Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh lows though Friday’s open extended the retest of three-week old prior lows down to 1.1595. Their 1.1636 gap down had been filled already Thursday, so closing lower Friday would all but ensure at least probing lower Monday — regardless of Monday’s resolution.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight reacted up Friday morning to retest 1227.00 as resistance. The test held, keeping alive the drop’s momentum which still requires at least an eventual third lower close and likely tests of 1209.50 and potentially 1188.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight selling was recovered into Friday’s open, and the overnight 15-cent drop to 15.25 disappeared as Friday gapped up. Testing 15.25 would neutralize the three-week old gap down that still wants to be tested from above.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report bounced to touch the 143-02 buy signal, but only to touch it and not trigger it. Extending higher would leave no “unfinished business below,” and extending higher is likely so long as pullbacks now hold 142-16 as support. Closing any lower would more likely resume the decline.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday surge back above 68.35 up to previous resistance at 69.25 was retraced Friday to test 68.05 as support. Holding its test keeps alive upside momentum targeting the Island and 71.75.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction had held Tuesday’s 2.83 prior high, but Friday gapped up through it and trended slightly higher. I’m treating this as a confirmed breakout, next targeting 2.93-2.95 so long as 2.78 holds as support.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The break under 1.1725 had ended Wednesday testing the 1.1700 sell signal. It broke sharply lower Thursday to fulfill its objective, filling the two-week old gap down at 1.1636. That’s attacking the lower-end of two-month long Descending Triangle, so a recovery can’t afford to be delayed while the pattern is vulnerable to launching a significant downleg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
There was already no bullish reason for Wednesday to have retested 1225.00, which Tuesday’s spike down had neutralized already. But Thursday gapped down through 1225.00 and extended lower intraday to test prior lows and  1220.00. This is similar to a confirmed breakout, and at least an eventual third lower close is likely.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Returning Wednesday to the 15.40 sell signal wasn’t quick to break under it Thursday, barely probing under it through the morning. A delayed reaction would be likely Friday if the break is valid.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap up to Wednesday’s 142-16 high soon reacted down almost a half-point, which was more than enough to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s close — a close that otherwise would inhibit a recovery. A recovery isn’t signaled, not without at least closing Thursday back above 142-12/142-16 to greet Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength. But there would be no “unfinished business below.”

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s price action essentially confirms the recent dip was only a temporary correction. An overnight dip attacking 66.90 was already reversing up to greet Thursday open at 67.25. The reversal soon extended sharply test 69.35. Just closing above 68.35 already signals momentum is reversing up, presumably targeting 71.25.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still testing 2.76 at Wednesday’s close had prevented greeting Thursday EIA report from a position of weakness. It wasn’t necessarily a position of strength, but the knee-jerk reaction surged to attack Tuesday’s 2.83 high. Closing higher Friday would suggest the pullback avoided reversing the trend down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction down from Tuesday’s gap up had held 1.1725 through the close. Wednesday resumed the decline to test 1.1700 before the FOMC news. That filled the gap back down to Friday’s close, where closing any lower would launch a new downleg. The immediate reaction bounce, avoiding the sell signal. Closing above 1.1740 would triggger a reversal.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another choppy directionless session Wednesday essentially tested both ends of its narrow range. The intraday test of 1227.00 was ongoing into the close, and reacted up later on the FOMC policy statement.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dropping back down to the 15.40 sell signalWednesday held as support through the close, and bounced slightly afterward on the FOMC policy statement.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Wednesday to 142-14 was several ticks above Monday’s low. Probing it down to 141-27 was recovered back into Monday’s range. There is on unfinished business below if the trend wants to reverse up, which would be triggered above 142-26 and 143-02.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending the reaction down from testing 70.30 tested prior lows at 67.50. Almost any strength Thursday would be likely to extend and at least retest Monday’s Island pattern, if not also probe it up to 71.75.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already testing 2.76 continued testing it throughout Wednesday, neither extending down nor rejecting it. Closing any lower weould signal the trend reversing back down. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.