Saturday Review

The market’s worst start to a new year, ever. More to come? Necessarily straight down? Detouring up could get how high? We answered these questions, while looking forward to this week’s WedEX and other influences like the coming 3-day holiday weekend.

 MP4 RECORDING

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMZN, PZZA, CW, SE, GPRO, TWTR, PICO, HAL, FEYE, AAPL, NXPI, LLL, SNH, ABTL, SIG, EQIX, BKX

01/09/2016 09:31:12 David B: Good Morning
01/09/2016 09:31:18 MK: gm
01/09/2016 09:31:22 Bill G: gm
01/09/2016 09:31:35 Mark Glezer: gm
01/09/2016 09:34:30 MK: oh nice so if you just do 5am start and 5pm boot
01/09/2016 09:34:34 MK: that works perfectly
01/09/2016 09:34:34 sm: annotations not being seen
01/09/2016 09:36:00 sm: right
01/09/2016 09:36:08 Mark Glezer: no
01/09/2016 09:36:09 MK: nope
01/09/2016 09:36:13 steve: not visible
01/09/2016 09:36:14 David B: no
01/09/2016 09:36:20 tom: not seeing
01/09/2016 09:36:28 David B: not visible
01/09/2016 09:36:48 David B: no
01/09/2016 09:36:49 sm: no
01/09/2016 09:36:50 Mark Glezer: no
01/09/2016 09:36:50 MK: nein
01/09/2016 09:36:53 steve: no
01/09/2016 09:49:00 MK: rod cash actually probed the v bottom
01/09/2016 09:49:10 MK: in august
01/09/2016 09:49:37 MK: harumph
01/09/2016 09:49:41 MK: on my chart
01/09/2016 09:49:44 MK: i have it
01/09/2016 09:49:45 MK: weird
01/09/2016 09:51:19 MK: now i have to figure out why i hae a 1814.40 low for Aug
01/09/2016 09:55:37 sm: ;)
01/09/2016 09:57:17 sm: so are we looking for a 17 handle?
01/09/2016 09:59:00 tom: so if iy gaps up on Monday where would you expect that to go?
01/09/2016 10:00:29 ljr: stocks: NFLX, FXI,
01/09/2016 10:01:01 steve: could a large gap up seal a low or only be temporary?
01/09/2016 10:01:21 Mark Glezer: gap down likelihood is higher because of the character of the close?
01/09/2016 10:02:02 David B: is it to early for tracking your crash template?
01/09/2016 10:02:13 Mark Glezer: still expecting an intraday drop of 100 pts ?
01/09/2016 10:02:20 tom: if it doesn’t gap up to at least 42-45 then it should retrace is that correct?
01/09/2016 10:03:09 Mark Glezer: are counting down 10-11 sessions from the beginning of the decline?
01/09/2016 10:03:44 steve: market internals are really stretched here, normally leading to a bounce. So if it doesnt bounce, the rubber-band breaks down hard?
01/09/2016 10:06:27 Bill G: The “87 crash low stopped at the 200 wk m.a. which today is 1778 spx.
01/09/2016 10:07:14 Mark Glezer: can a gap down on Mon under 1880 create too much selling that cannot sustain & reverses back up or it’d be too low to invert?
01/09/2016 10:11:16 David B: what happens with the wed ex with mon no trading. is tues morning take its place?
01/09/2016 10:13:35 Bill G: Option exp is 1/15
01/09/2016 10:16:28 Bill G: y
01/09/2016 10:16:41 Bill G: low intraday
01/09/2016 10:18:55 Bill G: I’m just thinking algo programming. I get your point
01/09/2016 10:21:48 tom: AMZN,PZZA
01/09/2016 10:23:30 MK: CW
01/09/2016 10:23:33 MK: SE
01/09/2016 10:23:42 MK: PICO
01/09/2016 10:23:46 MK: HAL
01/09/2016 10:23:46 MK: LLL
01/09/2016 10:23:57 MK: NXPI
01/09/2016 10:23:59 MK: ABTL
01/09/2016 10:24:01 MK: SIG
01/09/2016 10:24:46 David B: GPRO,TWTR are these still jan candidates?
01/09/2016 10:28:32 tom: i am short PZZA
01/09/2016 10:30:16 tom: ok thx
01/09/2016 10:30:56 MK: LONG
01/09/2016 10:33:00 MK: yeah
01/09/2016 10:33:07 MK: i like it if/ market rallies
01/09/2016 10:33:09 MK: will ad a lot
01/09/2016 10:33:14 MK: and chart doesn’t break
01/09/2016 10:36:07 David B: that gapup and negative closed was that bearish?
01/09/2016 10:36:14 David B: gap up
01/09/2016 10:36:22 David B: expanding volume
01/09/2016 10:37:17 David B: FEYE is this still a jan candidate?
01/09/2016 10:37:46 David B: i’m referring to the gap up on GPRO
01/09/2016 10:39:03 MK: activist investor stakes
01/09/2016 10:39:39 MK: thats ugly
01/09/2016 10:39:43 MK: nevermind
01/09/2016 10:42:58 Mark Glezer: AAPL
01/09/2016 10:43:09 David B: yes
01/09/2016 10:43:42 Mark Glezer: headline on CNN says 65 is next
01/09/2016 10:43:57 MK: SNH january effect?
01/09/2016 10:46:12 MK: i wussed out and covered a bunch
01/09/2016 10:48:35 MK: LL is lumber liquidators
01/09/2016 10:49:00 MK: ok
01/09/2016 10:49:02 MK: no worreis
01/09/2016 10:49:04 MK: small postion
01/09/2016 10:50:08 Mark Glezer: :)
01/09/2016 10:53:10 Mark Glezer: hahah
01/09/2016 10:54:21 MK: yes
01/09/2016 10:55:17 MK: what pullback
01/09/2016 10:55:59 MK: Also I would like to monitor EQIX going forward
01/09/2016 10:56:06 MK: my proxy tech bubble short
01/09/2016 10:56:28 MK: no position yet
01/09/2016 10:56:31 MK: but stalking
01/09/2016 10:57:02 MK: ABTL i coverd 60% of my position
01/09/2016 10:57:27 MK: bounce back to 21?
01/09/2016 10:58:24 MK: ok
01/09/2016 10:59:47 MK: its tech “REAL ESTATE”
01/09/2016 10:59:48 sm: BKX
01/09/2016 10:59:52 MK: so its massively lagging
01/09/2016 11:00:06 MK: they sell space for servers
01/09/2016 11:00:35 MK: gotta bounce
01/09/2016 11:00:37 MK: have a good weekend
01/09/2016 11:01:37 Mark Glezer: thx much
01/09/2016 11:01:39 Bill G: Have a good one
01/09/2016 11:01:47 sm: thx
01/09/2016 11:01:57 Josey: Thank you, Rod!

The Saturday Review focused on  the WedEX signal that inverted to bearish. Its consequences for Monday have great consequences for the week, as holiday seasonality nears.

 MP4 version 
UserID: OmniJoin  ||  Password: F12151

I added several January Effect candidates into the stock requests, which were reviewed in this order:
AAPL, LNKD, GS, GPRO, TWTR, FEYE, IMAX, GOOGLE, TSO, VLO

Steve Marriott : 12/19/2015 9:29:47 AM
good
iPhone (2) : 12/19/2015 9:30:08 AM
Gm
Thomas : 12/19/2015 9:33:33 AM
are you speaking if so I have no sound
glezer : 12/19/2015 9:33:41 AM
gm
glezer : 12/19/2015 9:33:54 AM
very clear
ROD DAVID : 12/19/2015 9:33:55 AM
yes speaking
Steve Marriott : 12/19/2015 9:33:58 AM
audio is stil good
ROD DAVID : 12/19/2015 9:34:16 AM
Tom, do you want to retry logging in, or use the backup link?
Thomas : 12/19/2015 9:34:25 AM
ok I got it
glezer : 12/19/2015 9:38:17 AM
still clicking
glezer : 12/19/2015 9:50:04 AM
since this is a tipping point it might be still defended before breaking down or is it too late for that?
Thomas : 12/19/2015 9:53:43 AM
does it have to break on a closing basis
Thomas : 12/19/2015 9:58:34 AM
if it breaks intraday then comes back into the channel is it likely to goto new dowmtrending resistance or revert back down
admin : 12/19/2015 10:00:20 AM
when the wed ex inverted does this mean big money had changed their mind?
Steve Marriott : 12/19/2015 10:04:19 AM
Please repeat what are you saying about 1949
admin : 12/19/2015 10:07:24 AM
we’ve talked aboout money managers chasing perfomance is it possible hedge fund liquidation could also be a big influence into the end of the year?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:07:54 AM
meaning they have received customer requests for redemptions
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:08:20 AM
big money influence into the holidays should be obvious by Tue morning?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:10:01 AM
does option strike price breaks for like the spx has been talked about cause more elling that we may of seen he last two days?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:10:11 AM
selling
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:10:48 AM
meaning if a big move happens it should be done by Tue morning?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:12:25 AM
they said when spx broke like 2016
admin : 12/19/2015 10:12:30 AM
yes
admin : 12/19/2015 10:13:10 AM
meant 2016 futures
admin : 12/19/2015 10:13:13 AM
ok
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:19:17 AM
indexes?
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:19:21 AM
lnkd,gs
Steve Marriott : 12/19/2015 10:19:45 AM
better now
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:19:47 AM
yes
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:20:02 AM
I am fine
admin : 12/19/2015 10:20:12 AM
good
admin : 12/19/2015 10:23:44 AM
just going back to my question on the option stock price which i want to correct from 2016 futures to 2015 futures spx 2025, does this mean people at that strike have to sell and this brings more downside pressure that other technical levels are not revelant to trade?
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:27:56 AM
big call options just bought on GPRO
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:28:49 AM
imax,googl
admin : 12/19/2015 10:29:22 AM
TSO,VLO
admin : 12/19/2015 10:35:13 AM
some of the the commodity stocks would not be jan candidates?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:44:13 AM
could you answer my other question about option strike price
admin : 12/19/2015 10:46:53 AM
what about some of the dow stocks?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:48:35 AM
thanks
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:49:58 AM
clicking is somewhat annoying but not a deal killer for the platform
Steve Marriott : 12/19/2015 10:50:27 AM
no, it’s when you’re speaking
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:50:30 AM
no – when u talk it appears
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:52:10 AM
looking at transports vs spx quite a divergence.
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:52:40 AM
NQ is outperforming somewhat?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:52:47 AM
what about the russell?
admin : 12/19/2015 10:53:04 AM
does it play any relevance?
glezer : 12/19/2015 10:53:17 AM
thx much
Thomas : 12/19/2015 10:53:49 AM
thanks
admin : 12/19/2015 10:54:21 AM
thanks
Steve Marriott : 12/19/2015 10:54:36 AM
thx

This fast-changing market enviroinment has gone quickly from attacking prior highs to closing under prior lows. That can be motivated by the uptrend trying to discount its opposition, expending selling pressure so the next upleg is made easier to accomplish. Alternatively, that quick reversal can be a recognition of fundamentals devolving sooner or at a faster pace than was previously reasoned. Neither resolution is quite yet set in stone, but next leg is dangling over the precipice. This weekend’s Saturday Review discussed how the market got here, and how it gets out.

 MP4 version 

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
BLK, FB, ADBE, ORCL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, CLVS, OGZPY, DPZ, ROST, EQIX, VC, SUBX

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