Bigger Picture
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/6/18) …Did anything change, except price?
Has anything changed? In other words, did last week’s two last sessions of steep decline change the upside attraction. What would more downside suggest? What differentiates between more downside, and just constructively backing-and-filling to launch another rally leg? We address these items and more in this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, ACBFF, TLRY, IIPR, TGODF, MU, INTC, AMD
transcript
—————– (10/06/2018 09:30) —————–
Rod David: -=-=-=
Rod David: WELCOME TO SATURDAY REVIEW, PLEASE POST QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS AS THEY OCCUR TO YOU
Bill G: gm
David B: Good Morning
Mark: gm
—————– (10/06/2018 09:54) —————–
Mark: for a meaningful trend rversal in ES would we rather city all three indeces going down in unison?
—————– (10/06/2018 09:56) —————–
Mark: see
—————– (10/06/2018 10:08) —————–
Bill G: MU
David B: INTC,AMD
—————– (10/06/2018 10:20) —————–
David B: Thanks
Mark: thx much
Bill G: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday could almost be construed as an inside day, but its high did pierce Thursday’s range. So did its low, if ignoring the overnight low that was never revisited intraday. Regardless, the delay in exploiting Thursday’s recovery from overnight lows now requires adjusting the buy signal up to 1.1630, still targeting 1.1740. Fresh lows would instead resume the decline.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s close at or under the 1203.00 sell signal never extended under 1201.50 to confirm before bouncing Friday back up to the 1209.50 yet again. It held, yet again, keeping alive the potential for a break lower that would target 1172.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing under the 14.65 pullback limit Thursday didn’t gain any traction before bouncing back up Friday morning. The pattern remains vulnerable to probing above 14.80 so long as the pullback limit continues to hold.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s fresh low close fulfilled the minimum requirement for at least an eventual third lower close, which had been created by Wednesday’s confirmed sell signal. Further lower lows are possible, and likely until a reversal signal forms. But the pattern of two consecutive slightly lower lows following Wednesday’s plunge tends to reflect pent-up selling pressure that makes the decline likely to persist.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s bounce helps offers further validation to the 73.90 sell signal being influential, following Thursday’s intraday slide that ended upon touching it. But it doesn’t ensure resuming the rally to its 78.10 target without further delays before triggering its 75.45 buy signal.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s retracement of the recent rally eventually extended Friday morning after gapping up to 3.22. Its reaction more fully tested the room for a pullback down to 3.11. Back above 3.20 should resume the rally.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 8, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s stock markets are open for the Columbus Day holiday, as are futures — even futures traded for government bonds despite the government bond cash market being closed. Banks are closed, too.
US Holiday: Columbus Day
Banks, Gov’t bond cash markets closed
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down to a fresh low on Thursday at 1.1560 was well above the 1.1526 overnight low. Its recovery probed positive territory up to 1.1606 before dipping back into negative territory. Back above 1.1595 would now trigger at least a corrective rally up to 1.1740. The trend otherwise remains down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing at or under 1203.30 Wednesday was recovered Thursday morning to test the 1209.50 bounce limit. It was retraced entirely back down under 1203.30. Closing under the original 1201.50 sell signal should resume the decline targeting 1172.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping overnight under the 14.65 pullback limit was recovered Thursday morning to test the 14.80 gap fill. Its resistance resolved down to fresh lows at the original 14.56 gap fill, and under the 14.65 pullback limit. Closing any lower would resume the decline.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending lower overnight gapped down Thursday. The entire session ranged sideways in negative territory. Its second consecutive lower close confirmed Wednesday’s breakout from what had been a multi-session range, which now requires at least an eventual third lower close.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to and through 76.00 Thursday extended sharply lower to touch the 73.90 sell signal. Just closing under the 75.45 pullback limit requires its immediate recovery Friday to resume the upside momentum.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Room for a pullback down to 3.11 was attacked by Thursday’s morning’s drop from 3.25 in reaction to EIA. It was greeted from a position of strength, so the pullback should be recovered at least to retest the high.