Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s shallow dip had nevertheless held a relevant support at 1.1740 before recovering to attack the morning’s high. But it still needed a second consecutive higher confirming close. Which didn’t come, as Tuesday morning trended back down to and through Friday’s close to attack 1.1700.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight rally held the 1245.50 bounce limit but still gapped up slightly above Monday’s 1240.00 close. Then price plunged back through the decline’s 1237.50 target to fresh lows testing 1226.00. After Monday’s low had neutralized the “unfinished business below” at Friday’s opening gap down, there was no bullish reason for any further weakness, enabling Tuesday’s sizeable reaction.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down back to Friday’s shallow low proved that previous bottoming attempts were ‘ineffectually optimistic” as the morning slid sharply to attack 15.55.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
If Monday’s probe under the channel’s 145-02 lower-end were a false break, then Tuesday should have rejected the probe by rallying sharply. But price only hovered, suggesting that Monday’s probe was a warning shot across the bow. Breaking above Monday’s high through Wednesday’s open would be credible for launching another bounce, but at least another downleg has become more likely.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Regardless of having fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s minimum objective with Monday’s fresh low close, no buy signal had formed, and Tuesday probed slightly lower lows intraday.. Then it recovered positive territory, albeit only slightly positive, but not confirming the decline’s momentum.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s choppy bounce had tried extending slightly higher overnight to 2.79, but Monday morning drop to fresh lows at 2.73 essentially proved the decline remains intact. That’s probably not enough consequence for the failed choppy bounce, suggesting that lower lows remain in-play.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday to test 1.1770 resistance reacted down to 1.1750 support, which held and almost recovered 1.1770 again. Extending higher Tuesday would next target filling last Monday’s gap open back up to the 1.1850 original corrective bounce target.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight held 1245.50 resistance and reversed down through the morning to fill the gap back to Friday’s 1238.40 gap down. It required being filled after testing “higher prior lows,” but Monday’s inside day must await closing above Sunday night’s 1245.80 interim higher to signal momentum reversing up. Downside momentum otherwise remains intact.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Sunday night to attack Friday’s 15.90 high was retraced entirely back down to Friday’s low attacking 15.75. This is neither a buy signal or a sell signal, but neither does it establish that Friday’s drop and optimistic low has yet attracted strong-handed buyers. Probing again above 15.90 would be credible for extending higher intraday, but the decline’s momentum otherwise remains intact.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Greeting the new week from the range’s 145-25 upper-end once again reversed back down to its 145-02 lower-end Monday morning. But the lower-end was also probed down to 144-23, albeit only momentarily before recovering back into the range. Only closing under 144-23 would signal a new downtrend underway.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s confirmed breakout from 74.00 had bounced Friday, but gapping down Monday extended intraday to fresh lows testing 67.60. The pattern’s minimum eventual third lower close is now fulfilled. More lower closes are pssible, but the bounce limit is now 69.60.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Bouncing Sunday night to 2.77 was reversed to fresh lows Monday morning at 2.73. A post-open bounce retraced the overnight highs. This stage of the decline cannot tolerate much if any delay to extending lower, to avoid at least a corrective bounce.