Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 8, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No econ reports are scheduled Wednesday besides the otherwise non-influential mortgage apps. But the pre-open Fed speaker is the first Fed speaker in a couple of weeks, and the first since last week’s FOMC policy statement. The 10-year note auction comes at an interesting point in the bond market’s chart.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Tom Barkin Speaks
8:45 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trending down throughout Friday made Monday likely to probe fresh lows at least momentarily. In fact, overnight weakness gapped down to fresh lows. Immediately bouncing did manage to touch Friday’s “higher prior lows,” so that retesting Monday’s lows could form a bottom. There is otherwise no bottoming pattern or signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s bounce was rejected Sunday night, greeting Monday’s open with a gap down to new lows. Bouncing into the noon hour held resistance at Friday’s low before ending the under all prior lows. Any bottoming pattern would require two days to form at this stage, and the trend otherwise remains down.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down to fresh lows for the decline still avoided filling the 3-week old gap down. Testing it Thursday night did not qualify, as the gap fill is required intraday.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night only ranged narrowly after Friday’s bounce to the 143-02 buy signal. It resolved up without further delay Monday morning. Two separate patterns are in-play, and a second consecutive higher close on Tuesday would target 144-12, potentially also 146-00.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s drop held its pullback limit, and already recovered the pullback’s origin Sunday night. A shallower dip Monday morning also held its pullback limit. The pattern has no bullish reason to further delay retesting last week’s Island pattern, which can be probed up to 71.75.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s weakness was recovered Monday morning, helping to confirm that Friday’s trending to fresh highs has reversed momentum up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 7, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s jobs openings report is the essentially the session’s only relevant report. It already has a track record for influencing price action, which its solo appearance can magnify.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/4/18) …Ramming speed.
Friday’s recovery back up to last week’s high close seems to confirm the interim dip was only a temporary correction. That temporary correction interrupted the prior upleg from rewarding its confirmed breakout with a third higher close. Presumably, the reward is soon to come. The path there and its potential resolutions are detailed in this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
NFLX, FB, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, TSLA, SQ, WDC, CRM, ARNA, IIPR
—————– (08/04/2018 09:30) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
jp: gm.20 6
—————– (08/04/2018 09:32) —————–
Bill G: gm
David B: Good Morning
Mark: gm
jp: gm
—————– (08/04/2018 09:49) —————–
Mark: how many days can it take to get to 2909 or 2936?
—————– (08/04/2018 09:56) —————–
Mark: SQ – doubletopped under 73 target that was just formed after earnings. Any chance for 79.5 target?
—————– (08/04/2018 10:00) —————–
Bill G: Various times this year I have read of similarities to a 1937 analog. The mkt continues to be very close. In 1937 ,the mkt did not make a new high (82% retrace) The mkt fell apart starting in mid Aug
—————– (08/04/2018 10:03) —————–
David B: WDC,CRM
—————– (08/04/2018 10:16) —————–
Bill G: fwiw, APPL completed a Demark combo sell signal on the daily chart on Fri by my count. Although too early, the same sig will be true on the monthly chart with a positive close at the end of the month, above 190.29.
—————– (08/04/2018 10:19) —————–
Mark: SQ above
—————– (08/04/2018 10:24) —————–
Mark: the Q is if it gets even more exessive b4 a big downleg from 79.5
Mark: just happened
Mark: yes
—————– (08/04/2018 10:30) —————–
David B: closing above what level what indicate a bottom?
—————– (08/04/2018 10:35) —————–
Bill G: I don’t know an answer on gaps in his work. I use the completion of a sell sig by Demarks work as the completion og a setup not the signal for shorting. Need some indication of weekness as a trigger.
Mark: thx much
—————– (08/04/2018 10:39) —————–
Bill G: thanks
David B: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!