Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 5, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s highlight is almost its only report, which is monthly payrolls released before the open. The noon hour’s Fed speaker can be influential to price action, and more reliably when following high-profile data.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Flat-to-lower ranging Wednesday extended the decline, regardless of Tuesday already having fulfilled its minimum third required lower close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still holding the 1209.50 bounce limit intraday, Wednesday reversed down to at least overlap the 1203.30 sell signal, if not actually probing under and triggering it.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s 14.65 pullback limit had held but was still being tested Wednesday, maintaining the upside momentum or at least not letting sellers regain traction.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s bounce was rejected by gapping back down into Tuesday’s range under 140-00. The balance of the session trended down sharply to attack 138-00, and no immediate bounce would be free from the requirement to retest Wednesday’s low.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher Wednesday confirms the 78.10 target is in-play. Pullbacks must now hold 75.45 as support, and under 73.90 would reverse the trend down.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending higher Wednesday without delay confirms Tuesday’s breakout. Its 3.28 high now has room for a pulback down to 3.11 while still maintaining the upside momentum.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Oct 4, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday is usually the week’s busiest for econ reports. This week’s isn’t entirely empty, but its relatively few reports are not reliable for influencing price action.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down to fresh lows Tuesday morning positioned the pattern to fulfill the minimum requirement for at least an eventual third lower close, after Monday’s slightly lower low wasn’t decisive enough. Tuesday’s 1.1575 test as support is unreliable support, and its break could target 1.13950-1.1430.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still fluctuating at or around the 1195.00 bounce limit overnight didn’t prevent surging sharply Tuesday morning to test the 1209.50 buy signal. It’s still resistance until recovered, and closing back under 1203.30 would now signal the decline had resumed. Otherwise, closing higher would put into play 1225.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s dip back down to uptrending support never reversed momentum down, especially since the test began by a rally stopping pessimistically short of its 14.80 objective, and then gapping down pessimistically. None of which required resuming the rally immediately, or at specific pace, but Tuesday did surge through 14.80 to 14.95 next targeting so long as 14.65 now holds as support.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Pre-open firming back up to the 140-10 sell signal extended higher intraday to 140-23, only to be knocked back down to 140-10. A lower close is the minimum requirement to resume the decline.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s surge through the rally’s 73.90-74.25 target area to 75.75 needed to hold 73.90 as support to maintain the rally’s momentum, and now preferably 74.25. The next higher objective in-play is 78.10.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday to reject Friday’s dip to the 3.00 pullback held a retest of the original 3.10 target through the close. So, extending higher without delay would be required to avoid forming a top. Already firming pre-open Tuesday extended higher into the afternoon to attack 3.20.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Oct 3, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The econ calendar is busy for a Wednesday, even busier than this week’s Thursday calendar which is usually the week’s busiest. Two pre-open Fed speakers are too early to be reliably influential to price action, unlike the afternoon speakers. Meanwhile, the pre-open ADP report is not only influential, it also gives us insight into the market’s possible reactions to Friday’s payrolls. And post-open reports are likely to duplicate any noticeable reaction to the pre-open ADP.
Charles Evans Speaks
6:30 AM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Tom Barkin Speaks
8:05 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
12:00 PM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
2:15 PM ET
