Saturday Review
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET. Friday morning’s new relative highs held, attacking a relevant prior high. There’s a path to new highs, but it has specific characteristics. We’ll discuss that during this weekend’s Saturday Review. The quarterly earnings onslaught has begun, too. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request. I’ll also review several picks from this week’s Barrons Magazine “Roundtable” issue… See you there!
Sunday Review — holiday, payrolls, Bitcoin.
There’s no Saturday Review this weekend, but there’s still a few major points to consider for the upcoming week…
Holiday week — Independence Day is on Wednesday, and Tuesday is an early close. That’s odd, 3-day weekends are much more common among U.S. exchanges. Be careful not to force a trade, because it’s difficult to generate sponsorship for trending. So, consider giving reversals more credibility than breakout attempts.
Employment Situation week — Injecting this high-profile report into holiday shortened/interrupted week can have unusual reactions. The same may be said for Thursday’s FOMC Minutes, which isn’t usually released this late in the week.
Bitcoin, et al — The pattern’s latest downleg was defined before it began as an ongoing series of aggressive downlegs interspersed with tempered uplegs. And we would know that was ending if their roles were reversed, which was almost the case last Sunday (first arrow on nearby chart). The decline hasn’t worsened since then, and now another big upleg appeared late Saturday. I’m giving Bitcoin — and Ethereum — a benefit of the doubt that the reversal is developing. This may be premature, and the pattern still needs confirmation of more strong uplegs. The alternative is another steep downbar.
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Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/16/18) …Turning point.
This week closed unchanged from last Friday, but that’s a deceptively neutral characterization of the market. Actually, the week began with a rally that quickly peaked at what would be the week’s high. Four sessions ranged choppily sideways, supported by last Friday’s high/close. Then Friday’s gap extended down test last Friday’s low, and barely recovered to unchanged.
Maybe neutral isn’t a terribly wrong characterization. But it lacks two important pieces of context. That it was a contrast to the rally preceding it, and that it hovered around the maximum for being only a corrective leg.
Last week’s Saturday Review listed the litany of risks, influences and distractions that formed a minefield to cross. Perhaps ending neutral on the week is a success for the rally. But a lot of buying pressure was expended to maintain neutral, without gaining traction for the effort. Was it distribution? Did Friday’s dip satisfy the distribution? How will we know the difference on Monday?
These questions and more are addressed during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
ORCL, MU, AMTD, SQ, FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, TSLA
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/9/18) …Ka, boom.
An interesting week lies ahead, with all of the challenge and excitement of strolling through a virtual minefield. Distractions include meeting Kim Jong Un in Singapore and the World Cup “kick-off.” Inputs include heightened Brexit focus, and monetary policy statements from the FOMC (with Fed Chair Q&A), ECB and BOJ. And we’ll have a WedEX signal, this being expiration week — quadruple witch, no less.
The market is stepping steadfastly higher into the minefield. Most recently, recovering Thursday’s intraday and overnight selling at Friday’s open, and into the weekend. Cracks started showing among FANGs that triggered the pullback, so does the market’s brief drop reflect excessive pessimism, or does the quick recovery reflect excessive optimism? We could know as early as Monday, but probably no later than Tuesday.
We discuss possible paths and relevant levels in this weekend’s Saturday Review…
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CRM, CMG, HD, WDC, FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, TSLA
transcript
(06/09/2018 08:15)
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review… Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
(06/09/2018 09:32)
Mark: gm
David B: Good Morning
Bill G: gm
jp: gm
(06/09/2018 09:36)
David B: will we know early in the week which event the market is going to focus on?
(06/09/2018 09:50)
Bill G: Wouldn’t a move just short of 2800 look like pessimism?
(06/09/2018 09:55)
Bill G: Is a sld possible?
David B: option expiration
Bill G: BOJ
David B: usually reactions are weak hands?
(06/09/2018 09:59)
Mark: Neg correlation b/w indexes signaled Thu was not confirmed Fri. Would u expect it to be reinstated in liu of the multiple events next week?
(06/09/2018 10:02)
Bill G: I think Fri
(06/09/2018 10:13)
Bill G: Fri, FB up .22 but the other FANG stocks were dn again
(06/09/2018 10:20)
David B: CRM,CMG
(06/09/2018 10:23)
David B: HD,WDC
(06/09/2018 10:36)
Bill G: My data shows 186.43 as low
(06/09/2018 10:45)
Mark: thx
Bill G: thanks
David B: Thanks