Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite rejecting the brief probe above 1.17855‘s prior high Tuesday by reversing it to close under 1.1745, Wednesday’s price action only ranged narrowly, still needing to break under 1.1720 to launch a downleg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday continued bouncing around within the 1210.50-1209.50 range whose break would be likely to trend in that direction.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Momentary strength Wednesday tested the 14.33 buy signal, which otherwise held as resistance to keep alive the potential for probing fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sharply lower lows Wednesday fell to 139-23, the lowest levels since May’s bottom. The trend remains down so long as bounces close under 140-04, which was being tested Wednesday afternoon.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Greeting Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of strength was rewarded by rallying through the 70.35 filled gap up to 71.05, all but ensuring the 71.40 prior high will be retested.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday only consolidated Tuesday’s surge that had peaked at 2.93. But holding 2.91 keeps alive the surge’s upside momentum, greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s upward biased inside day reflects “ineffectual optimism.” Tuesday’s probe of fresh highs above 1.1800 must close back under Monday’s 1.1750 low to confirm, and back under 1.1720 would still signal the trend reversing down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still fluctuating between 1201.50-1209.50 Tuesday has failed to break either way which would signal the next leg’s direction.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still hovering under the 14.33 buy signal without extending down is not a position of strength, and the pattern remains vulnerable to extending down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap down to 141-08 under all prior lows wanted to be retested from above, which became possible after having bounced into Friday’s range. That had filled the gap back to Friday’s close, neutralizing its attraction and recovery potential. In fact, Tuesday gapped down to and through 141-08 on the way to fresh lows at 140-23.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up to the 69.50 buy signal instead of only probing it intraday from below was no better at extending through it. Tuesday’s high only filled the gap back to the week-old 70.35 high close by a nickel, one of the last two semblances of upside attractions. The second is the prior night’s 71.40 high, which also doesn’t otherwise require a retest. Now closing under 68.35 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to the adjusted 2.83 buy signal Friday extended higher through 2.87, filling a 3-week old gap up to 2.92. Closing higher Wednesday would help to confirm that momentum had reversed up.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s gap up back above Thursday afternoon’s low still produced only an “inside day” compared to Friday’s range. Its upward bias suggests the first range break will trend downward. Closing under 1.1720 would launch a downleg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s gap up above the 1201.50 sell signal peaked at the 1209.50 buy signal without triggering either.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s choppiness hardly threatened to trigger the 14.33 buy signal, which essentially defaults to being bearish and targeting fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Monday to fresh lows at 141-08 was recovered to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 141-22 close. The 141-08 gap open under all prior lows will want to be retested from above before a durable rally can begin, and meanwhile the decline’s momentum remains intact.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Retesting the 69.50 buy signal into and out of Monday’s open still didn’t trigger it. But momentum hasn’t reversed down until closing back under 67.80, so breaking higher by Tuesday morning would still be credible for extending.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up and firming intraday tested the lowered 2.83 buy signal. Recovering it through the close and then subsequently also recovering 2.87 would signal and confirm a new upleg underway.