Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping Thursday to test 1.1550 had served as the consequence of Wednesday’s ineffectual optimism. Already gapping up to 1.1600 Friday and retesting Wednesday’s highs makes 1.1600 new sell signal.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s post-close test of the 1191.50 was recovered overnight into a a surge through Friday morning that tested the next higher objective at 1215.00. Its test has room up to 1220.00 to fill the gap still outstanding there. Back under 1200.00 first would already resume the decline targeting 1272.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s post-close dip to 14.45 was reversed overnight to gap up back into the 14.63-14.80 range and extend through its upper-end. Potential for extending to 15.05 would be invalidated back under the range’s 14.63 lower-end, targeting an intraday test of 14.45 and probably also fresh lows under 14.30.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s inside day had formed position of strength, whether extending higher immediately or ensuring recovery from an interim dip. Friday morning’s dip to 145-03 did recover to test the Wed-Thu 145-23 highs by a couple of ticks, still likely to extend higher.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s inside day had formed a position of strength for not rejecting Wednesday’s gap up. Friday’s gap up to 68.90 confirmed that, still having potential to complete a corrective bounce up to 70.55 so long as pullbacks now hold 68.00-68.30 as support.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Recovering intraday from Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction down to EIA had itself stopped short of gaining traction. Back under 2.95 Friday morning extended down to the week’s lows, still targeting 2.85.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s “ineffectual optimism” that briefly probed above the rally’s 1.1625 target was reversed into Thursday afternoon down to 1.1550. Its likely minimum objective is to fill the gap outstanding from the 3-week old open under all prior lows at 1.1475, and potentially correct into the consolidation of the lows down to 1.1405.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reversing down from Wednesday’s opening gap up to 1207.50 resistance retested the 1195.00 buy signal and extended lower, attacking 1191.50 whose break would target 1172.50 and possibly also an intraday retest of the 1167.00 overnight low.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having failed to close above Wednesday’s test of 14.80, overnight weakness greeted Thursday’s open at or under the 14.63 sell signal and extended to within a nickel of filling the week-old gap back down to 14.45. Filling it may not hold initially, but it would be optimal before launching a recovery.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Only momentarily piercing the 145-23 high of Wednesday’s “ineffectual optimism” overnight did not qualify as breaking through it, nor did Thursday morning’s brief piercing of it. But neither suggested that Wednesday’s fresh highs were being rejected, which can be bullish when confronted with ineffectual optimism.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s rally to 68.00 was probed only briefly overnight, stopping short of its next higher objective at 68.32. Thursday’s open was back within Wednesday’s range, as was the entire session.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was not greeted from a position of strength, but its knee-jerk reaction down was very shallow and very brief, and recovered into positive territory to attack prior highs up to 2.98. Closing any higher Friday would be entirely credible — if not also the minimum requirement — to extend the rally instead of pulling back to 2.85.