Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 2, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, and high-profile, but none of its items are reliably influential to price action. The post-open Factory Orders could either reinforce or diverge from Wednesday’s PMI blowout, but its relevance is limited AFTER the FOMC meeting.
Bank of England policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
If at first… fail, fail again? Gapping up Tuesday to retest last week’s high up to 1.1790 was reversed back into negative territory. The 1.1725 buy signal held as support, but so did resistance. A fresh high would be highly reliable for extending, but not until then.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s open filled the 1225.50 two-week old low’s gap down by $3, neutralizing its attraction below. Bouncing into the noon hour attacked 1238.00. Both a buy and sell signal were tested intraday. Closing at any time beyond either end of their range would be likely to extend in that direction.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s volatiilty stopped short on its lower-end from neutralizing the gap down’s attraction at 15.25. Firming instead momentarily tested the 15.60 buy signal. Closing beyond either end of the range would be likely to extend in that direction.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s bounce firmed overnight to test the 143-04 bounce limit. The testing persisted throughout Tuesday, with only one early touch of the 143-12 buy signal’s resistance.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still not extending Sunday night’s rally Monday night, Tuesday’s open slid to fill the gap back down to Friday’s close. Its attraction below is neutralized, but until it’s also broken, the recovery could still reach 71.75. Otherwise, .
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to August]… Once again probing slightly higher highs intraday has failed to close decisively above them,
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 1, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s FOMC day, but also payrolls week, so jobs data take a higher profile. The pre-open ADP report offers an opportunity to gauge market anticipations. Meanwhile, any noticeable reaction to pre-open reports is likely to be duplicated in reaction to post-open reports. And there are 2-3 high-profile, reliably influential items scheduled. None of which includes the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Treasury Refunding Announcement
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping back up to the new 1.1725 buy signal Monday extended quickly to touch the 1.1755 old buy signal. Closing above 1.1765 would help to confirm that last week’s pullback had reversed up, targeting 1.1850.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s inside day avoided touching either the 1227.50 or 1217.00 buy and sell signals. Still not rejecting the dip into Friday’s open does keep live the downside momentum.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrowly ranging Monday avoided touching either of the buy or sell signals at 15.60 and 15.40, respectively. Still not rejecting the dip into Friday’s open does keep alive the downside momentum.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Last week ended choppily within the range, which I pointed out was not to be confused with stability. Sunday night’s weakness extended to fresh relative lows. Monday’s gap down was retraced back up to prior lows, continuing the pattern of “ineffectual optimism” that has been bearish from a contrarian perspective.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s dip to the 68.33 pullback limit was already resolving Sunday night — by firming, and then surging into Monday’s open through the 69.25 buy signal. Already testing 70.00 resistance still has potential up to 71.75 simply as a correction.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up another couple of cents Monday to 2.81 suggests the bounce is extending. There is no requirement to fulfill higher objectives, so not rejecting Monday’s higher close immediately Tuesday would make the rally likely to extend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 31, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The 2-day FOMC meeting starts, which might get attention Tuesday. But the two post-open econ reports are reliably influential to price action. Note that the PMI is released several minutes earlier to institutional subscribers, and their reaction in the market is usually duplicated when released to the rest of us. Also, any noticeable reaction to a pre-open report is likely to be duplicated by a post-open report.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
