Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s break higher tested its 1.1865 bounce limit overnight, and largely held within Thursday’s 1.1825-1.1855 range intraday Friday. Closing back under 1.1785 would now signal the trend reversing down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s extension above 1209.50 to 1215.80 was absorbed before the open, disqualifying it as early strength which otherwise would have become a new upleg. The effort was undermined by a collapse to 1196.00 that ended the day testing thee 1201.50 sell signal.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight probing above the 14.33 buy signal had extended to 14.46 but its pre-open retraement eventually collapsed to uptrending support at 14.18 before ending back at the 14.33 buy signal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
All but confirming that closing above 140-04 had ended the decline’s momentum, Friday ranged narrowly sideways, still having room for a bigger corrective bounce before retesting the lows.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping back up Friday probed a slightly higher high up to 71.80 that was retraced back into Thursday’s range to fill the gap down to Thursday’s 70.20 close. Closing positive on the day but within Thursday’s range doesn’t fulfill the outstanding requirement for at least an eventual third higher close.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s surge to 2.99 was consolidated narrowly into the weekend, forming a Flag which is a continuation pattern that usually resolves up to resume the trend.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Recent “ineffectual optimism” wasn’t exploited Wednesday, which left the door open to extending down aggressively Thursday. To the contrary, fresh highs overnight gapped up sharply Thursday to test 1.1865, still having room up to 1.1845 before abandoning any near-term vulnerable to launching a new downleg — which would be confirmed only upon closing under 1.1785.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1201.50-1209.50 range’s upper-end was probed overnight, and again intraday Thursday up to 1213.00. Triggering it, and then confirming with a second consecutive higher close into the weekend would launch a new upleg, albeit likely temporary with unfinished business below still outstanding. Not triggering the 1209.50 buy signal, or not confirming it, could instead stretch the rubber band to snap back down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing the 14.33 buy signal overnight, or perhaps more accurately just overlapping it up to 14.38, was unable to trigger Thursday. But almost any further strength early Friday would be likely to extend higher into the weekend.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s early trading held a retest of the 139-26 support that had also held Wednesday, before reversing up to attack 140-20. Closing above 140-04 robs the decline of its momentum, so an immediate dip Friday would be likelier to hold if not also reverse up into the weekend.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to NOV, which is trading at a 25-cent discount to OCT]… Fresh highs overnight up to 71.35 were attacked post-open up to 71.25, as part of the same range, so no fresh high is required in this setup. More predictive is whether the confirmed breakout’s third higher close is fulfilled above 70.75. Closing under 69.05 would reverse the trend down.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength. Its knee-jerk reaction down to 2.88 snapped back up and extended sharply higher to 2.99, establishing the new rally leg underway.