Saturday Review
CANCELLED — Saturday Review — CANCELLED
The eSignal data manager or password authentication function (or both) are not responding this morning. So, today’s Saturday Review is cancelled. I will record a bigger picture analysis if/when charts are restored.
One item I had planned to explore was this interesting observation by John Hussman:
Presently, Apple is valued at 5.1% of GDP, Amazon at 4.8%, Alphabet (Google) at 4.6%, Facebook at 3.3%, and Netflix at 0.8% of GDP. That’s a total market capitalization of nearly 20% of GDP across 5 stocks. It’s worth remembering that historically, the pre-bubble norm for market capitalization to GDP, adding up every nonfinancial company in the stock market, was only about 60%. At secular lows like 1974 and 1982, the ratio fell to 30% of GDP – for the entire market.
A similar observation could have been made with equal concern at any time during the past many months, regardless of the different percentages. So, the reading doesn’t have much timing value, and it may be greater months from now. Although, I doubt that. As I began noting about FAANGS with the NFLX earnings plunge, and reiterated with the FB and TWTR plunges: Growth expectations and valuations aside, these price reactions are at the very least, raising concerns among so-called “hedge fund hotels” that more attractive pricing may lie ahead.
And the FAANGS market segment losing buying demand at the margins can be magnified to great effect. Which may be happening already. But the death of leadership tends to be the penultimate victim. Outperforming laggards often defines the last upleg before the greater fall. Rotation is not the smoothest gear change — Friday’s reaction to last week’s new recovery highs exemplifies would fit that description.
[Presumably, eSignal’s international customer service and technical support will become available Sunday night to correct the issue in time for the U.S. open. If not, then I’ll initiate an alternative overnight.]
Saturday Review Link
[NOTE THE NEW LINK ADDRESS]
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/21/18) …Volatility intact.
This week’s Saturday Review beings by repeating the bigger picture resolutions of the massive Complex Ascending Triangle which reaches back to January-February highs. The path for breaking lower without ever probing new highs is outlined, as is the likelier rally scenarios and their targets.
Meanwhile, contradictions between Monday’s bearish WedEX influence and the Isolation setup’s requirements are described. Two open’s allow them to co-exist through Monday morning — opening flat or gapping up, the latter likelier to be a more enjoyable trade. Invalidating one or the other setup should be predictable, too. Regardless, Sunday evening’s price action could already define the intraday path.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
NFLX, AMZN, FB, AAPL, GOOG, TSLA
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/14/18) …Which way to the detour?
Late-week action put into play higher objectives at 2809.00 and 2813.00-2816.75. Any higher would target 2836.00. Potentially new all time highs. There’s always a path, the question is whether it’s followed. The path down is only temporary if attempted before fulfilling the higher objective that late-week action put into play.
Meanwhile, the quarterly earnings onslaught is getting underway, and the market seems to want to react bullishly. The first week of earnings is often very different from its second week. So it’s interesting that monthly expiration interrupts the two weeks — we’ll have a WedEX signal addressing it on Wednesday.
These and other items are discussed in this week’s Saturday Review. Thanks to all who attended and participated.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GE, NFLX, AXP, ARNA, AAPL, STM, SYMC, CMG, WDC
transcript