Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.1755 that began triggering post-close Wednesday up to 1.1787 was retraced ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy statement. But a blip-up quickly collapsed to under 1.1755, and extended down sharply to 1.1682. The nearest buy signal is 1.1740, but just closing back above 1.1725 would at least continue forming a base.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another test of recent range’s upper-end was stationed overnight when Thursday dipped to Wednesday’s low. Ending in negative territory would have confirmed the “ineffectual optimism.” Otherwise, any early strength Friday would be credible for rallying into the weekend.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still testing the recent range’s upper-end overnight, but not trending up, left the intraday session on Friday to retrace back down to Wednesday’s close. That fills its gap, so early strength Friday would be credible for extending higher through the morning. Otherwise, closing any lower Friday would target a retest of the prior week’s lows.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 143-12 had held Wednesday’s bounce and resolved down overnight to attack Monday’s 142-21 low. Stopping optimistically short to within 1 tick of it before reacting up Thursday suggests that it will break lower.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s close above 68.82 improved by a dime Thursday, helping to confirm the bounce is underway and targeting 70.30 then 71.75.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing above 2.78 intraday in reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was retraced, but not reversed. Resuming the decline should be obvious Friday morning to avoid a bigger bounce.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The cycle repeated Wednesday — early strength followed by a fresh low that was recovered to attack the earlier strength. Wednesday was the first instance of this cycle developing entirely intraday, suggesting that it is nearing a resolution. Back above 1.1755 would target 1.1850, in what should be a swift move since the pattern has already backed-and-filled.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up to the recent range’s 1230.00 upper-end spent the day ranging around the range’s upper-end exclusively in positive territory, but without a breakout. That’s “ineffectual optimism,” which can be bullish if followed by aggressive buying early Thursday.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday to test Tuesday’s high above 15.60 repeated Tuesday’s “ineffectual optimism” by remaining in positive territory but not closing above prior highs. This pattern can repeat indefinitely, so its hesitating gains are not compelling to short. And the door remains open to a surge targeting 15.80 or 16.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming up to the 143-12 bounce limit Wednesday held, without reversing back under 143-02 where the decline would signal it is extending. The buy signal remains unchanged at 144-08.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s favorable reaction to the EIA report extended through the 68.82 buy signal up to 69.70 which is now targeting at leas 71.75 as a correction. Any higher would start to suggest a retest of the prior highs.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday tested 2.78 which must hold as resistance to maintain the decline’s momentum. Holding its test through the close, and leaving outstanding the gap back down to Tuesday’s close, is greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping overnight to 1.1700 had recovered to open flat Tuesday, and then improved up to 1.1765. But the session turned negative, holding the critical 1.1725 pullback limit which keeps alive the 1.1850 upside attraction.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight dip to 1218.00 was recovered to open flat Tuesday, but only improved to attack 1230.00. The restrained optimism helps to dismiss the shallow pullbacks that should still fill last Thursday’s 1215.00 opening gap before completing a bottom.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Falling back to 15.35 overnight was recovered so much that Tuesday’s open gapped up to the past week’s 15.55 highs. Its brief probe was retraced back under the prior highs. But positive territory was maintained throughout, after gapping up, which is “ineffectual optimism.” Almost any delay to extending higher Wednesday would all but ensure retesting last Thursday’s 15.23 gap down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still probing under the 143-02 target Tuesday morning down to 142-21 would have allowed lowering the bounce limit, if 143-02 isn’t recovered through the close. Which a late bounce up to 143-07 suggests. Otherwise, closing under 143-02 would all but confirm that an even deeper decline is underway.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s opening test of the 68.82 buy signal had failed, and was eventually retraced overnight to the 67.50 lower prior high’s support. All of which was recovered into Tuesday’s open, which retested 68.82. The signal held again, but it was still being tested, and not necessarily rejected. Extending higher at Wednesday’s open would be credible for targeting the 71.75 corrective bounce target.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday held support at last Thursday’s opening print, without recovering or extending from there. Tuesday only ranged sideways, like Monday’s post-open action, still likely at least to probe fresh lows.