Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 25, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The recent deluge of Housing sector data ends on Wednesday, and fittingly with definitive endpoints. Whether MBA apps and New sales confirm or diverge from the sector’s slowdown story that may be forming, markets will have something to digest. Any obvious reaction to the pre-open report is likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open report.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially firming Sunday night to fresh recovery highs at 1.1800 was retraced before Monday’s open to gap down slightly and extend down to 1.1740 support. Momentum did not reverse down, keeping alive the attraction back up to 1.1850 so long as 1.1725 holds as support.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s initial strength to test 1235.00 was retraced into Monday’s open as the morning dipped to attack 1222.00. Closing back above 1230.00 would be more reliable for launching an upleg.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trying to probe higher Sunday night was retraced back toward Thursday night’s lows Monday morning, maintaining higher highs and higher lows that keep alive potential for launching a rally leg.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s drop to the 144-08 target held through Sunday night but then gave way to the next lower objective at 143-02 down to 142-28. The bounce limit is now 143-12 to maintain the decline’s momentum.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s strength up to 69.30 was on-track to extend Thursday’s recovery above 68.80, despite Friday not having confirmed. But Monday was more in sync with Friday, as intraday action reacted back down into negative territory testing the low pattern’s 67.60 as support. Closing above 68.80 would still be credible for launching at least a corrective bounce targeting 71.70.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday and Friday’s testing 2.78 resistance had threatened to violate the downside momentum, but Sunday night’s gap down and Monday’s testing of 2.71 continue to point lower.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue July 24, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s post-open PMI is the session’s only econ report with a track record for influencing price action. Others may be high-profile. The pre-open Housing sector report could be influential, following last week’s surprising slowdown in new home starts.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/21/18) …Volatility intact.
This week’s Saturday Review beings by repeating the bigger picture resolutions of the massive Complex Ascending Triangle which reaches back to January-February highs. The path for breaking lower without ever probing new highs is outlined, as is the likelier rally scenarios and their targets.
Meanwhile, contradictions between Monday’s bearish WedEX influence and the Isolation setup’s requirements are described. Two open’s allow them to co-exist through Monday morning — opening flat or gapping up, the latter likelier to be a more enjoyable trade. Invalidating one or the other setup should be predictable, too. Regardless, Sunday evening’s price action could already define the intraday path.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
NFLX, AMZN, FB, AAPL, GOOG, TSLA
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!