Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s bounce back to Tuesday’s highs attacking overnight highs was already retracing to gap down Thursday back at Wednesday’s 1.1615 open. Which was also the sell signal. And the overnight retracement extended down sharply through the noon hour to Monday’s internal support at 1.1580. But our premise is that the false bounce will be punished by much more than just retracing its origin.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Although there’s no longer any “unfinished business below,” a close above 1229.50 will be needed to avoid fresh lows down to 1201.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s flat-to-higher ranging was too meek to offset the outstanding attraction back down to 15.25, whose delay is increasingly likely to require a deeper probe. Gapping up or otherwise surging through 15.60 would get some benefit of the doubt for staging a detour higher.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still hovering around the 142-18 sell signal at Thursday’s open didn’t qualify as triggering it, but neither did it reject the break back under 143-02. Nevertheless, firming Thursday retested 143-02 and the 143-12 buy signal as resistance. Not extending higher Friday would all but require fresh lows.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s plunge only consolidated Thursday, which leaves potential for extending down, but doesn’t require it. There is no active signal.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction to the EIA report could have been down, but only temporarily. The news was greeted from a the position of strength of new highs, but new highs that had just fulfilled their 2.93-2.95 target. The reaction was actually muted, as the session fluctuated narrowly within the target range.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing above Tuesday range overnight up to 1.1662 was rejected enough for Wednesday’s open to gap down to Tuesday’s low at the 1.1615 sell signal. The signal held, but its reaction remained within Tuesday’s range. Resolving down remains likely so long as Tuesday’s 1.1640 high holds as resistance.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s interim weakness was recovered intraday. The downside momentum remains intact unless 1229.00 were recovered on a closing basis.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping again Wednesday morning came the closest yet to neutralizing the 3-week old gap down at 15.25, which has been tested only overnight, and continues to inhibit a recovery. The continued delay and repeated “ineffectual optimism” suggests a deeper probe of fresh lows, first.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still not reacting back up from the 142-18 sell signal, let alone back above the 143-02 buy signal, further suggests — if not confirms — that Monday’s momentary probe above 143-02 was a false break that stretched the rubber band to snap back down.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s inside day and second consecutive session above the 68.35 pullback limit didn’t prevent gapping down Wednesday and trending down sharply through the morning .

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 2.93-2.95 target was fulfilled early Wednesday, which creates a little vulnerability ahead of Thursday’s EIA report. But not as much vulnerability as the position of strength of greeting the news from fresh highs. A knee-jerk reaction down would be likely to recover.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday from Monday’s new low duplicated the same reversal setup as at the range’s 2-3 prior lows. Extending the reversal becomes less likely with each occurrence, as Tuesday’s post-open dip from 1.1645 resistance wasn’t yet deep enough to signal momentum reversing down. But not immediately extending higher does undermine even a corrective bounce.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s open gapped up to 1222.50 resistance, essentially filling the gap back up to Friday’s close. Monday’s 1216.00 opening gap should be filled before any credible recovery, and the trend meanwhile remains down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping overnight to attack the 3-week old opening gap down at 15.25 was recovered into Tuesday’s open, once again failing to complete the outstanding test intraday. The open filled the gap outstanding from Friday’s 15.47 close, allowing a very bearish reaction down Wednesday. Not already exploiting that opportunity at the open would make a bigger bounce likely.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s opening surge above the 143-02 buy signal had been suspiciously slow to develop. Drifting back down overnight increased suspicions, which were confirmed by drifting even lower intraday to attack the 142-18 sell signal.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already rallying overnight out of Monday’s pullback limit test only attacked Monday’s high, and formed only an inside day. But the 68.85 pullback limit held again as support, which is still likely to probe the 70.45 upper-end of last week’s Island, presumably on the way to fulfilling the 71.75 corrective bounce target.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s recovery from gapping down and probing lower at its open already confirmed what Friday’s break above 2.83 had signaled. Gapping up and trending higher Tuesday to 2.90 confirms 2.93-2.95 remains in-play.