Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s failed breakout attempt wasn’t repeated Tuesday. Neither did its rubber band stretch snap back down to fresh lows, although almost any early weakness would be credible for extending down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing around in the 1201.50-1209.50 range persisted through Tuesday, with the first breakout attempt still likely at least to return within the range before extending.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trading at or above the 14.33 buy signal for two consecutive sessions broke higher Tuesday. Even if only a false break, its near-term potential was to fill the gap above up to 14.56, which was tested at Tuesday’s high. Any higher would next target 14.80.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Three days of hovering just above the lows resolved down overnight to 139-17, but only probed new lows intraday Tuesday down to last week’s 139-22 lows. The interim shallow consolidation kept alive pessimism, making this leg likely to be brief or shallow or both. But Tuesday’s dip reflects optimism. Regardless, Wednesday’s FOMC is being greeted from a position of weakness.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-higher ranging Tuesday held up Monday’s surge to fresh highs, suggesting that any pullback would now likely recover and resume the rally to 73.90-74.20. A reaction down Wednesday can’t be prevented, but the EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The rally’s momentum remains very much intact and extended higher Tuesday. Even a reaction down on Wednesday can’t prevent greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Sep 26, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: As if the FOMC policy statement wasn’t exciting enough, the quarterly Fed Chair’s Q&A follows it. One and the other are the two most opportunistic trading environment for my measurements, because their setups tend to play–out very quickly.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
opened Monday within the Tu-Fri multi-session range, then surged to fresh highs above 1.1890 to attempt a breakout. But the afternoon was greeted back within the range, and back under 1.1785 would start to seal a top.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s reversal of fortune that went out testing the 1201.50 sell signal was reversed again Monday to attack the 1209.50 buy signal. But the range persisted.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing at or above the 14.33 buy signal Friday persisted through Monday, still fluctuating around 14.33 without either extending or reversing back down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above 140-04 had signaled the decline’s momentum was lapsing, with corrective bounce potential to 141-16, but Monday only ranged back down to and around 140-04.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s gap up on production news extended to fresh highs at 72.40. That was probed Monday morning up to 72.75, with the next higher objective being 73.90-74.20.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The two-day multi-session Thu-Fri range broke higher Monday morning to fresh highs for the recovery up to 3.04. Being a breakout, a second consecutive higher close on Tuesday would entrench the rally by requiring at least an eventual third higher close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 25, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Home price trends and home construction building activity come back into view as a new round of reports begin Tuesday. Their filter is recent glimpses of possible peaking. Meanwhile, any reaction to the pre-open reports is likely to be duplicated in reaction to a post-open report.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 9/22/18) …Higher stocks, literally and figuratively.
A fast-moving week, even for Barron’s
This week was interesting. The Dow finally joined S&Ps with its own new highs, ending in Quadruple Witch expiration, with the Pot stock frenzy getting greater exposure.
There’s an interesting week ahead, too. The FOMC policy statement may hike rates, the Fed chair’s quarterly Q&A is always fun to trade, and end-o’quarter portfolio window dressing could help to absorb dips and power rallies. All starting with what the U.S. already announced, $200 billion in tariffs against China to be issued Monday, who already announced $60 billion to be levied in retaliation.
Meanwhile, the bigger picture continues ratcheting higher, and pointing higher, with each higher high creating new pullback limits and targets. Specific levels and paths there are discussed in detail at the start of this week’s Saturday Review. I also update my Cannabis sector stock coverage and themes.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
TLRY, IIPR, TGODF, ACBFF, CGC, KSHB, FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, TSLA, NKE, T, GE
transcript