Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already having fulfilled both higher objectives Tuesday at 1.1545 and 1.1625, while testing “higher prior lows” from the decline, trying to probe higher overnight to 1.1645 wasn’t likely to extend Wednesday. Its reaction down Wednesday morning didn’t actually reverse the trend down, however likely that may be, and extending the rally would next target 1.1705.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s close above 1195.00 extended higher overnight and gapped up Wednesday to test the next higher resistance at 1207.50. Reacting straight back down through the morning filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s  close. Back under 1191.50 would reverse the trend back down, but there’s otherwise room up to 1215.00-1220.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing the 14.63-14.80 range’s upper-end overnight was retraced into Wednesday’s open, dipping back into the range, instead of extending to 15.05 above, and still attracted to 14.45 below.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday and probing a fresh high wasn’t assured of extending higher. It would likely be at a steep slope, or else the rally would otherwise have peaked. Retracing the intraday fresh high probe back under Monday’s high would be “ineffectual optimism” and more vulnerable to reversing down.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallying overnight gapped up to fresh recovery highs and extended to test the week-old 67.50 gap up above prior highs, neutralizing its attraction above. Closing above its 67.75 intraday would keep alive the next higher attraction at 68.30.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The attraction back down to 2.85 remains intact so long as the rally back to prior highs isn’t extended Wednesday. Especially on a closing basis, which would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength. Wednesday morning’s dip back down to prior highs at 2.95 doesn’t create any added strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The confirmed breakout from 1.1385 extended higher overnight and fulfilled its minimum objective at 1.1545. Consolidating at its resistance into and out of Tuesday’s open broke higher during the noon hour to fulfill the next higher objective at 1.1625. That’s also “higher prior lows,” so a reaction down is likely.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight probed the 1195.00 buy signal and triggered it through the close by $5. Upside could be limited to 1205.50 or extend to 1215.00-1220.00, but probably be only temporary with the outstanding attraction below to retest the 1167.00 overnight low down to 1172.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight choppiness repeated Monday’s post-close bounce to 14.80. Continuing to hold its resistance makes the gap back down to 14.45 likely to be filled before a reliable rally can begin.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s fresh high resolved similarly to last Wednesday’s recovery to fresh relative highs, by also dipping back into the multi-session range under 145-00 from which the prior day’s rally had originated. There’s room down to 144-18 before suggesting momentum is reversing down, instead of more likely extending the rally.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Finally rallying Tuesday morning may have launched a rally targeting the week-old opening gap back up to 67.50. Closing under 65.00 would otherwise signal a false break and momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up to a fresh high seemed to confirm Monday’s gap up from Sunday night’s gap down. A fresh high close would suggest the pullback is being ignored to resume the rally. But Tuesday’s 2.98 high qualified as neither a breakout nor a reversal, and remains vulnerable to a reversal that fulfills a test of 2.85 as support.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s close (well) above the 1.1385 buy signal had initially gapped down a little at Monday’s open. But post-open action trended up relentlessly to confirm, targeting 1.1540-1.1545.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gap;ping up Monday to 1195.00 eventually probed higher intraday, but only briefly as the afternoon dipped back down to 1195.00. The gap back down to Friday’s 1184.00 close — if not also 1172.50 — are still likelier to be tested before a recovery can be credible.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging overnight persisted through Monday, still being likely to test 14.45 below before a recovery can be credible.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday extended to Wednesday and Friday’s 145-00 high extended to fresh highs intraday. May’s pivotal high to July’s actual high is now essentially tested, so the pattern is vulnerable to extending higher to probe 147-00.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to Oct, which trades at a 55-60 cent discount to Sep]… Flat-to-higher ranging Monday continued Friday’s fluctuation around the pattern’s 65.50 buy signal. Triggering it through the close would target 68.25-69.25.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday helped to confirm that Friday’s gap up into the rally’s target area was only noise. But the gap down didn’t extend, leaving outstanding the room below at 2.85.