Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Narrow overnight ranging seemed unaware of China’s devaluation. But it eventually rallied, gapping up through the 1.1725 resistance’s buy signal that had only been touched Thursday. This fulfills the second consecutive higher close required to put into play a retest of the recent 1.1850 high.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping overnight to 1215.30 came within a dime of filling the gap back to Thursday’s gap down. That was close enough to react up into Friday’s open, which extended higher. Closing above Thursday’s 1229.60 high is close enough to signal momentum has reversed up. “Higher prior lows” to 1238.00 is a minimum upside objective. Regardless, an intraday test of 1215.20 would have been optimal, and still would be optimal to completing a durable bottom.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The decline’s 12.25 target was retested overnight, filling the gap back to Thursday’s open. Already recovering into Friday’s open extended through Thursday’s 15.48 high which would be bullish if recovered through the close. Upside potential could easily test 15.78 regardless of the resolution.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s fresh low was too brief to fulfill Monday’s “warning shot,” especially when the recovery once again stopped well short of rewarding its buyers. Narrow ranging through Friday’s open eventually broke sharply lower to fulfill the closes lower objective at 144-08. The fresh low close into the weekend suggests at least a temporary lower low Monday.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep, which trades at a 1.75 discount to Aug]… Thursday’s recovery above its last relative high still needed confirmation from a second consecutive higher close Friday that momentum is reversing up. The early recovery was just enough, but never extended higher intraday.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction up had held the 2.78 resistance which Friday morning did test. Until that’s recovered, the pattern remains likely to resume its decline.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday night’s drop gapped down Thursday under the 1.1665 support that had defined Wednesday’s low. Testing four-week old 1.1620-1.1625 support reacted up again Thursday, first bouncing and then surging back into positive territory to 1.1725 resistance. Closing any higher Friday would target the gap back up to 1.1850.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending down overnight and gapping down sharply to test 1211.00 firmed through the morning, then surged out of the noon hour’s interest rate comments. The gap back up to Wednesday’s 1228.00 close was nearly filled. Regardless, Thursday’s 1215.00 opening print can now be filled from above to form a durable bottom.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down to test 15.20 had consolidated back to the decline’s 15.25 target area when the interest rate comments triggered a sure that touched Wednesday’s 15.42 “higher prior lows.” Now Thursday’s opening print can be filled from above to form a durable bottom.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing Monday morning’s low down to 144-12 stopped short of its 144-08 potential before surging once again back into the 145-02/145-25 range. While Monday’s dip warned of a deeper probe coming, could Thursday’s dip be that completed probe? Probably not, but less so if Thursday’s bounce isn’t retraced into the weekend.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Closing above Tuesday’s 68.45 interim high — more decisively than Wednesday — suggests that a bottom is forming. A second consecutive higher close is required to confirm.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA reprot from a position of weakness only gapped down and probed fresh lows down to 2.70. The knee-jerk reaction surged back up to 2.77. The outside day probed above Wednesday’s highs, which doesn’t require any upside follow-through, but should avoid probing above Thursday’s highs to maintain the decline’s momentum.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still trending down overnight to 1.1653 gapped down Wednesday to retest the 1.1665 support that had held night’s low, and had launched the interim rally. Rallying straight back up into the afternoon filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s close, and extending any higher Thursday morning would be likely to extend intraday.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s sharp decline to fresh lows from the two-day range all but required probing lower lows Wednesday. Gapping down fulfilled the fresh lows, then bounced back into Tuesday’s range up to 1229.00. The 1223.60 open’s gap down under all prior lows can now be filled and neutralize its attraction.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sliding sharply Tuesday extended overnight to gap down Wednesday at 15.45. Bouncing back up to Tuesday’s 15.55 higher prior lows now allows a retest of Wednesday’s opening gap down to form a durable bottom.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still not rejecting Monday morning’s brief probe under the 145-02/145-25 range’s low to 144-23 continued making its break likelier. Even gapping up Wednesday to test 145-10 was reversed back under Tuesday’s lows to 144-27.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness avoided fresh lows, but still greeted Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. Gapping down to attack Tuesday’s low reacted back up to test Thursday’s high. Extending any higher Thursday morning would suggest the pullback or first downleg had ended.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s fresh lows all but confirmed the decline’s momentum remains intact, absorbing the Sunday-Monday night choppy bouncing. Not recovering any relevant resistance through the close greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.