delay, too, but probing higher overnight to 3.37 was still retraced before the open and only ranged narrowly sideways intraday. A corrective dip has become likelier than extending the rally near-term.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s inside day didn’t end the decline’s momentum, let alone reverse the confirmed breakout back up after Thursday had fulfilled the decline’s minimum objective. With the decline’s momentum intact, Monday’s open gapped down under all prior lows and ranged narrowly sideways .

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing and testing the 1202.30 sell signal through most of last week seems to be compensating for the break’s delay by gapping down Monday to 1193.00 and extending down intraday to 1186.00. The gap back up to Friday’s close will want to be filled eventually, but the 1172.50 remains intact.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Monday rejected last week’s ranging around 14.65 and under uptrending support at 14.55, but still requires closing under 14.25 to confirm momentum is reversing down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s Bank and Government holiday sapped both participation and volatility from the market, where narrow ranging formed an inside day that doesn’t reverse the prevailing downtrend.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing off of the 73.90 pullback limit Thursday had stopped short of reversing momentum up above 75.30. Sunday night’s drop to fresh lows attacking 73.05 was already bouncing into Monday’s open, but still stopped short of recovering the 73.90 pullback limit.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping further Friday had held the 2.12 pullback limit which required resuming the rally without delay to avoided reversing the trend down. Gapping up Monday extended to fresh highs that tested 2.29, creating new room for only a corrective dip down to 2.23.