Saturday Review

The pre-Thanksgiving correction had ended, but the pre-correction rally had barely resumed. Wednesday’s California incident exploited the vulnerability of a simple correction, and exacerbated its reaction down. ECB and Draghi combined Thursday to deliver a one-two knockout punch provided a one-two punch. But the market was only playing rope-a-dope, and Friday came out swinging through almost every round.

This week’s Saturday Review discusses whether new highs are back in-play, and where a correction should end if another were to appear. No actual boxing was discussed.

 MP4 version   ||   ilinc version

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
SBUX, NFLX, C, RGLD, OUTR, ABTL, DG (& DLTR), PII

12/05/2015 09:24:47 David B: good morning
12/05/2015 09:24:55 Charles Daniel: hi0
12/05/2015 09:31:48 Mark Glezer: gm
12/05/2015 09:38:47 MK: the terrorists didn’t do it….. the guns did it
12/05/2015 09:44:31 MK: also SPX 200dma was hit
12/05/2015 09:44:35 MK: right as we turned
12/05/2015 09:47:17 MKK: rod why go back to this range
12/05/2015 09:47:26 MKK: if not to probe the ghights
12/05/2015 09:47:27 MKK: highs
12/05/2015 09:52:24 SM: So then, a close below 2060 confirms that yesterday was nothing more than a correction of what may ultimately manifest as a nascent downleg of much larger size?
12/05/2015 09:53:37 MKK: aside from august, stopping and reversing on a dimes don’t repeat and reverse the following days
12/05/2015 09:53:56 MKK: especially when they involve 2-3% moves
12/05/2015 09:54:25 MKK: IMO playing a big decline is a infentessimal probability
12/05/2015 09:54:41 MKK: especially with a week left before volume vanishes
12/05/2015 09:54:55 MKK: Flat to higher is IMO the 95% play
12/05/2015 09:55:30 MKK: bad spelling
12/05/2015 09:56:11 MKK: just feel like everyone is still looking for a big delicne
12/05/2015 09:56:15 MKK: decline
12/05/2015 09:56:19 MKK: so its not going to happen
12/05/2015 09:58:05 Mark Glezer: mayba a big decline now needs to be triggered by bad news that does persist for a few days & that is not very likely
12/05/2015 09:59:50 SM: My contraran indicators are kicking in. The ‘opinions’ always get stronger at major turning points.
12/05/2015 10:00:57 MKK: SBUX
12/05/2015 10:00:59 MKK: you rock
12/05/2015 10:01:03 MKK: i covered on thursday
12/05/2015 10:01:06 MKK: about 60%
12/05/2015 10:01:34 David B: NFLX,C
12/05/2015 10:02:42 MKK: RGLD
12/05/2015 10:02:48 MKK: OUTR
12/05/2015 10:02:56 MKK: ABTL
12/05/2015 10:03:17 MKK: DG
12/05/2015 10:03:46 MKK: at 59.50
12/05/2015 10:03:53 MKK: where i covered
12/05/2015 10:04:35 MKK: back under 60?
12/05/2015 10:04:41 MKK: i’m not going to add on strength
12/05/2015 10:04:47 MKK: i’ll add on weakness
12/05/2015 10:07:00 MKK: this stock is mind blowing
12/05/2015 10:07:04 MKK: exactly
12/05/2015 10:11:59 MKK: correlations are all 1
12/05/2015 10:12:02 MKK: haha
12/05/2015 10:13:44 David B: some of the commodity stocks that are down big this year will you be disccussing some january effect candidates?
12/05/2015 10:16:42 MKK: nothing new
12/05/2015 10:16:43 MKK: sorry
12/05/2015 10:16:46 MKK: carry on
12/05/2015 10:17:15 MKK: imo seems optimistic
12/05/2015 10:17:24 MKK: yea
12/05/2015 10:17:27 MKK: my thoughts too
12/05/2015 10:17:35 MKK: ok
12/05/2015 10:18:33 David B: its seems if the fed was going to raise rates you would think the bond market would be declining yet it rallied yesterday with stocks. does the market still believe the fed will not raise rates as agressively?
12/05/2015 10:18:49 MKK: PII
12/05/2015 10:19:28 David B: and gold rallied also
12/05/2015 10:23:09 MKK: getting nervous about this reaction from the high
12/05/2015 10:28:07 MKK: yes
12/05/2015 10:28:08 MKK: we did
12/05/2015 10:28:12 MKK: at 62.50
12/05/2015 10:28:22 MKK: yup
12/05/2015 10:28:32 MKK: sigh… i covered at 65.50
12/05/2015 10:28:35 MKK: sorry
12/05/2015 10:28:35 MKK: sold
12/05/2015 10:28:37 MKK: at 65.50
12/05/2015 10:28:42 MKK: before earnings
12/05/2015 10:28:50 MKK: eanrnings were 2 daysa go
12/05/2015 10:28:50 MKK: yes
12/05/2015 10:29:05 MKK: yes thurs preopen
12/05/2015 10:30:25 MKK: gotcha
12/05/2015 10:31:02 Mark Glezer: ABTL – what would be your sell trigger & a target?
12/05/2015 10:31:25 MKK: yes it is
12/05/2015 10:31:27 MKK: its fdo
12/05/2015 10:31:31 MKK: yes
12/05/2015 10:31:32 Mark Glezer: yes
12/05/2015 10:31:47 MKK: oh wait
12/05/2015 10:31:52 MKK: didn’t hey get taken private?
12/05/2015 10:32:16 MKK: they are now DLTR
12/05/2015 10:33:56 MKK: i love that
12/05/2015 10:33:58 Mark Glezer: thx much
12/05/2015 10:34:02 MKK: i dropped shorting PII
12/05/2015 10:34:14 MKK: early last year
12/05/2015 10:34:29 MKK: grrr
12/05/2015 10:34:41 MKK: shorted from 80-90
12/05/2015 10:34:47 MKK: 110-120
12/05/2015 10:34:57 MKK: 135-150
12/05/2015 10:35:01 MKK: and then gave up
12/05/2015 10:35:03 MKK: and now
12/05/2015 10:35:06 MKK: it turns
12/05/2015 10:35:29 MKK: lots of money lost
12/05/2015 10:36:12 MKK: lower targets
12/05/2015 10:36:19 MKK: ok
12/05/2015 10:36:19 MKK: thanks
12/05/2015 10:36:35 MKK: i’ll sell some jan 80 puts
12/05/2015 10:38:00 MKK: had connectivity issues yesterday
12/05/2015 10:38:06 David B: thanks
12/05/2015 10:38:25 MKK: yeah
12/05/2015 10:38:27 MKK: probably me
12/05/2015 10:38:35 MKK: well
12/05/2015 10:38:40 MKK: have a good weekend

A decline already underway could have ended less dramatically than last Sunday’s capitulation low, which was triggered by the weekend’s horrific events in Paris. But it did end there, and it was retraced entirely at Thursday and Friday’s highs. Can it continue higher without another correction down? How deep would a correction be? What must happen to know a correction is being avoided? These were among the questions addressed during this weekend’s Saturday Review.

 MP4 version   ||   ilinc version

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AAPL, TSLA, SIG, LOW, AMZN, ZOES, CSCO, CNX, NFLX, RGLD, SLW, CMG, GLW

11/21/2015 09:32:47 David B: good morning
11/21/2015 09:32:54 David B: yes
11/21/2015 09:32:55 SM: good
11/21/2015 09:33:01 steve: good
11/21/2015 09:33:15 David B: yes
11/21/2015 09:33:15 SM: yes
11/21/2015 09:33:16 steve: gm
11/21/2015 09:34:07 Mark Glezer: gm
11/21/2015 09:38:27 ljr: Gm. stocks: CSX, YELP. will watch recording later thx.
11/21/2015 09:54:18 MK: low liquidity and above 200dma means algos drift higher
11/21/2015 09:56:12 MK: i’ll wager a LOT that we test 2110 next week
11/21/2015 10:00:43 MK: yup
11/21/2015 10:00:45 MK: disonnected
11/21/2015 10:00:47 SM: audio now
11/21/2015 10:00:47 David Bennin: yes
11/21/2015 10:00:53 SM: charts now
11/21/2015 10:03:57 MK: london tube bombing did this exactly
11/21/2015 10:04:49 SM: Does it take a close below the 2042 low in order to neutralize the present likelihood of new highs?
11/21/2015 10:06:35 william: sound ok but chart frozen ?
11/21/2015 10:06:51 Mark Glezer: FROZEN
11/21/2015 10:07:09 Mark Glezer: :)
11/21/2015 10:07:10 william: lol
11/21/2015 10:08:43 Bill G: can not see your cursor
11/21/2015 10:08:52 SM: n
11/21/2015 10:08:53 Mark Glezer: no
11/21/2015 10:08:54 william: reboot
11/21/2015 10:08:54 Bill G: no
11/21/2015 10:08:58 william: I had to reboot
11/21/2015 10:08:59 MK: we can’t seet he cursor
11/21/2015 10:09:00 MK: but
11/21/2015 10:09:07 MK: you can see what you are doing
11/21/2015 10:09:10 MK: its weird
11/21/2015 10:09:43 Mark Glezer: yes
11/21/2015 10:09:45 william: y
11/21/2015 10:09:47 SM: good
11/21/2015 10:09:47 MK: GTG
11/21/2015 10:11:32 David B: in the one of the blogs you mentioned that we only had closed below one prior high but the next one would be bearish. what was that other prior high that this would not be just a correction?
11/21/2015 10:11:38 Mark Glezer: if Mon is a big down day do u think it’d be some carryover to Tue or not necessarily depending on Mon close?
11/21/2015 10:12:29 David Bennin: after 2055?
11/21/2015 10:12:44 David Bennin: we close yes
11/21/2015 10:12:56 David Bennin: when we close at at 2018?
11/21/2015 10:13:11 David Bennin: ok i’ll come back
11/21/2015 10:14:36 David Bennin: when we closed at 2018 this was still a correction in an uptrend. what level if we continued down would it no longer be a coRrect
11/21/2015 10:14:49 David B: correction
11/21/2015 10:19:24 David B: ok
11/21/2015 10:19:56 David B: ye
11/21/2015 10:19:58 David B: yes
11/21/2015 10:20:09 MK: wow we never filled that gap?
11/21/2015 10:20:18 MK: or was that gap filled at 2012
11/21/2015 10:22:04 MK: yes
11/21/2015 10:22:25 MK: oh ok
11/21/2015 10:22:29 MK: close enough
11/21/2015 10:23:02 Bill G: Off topic. Do you have any comment on NYSE not taking stop orders or GTC beginning in Feb?
11/21/2015 10:23:22 MK: Bill thats kind of a moot point
11/21/2015 10:23:24 MK: yes
11/21/2015 10:23:25 MK: 100%
11/21/2015 10:23:30 MK: almost all brokers
11/21/2015 10:23:36 MK: have systems in place already
11/21/2015 10:23:48 MK: that store it
11/21/2015 10:23:50 MK: however
11/21/2015 10:23:58 MK: it 10000000% benefits the HFT
11/21/2015 10:24:51 MK: IMO
11/21/2015 10:24:54 MK: all that will result
11/21/2015 10:24:58 MK: is more poaching of orderd
11/21/2015 10:25:02 MK: and stop runs
11/21/2015 10:25:08 Bill G: It’s curing a symtom rather than the largest customer hft
11/21/2015 10:25:26 MK: No its outwardly benefitting the HFT
11/21/2015 10:25:47 william: AAPL, TSLA, CSCO
11/21/2015 10:25:52 MK: SIG
11/21/2015 10:26:59 David B: LOW,AMZN
11/21/2015 10:27:49 Bill G: Thats my point mk. Helpint nyse’s largest customer the algoes/hft with the excuse it’s helping the retail customer
11/21/2015 10:28:16 MK: ZOES
11/21/2015 10:30:19 MK: CNX
11/21/2015 10:32:02 MK: i’m still short the “H&S”
11/21/2015 10:32:10 MK: at 149
11/21/2015 10:32:23 MK: yes
11/21/2015 10:32:41 MK: optimism?
11/21/2015 10:32:53 MK: target 120?
11/21/2015 10:32:55 MK: air poket
11/21/2015 10:32:58 MK: pocket
11/21/2015 10:33:02 MK: under 133
11/21/2015 10:33:28 MK: oui
11/21/2015 10:33:52 MK: 161.8 or 261.8 no?
11/21/2015 10:34:49 MK: 148
11/21/2015 10:34:50 MK: sweet
11/21/2015 10:35:08 MK: yeah… people are buying more diamons…..
11/21/2015 10:35:09 MK: diamonds
11/21/2015 10:35:12 MK: not
11/21/2015 10:35:21 MK: sweet
11/21/2015 10:35:33 MK: gonna double down
11/21/2015 10:36:01 MK: finally i bring an idea where you agree with me!
11/21/2015 10:36:25 MK: ok
11/21/2015 10:36:27 MK: good to know
11/21/2015 10:36:48 MK: with HD breaking out… i think LOW is on its way
11/21/2015 10:37:09 MK: Nifty 50 all over agin
11/21/2015 10:37:10 David B: earnings announced
11/21/2015 10:37:11 MK: again
11/21/2015 10:37:22 MK: chasing big cap into the close of the year
11/21/2015 10:37:22 David B: just reported
11/21/2015 10:38:56 MK: oh man NFLX i forgot
11/21/2015 10:40:38 MK: wow… you see RGLD and SLW price action… These guy have been massive leaders… to see them break makes me super bearish on gold to close out the year
11/21/2015 10:41:05 MK: sorry just RGLD
11/21/2015 10:41:10 MK: SLW still a leader
11/21/2015 10:41:19 MK: yeah
11/21/2015 10:41:22 MK: I like ZOES
11/21/2015 10:41:27 MK: even though i hate fast casual
11/21/2015 10:42:15 MK: also CMG… just because of the news
11/21/2015 10:42:23 MK: wow
11/21/2015 10:42:30 MK: well thats going in the screener
11/21/2015 10:44:36 MK: GLW
11/21/2015 10:45:50 william: Tks
11/21/2015 10:47:02 MK: just wondering
11/21/2015 10:47:05 MK: my buy is above 10
11/21/2015 10:47:12 MK: just validate
11/21/2015 10:47:24 MK: that reecks of continuation
11/21/2015 10:47:28 MK: reeks
11/21/2015 10:48:02 MK: ok
11/21/2015 10:48:04 MK: thats fine
11/21/2015 10:48:11 MK: no need to do more work on such an ugly chart
11/21/2015 10:48:35 MK: i’m a buyer at 8 if we probe new lows and bounce on volume
11/21/2015 10:48:46 MK: i still think
11/21/2015 10:49:13 MK: in the beginning
11/21/2015 10:49:23 MK: LJR said CSX and YELP
11/21/2015 10:49:40 MK: you missed CSX and YELP from the start of the show
11/21/2015 10:49:53 MK: no
11/21/2015 10:49:57 MK: you did CNX
11/21/2015 10:50:16 MK: super bullish no on NFLX?
11/21/2015 10:50:30 MK: no reason to get back into the triangle
11/21/2015 10:50:35 MK: to not probe highs
11/21/2015 10:50:55 MK: waoh
11/21/2015 10:51:02 MK: that means 170?
11/21/2015 10:52:47 MK: both
11/21/2015 10:54:27 MK: ok
11/21/2015 10:54:35 MK: The value guy in me
11/21/2015 10:54:38 MK: is screaming buy here
11/21/2015 10:55:18 MK: fractal?
11/21/2015 10:55:29 MK: head is a fractal of the larger pattern
11/21/2015 10:55:43 MK: yes
11/21/2015 10:55:52 MK: too complex
11/21/2015 10:55:53 MK: nevermind
11/21/2015 10:55:59 MK: ok
11/21/2015 10:56:29 MK: yeah i can’t get bullish metals yet
11/21/2015 10:56:40 MK: everything screams more work
11/21/2015 10:56:50 MK: and i think sub 1000 is coming on gold
11/21/2015 10:56:55 MK: and an 11 handle in silver
11/21/2015 10:58:17 MK: i’m just curious about selling puts against it
11/21/2015 10:58:20 MK: so i’m on ly concerneda
11/21/2015 10:58:22 MK: bout extremes
11/21/2015 10:58:42 MK: and people hospitalized
11/21/2015 10:58:52 MK: i guess my question
11/21/2015 10:58:58 MK: is how much support is in the 490 range
11/21/2015 10:59:06 MK: thats where i was looking to sell juice
11/21/2015 10:59:11 MK: correct
11/21/2015 10:59:28 MK: yup
11/21/2015 10:59:30 MK: 495/490
11/21/2015 10:59:33 MK: oh wow
11/21/2015 10:59:34 MK: ok
11/21/2015 10:59:38 MK: alrgiht then
11/21/2015 11:00:12 MK: ok
11/21/2015 11:00:14 MK: i hate that
11/21/2015 11:00:16 MK: i won’t trade it
11/21/2015 11:00:54 MK: so
11/21/2015 11:01:00 MK: long at mondays open?
11/21/2015 11:01:17 MK: ok
11/21/2015 11:02:04 MK: so wait for retrace
11/21/2015 11:02:10 MK: gotcgha
11/21/2015 11:02:12 MK: thanks
11/21/2015 11:02:15 MK: that was great
11/21/2015 11:02:33 David B: thanks
11/21/2015 11:02:35 Bill G: Have a good on
11/21/2015 11:02:49 william: Great, Tks,
11/21/2015 11:02:49 MK: have a good one
11/21/2015 11:02:58 SM: thx
11/21/2015 11:03:20 Mark Glezer: enjoy your weekend