Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap down and intraday downtrending is a breakout from the five-day multi-session range that had developed between 1.1815-1.1855. The 1.1735 last relative low was touched, which a second consecutive confirming lower close Friday would also break. Not extending down Friday would undermine the topping pattern, and instead be more likely to back-and-fill back to last week’s highs.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s close under the 1201.50 sell signal extended sharply lower Thursday morning to attack 1185.50, confirming the breakout. A 5-6 week old gap outstanding from 1184.50 could offer some obligatory support. But the drop is meanwhile targeting overnight lows to at least 1172.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s open gapped to and through 14.33, back down to the uptrending channel’s lower-end at 14.20. A second consecutive lower close on Friday would confirm a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s FOMC statement was greeted at 140-04 and its reaction probed higher to 141-03. Thursday morning’s reaction to at least two high-profile econ reports erased the gain, and threatens to already end the corrective bounce and resume the decline.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Thursday back into the range helps to confirm Wednesday’s dip didn’t reverse the trend down, and that the 73.90-74.25 upside objective remains intact.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Nov, which trades at a 2-cent discount from Oct]… Wednesday’s drop from the 3.06 high down to 2.96 didn’t prevent greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength. Its reaction did surge, probing fresh highs to 1-cent above the 3.10 objective. Pullbacks must hold 3.00 as support to maintain upside momentum.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The multi-session range extended to a fifth session as its 1.1815 low was tested Wednesday, and held, surging back into the range up to 1.1875 in reaction to FOMC. Closing under 1.1785 would help to confirm a breakout’s validity. Bounces meanwhile should hold any test of 1.1900 resistance.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Wednesday to the range’s lower-end at its 1291.50 sell signal probed lower intraday under 1197.80. Almost any initial weakness Thursday would be credible for launching a new downleg.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s test of 14.56 didn’t extend higher, and didn’t hold up to suggest 14.80 might also be in-play. But the intraday reversal down to 14.40 doesn’t reverse momentum down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC events were greeted from the morning having gapped up hovered in positive territory. But it was a position of weakness at Tuesday’s close, which is what matters, having hovered above prior lows Tuesday despite probing lower overnight down to 139-17. Blipping-up in reaction to the news still has room up to 141-16 without even beginning to threaten reversing the trend up.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging Wednesday is too late to reject Monday’s surge to fresh highs. The 73.90-74.25 target area remains intact, especially so long as pullbacks hold 70.60 as support.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending down intraday for a change on Wednesday is greeting Thursday’s EIA report with a constructive 9-cent dip to 3.00, and upside potential to at least 3.12 in reaction to Thursday’s report.