Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 18, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No high-profile reports are scheduled Tuesday. But the post-open report is likely to duplicate any price reaction to the pre-open report.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 9/15/18) … How high?
The market’s new highs this week may be competing against Hurricane Florence for mainstream attention. That relative anonymity could be one of the more bullish factors, from a contrarian perspective. There’s also the upcoming expiration — Quad Witch, no less — which is unlikely to accompany a trend extreme. And just the ongoing bigger picture, a massive Complex Ascending Triangle that we’ve been discussing for months, whose minimum targets are being met only now.
How does that play out Sunday night and Monday morning, and into the week? We game out several paths, and entertain the potential for it all to go to pot instead… Speaking of which, I also update several previously highlighted Cannabis sector stocks and formally introduce a new one.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
TLRY, CGC, TGODF, IIPR, AMD, WDC, SYMC
transcript
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review… Please post comments and questions as they occur to you.
—————– (09/15/2018 09:32) —————–
Bill G: gm
David B: Good Morning
jp: gm
—————– (09/15/2018 09:34) —————–
Mark: gm
—————– (09/15/2018 10:00) —————–
Bill G: The ym had been lagging but this wk had relative strength. Maybe a top will be made at or near a new ath?
—————– (09/15/2018 10:04) —————–
Bill G: y
Bill G: Will get a lot of press
—————– (09/15/2018 10:08) —————–
David B: AMD – is this in a up crash?
—————– (09/15/2018 10:09) —————–
David B: WDC – is this is stock in a down crash?
—————– (09/15/2018 10:23) —————–
David B: jan candidate?
—————– (09/15/2018 10:24) —————–
Bill G: on wdc, what leg did you use to compute your targets?
David B: GE possible on the list as jan candidate?
—————– (09/15/2018 10:26) —————–
Bill G: already a tax loss
—————– (09/15/2018 10:27) —————–
David B: what about symc is this a candidate?
—————– (09/15/2018 10:31) —————–
Mark: thx much
Bill G: have a good one
David B: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing Thursday’s 1.1700high overnight was retraced already into Friday’s open, and the morning extended down to test the 1.1645 sell signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing overnight shallowly back above the 1209.50 buy signal was rejected even more substantially than was Wednesday’s probe, testing the 1201.50 sell signal.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Attacking the 14.33 buy signal again was rejected through Friday morning down to 14.10. Unless another rally were attempted coming out of the weekend, a drop to fresh lows is now likely.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Potential for forming a bottom wasn’t exploited as Friday’s open gapped down to and through Tuesday’s 142-00 close that already had held a test at Thursday’s open. The close under a multi-session range is a breakout, which a second consecutive lower close Monday would confirm. But the proximity to prior lows enables early strength Monday to test 142-26.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Attacking the 67.80 sell signal to within 15 cents Friday morning was recovered to probe momentarily above the 69.50 pullback limit. Its recovery through the close would target a retest of 71.20, probably through 71.40.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength didn’t ensure any reaction, let alone triggering the 2.87 buy signal which held. Nor has it prevented a break back down toward Monday’s 2.75 low.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Sep 17, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’ Fed survey has no track record for influencing price action, antough it can be high-profile.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET