Saturday Review
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/15/15) … Restrained optimism.
The week began with a bang, followed by a couple more, but its wide range and wild ride ended with a whimper. Or so it might have seemed. Beneath the surface there was reason to expect volatility to resume, and without much delay if any. Details were discussed during the Saturday Review, recorded here:
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/8/15) … Getting real.
The week”s ultimate decline tested the pullback limit that would keep alive a path to new highs. Oh, and then that pullback limit broke. It didn”t break decisively, mostly because of its timing. During this weekend”s Saturday Review, we discussed the specific price action that would invalidate Friday”s break or confirm it, and the consequences to either. We also reviewed individual stock chart analysis requests, listed above the chat”s transcript.
AAPL, SUNE, CNX, PAAS, SAND, NGD, TNET, TREE, BOFI, SC
08/08/2015 09:35:03 MK: gm
08/08/2015 09:36:08 Bill G: good
08/08/2015 09:36:10 charlie: hi0
08/08/2015 09:36:43 Mark Glezer: gm
08/08/2015 09:41:29 MK: that looks awfully familiar
08/08/2015 09:42:48 MK: yes
08/08/2015 09:43:40 MK: i meant yesterdays action
08/08/2015 09:43:58 MK: the 3rd”s vs the 8ths
08/08/2015 09:52:11 MK: there are a lot of people putting their necks out now saying any bounce from here should be faded
08/08/2015 09:53:28 Mark Glezer: if 2035 objective will be in play on Mon would u expect anyy particular behavior on the path there?
08/08/2015 09:55:36 Mark Glezer: meaning in can still take a few days or a week with interim bounces right?
08/08/2015 09:59:04 MK: interesting tidbit
08/08/2015 09:59:37 MK: Since 2000 when DJIA closes lower for 7 consecutive sessions (Win rate 80% avg REturn 4.5%)
08/08/2015 10:00:05 MK: Since 1970 (Win rate 42% average return -0.14%)
08/08/2015 10:00:55 MK: if long
08/08/2015 10:00:58 MK: on session 8
08/08/2015 10:01:15 MK: after 1 month
08/08/2015 10:01:27 MK: but if you include 1970
08/08/2015 10:01:31 MK: to now
08/08/2015 10:01:32 MK: so
08/08/2015 10:01:39 MK: its massively clustered
08/08/2015 10:01:57 MK: 1970 – 2000 that number is a 20% win rate
08/08/2015 10:02:08 MK: and a return of -3.7%
08/08/2015 10:02:31 MK: QE vs non QE
08/08/2015 10:02:45 MK: guy on twitter called Chad Gassaway
08/08/2015 10:06:45 Rod David: m r: Could the overlap action at 2084 and 2077 be an analog for what we may still see aroud 2099 – 2105…meaning, could we still see testing above 2099 – 2105 to the same degree that we”ve seen testing below that area?
08/08/2015 10:08:33 MK: can we do some einhorn positions?
08/08/2015 10:08:39 Rod David: m r: Haven”t we been anticipating seeing the Dow coparatively outperform as evidence of the long term uptrend finally being done (not JUST the new appearance of relative weakness in NDX)?
08/08/2015 10:09:15 MK: SUNE
08/08/2015 10:09:17 MK: CNX
08/08/2015 10:09:28 MK: I got long both of those yesterday
08/08/2015 10:09:31 MK: just for S&G
08/08/2015 10:10:38 Rod David: m r: I thought that the concept was big money that HAS to be in stocks, rotates from speculation into DOw
08/08/2015 10:14:19 MK: I still believe that RUT is a better indication of speculation than NDX
08/08/2015 10:20:56 Bill G: Schaeffer had a similar study on mkt after 7 consecutive losses with 1day,1wk,2wk,1 month performance. The avg 1day,1 wk was neg and 2wk,1month was positive. The problem was in all time frames less than half the cases had positive returns. The results were skewed by positve occurences had greater % gains than the% losses on the dn occurrences.
08/08/2015 10:22:24 Mark Glezer: we have been looking for new highs for awhile but every time area above 2100 is met with a very aggressive sell-off and now NDX is finally underperforming. Perhaps we have seen the high in ES?
08/08/2015 10:27:29 Bill G: Do these guys do a lot of coal?
08/08/2015 10:29:21 MK: can we do some miners?
08/08/2015 10:29:23 MK: PAAS
08/08/2015 10:29:49 MK: SAND
08/08/2015 10:31:44 MK: NGD
08/08/2015 10:32:04 MK: Also TNET
08/08/2015 10:35:12 MK: I feel like there”s a lot of optionality here in SAND
08/08/2015 10:35:25 MK: sigh
08/08/2015 10:35:35 MK: rod you are such a negative nancy
08/08/2015 10:37:16 MK: RE: Gold CEF is a gold/silver holding company in Canada. Its Discount to NAV is now at its highest point ever.
08/08/2015 10:37:30 MK: Which atually in the past
08/08/2015 10:37:39 MK: has worked well when it diverges with gold price action
08/08/2015 10:37:41 MK: at turning points
08/08/2015 10:38:02 MK: RE:NGD I ACCUMULATED here
08/08/2015 10:38:08 MK: if you want signs of accumulation
08/08/2015 10:39:42 MK: OH WOW
08/08/2015 10:39:58 MK: NO
08/08/2015 10:40:03 MK: that was just a musing
08/08/2015 10:40:09 MK: at 26
08/08/2015 10:40:15 MK: was when i last looked at it
08/08/2015 10:40:19 MK: nevermind
08/08/2015 10:40:37 MK: TNET isn”t gold
08/08/2015 10:40:48 MK: they do HR outsourcing for SF tech bubble
08/08/2015 10:42:48 MK: OH wait
08/08/2015 10:42:52 MK: is there time for 2 more stocks?
08/08/2015 10:43:06 MK: TREE and BOFI
08/08/2015 10:43:14 MK: I can”t wait to short those two
08/08/2015 10:43:55 MK: Lending tree is a middleman for mortgages
08/08/2015 10:44:10 MK: and BOFI does LIAR loans
08/08/2015 10:45:47 MK: hahah
08/08/2015 10:46:00 MK: neither chart is shortable
08/08/2015 10:46:07 MK: just wanted to get them on board with levels
08/08/2015 10:46:10 MK: so when i bring them up
08/08/2015 10:46:56 MK: complex ascending triangle in aprl/may
08/08/2015 10:48:12 MK: both stocks have 20% short interest
08/08/2015 10:48:40 MK: oh
08/08/2015 10:48:42 MK: also
08/08/2015 10:48:43 MK: SC
08/08/2015 10:48:44 MK: sorry
08/08/2015 10:48:50 MK: no
08/08/2015 10:48:52 MK: just the first 2
08/08/2015 10:48:58 MK: SC has been at the forefront
08/08/2015 10:49:03 MK: of Subprime lending
08/08/2015 10:49:05 MK: for autos
08/08/2015 10:49:10 MK: yeah
08/08/2015 10:49:12 MK: crushed it
08/08/2015 10:49:12 MK: thanks
08/08/2015 10:49:24 MK: got 3.25 points off that buy
08/08/2015 10:50:09 MK: now i want to short this
08/08/2015 10:50:12 MK: but dont” want to chase it
08/08/2015 10:50:17 MK: so bounce?
08/08/2015 10:50:29 MK: high 24”s
08/08/2015 10:50:36 MK: high 25s
08/08/2015 10:50:36 MK: ok
08/08/2015 10:52:05 Mark Glezer: thx much
08/08/2015 10:52:14 MK: thanks for fielding all the stocks
08/08/2015 10:52:21 Bill G: thanks
08/08/2015 10:52:22 charlie: tks
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/1/15) … The longest 3-letter word.
Is a top still forming? Is it finished forming? Is it not a top? This week”s Saturday Review examined more of the mass psychological evolution of the broad pattern we”ve been tracking for some time. Of course, we also discussed specific setups, including likely action Sunday night and Monday. We also reviewed charts for several high-profile and active stocks — such as AAPL, PCLN, SCTY TSLA — all with informative technical analysis and charting techniques.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/25/15) … Is it, or isn’t it?
Will last week”s drop hold the measurements of a pullback, or add another downleg? This are but two of two major questions we addressed during this weekend”s Saturday Review. That”s right. There really aren”t any other major questions at this stage. Enjoy!
Following is the review”s accompanying chat:
07/25/2015 09:31:37 Mark Glezer: good
07/25/2015 09:31:39 Bill G: good
07/25/2015 09:31:41 Mark Glezer: gm
07/25/2015 09:31:57 charlie: hi0
07/25/2015 09:32:38 David B: good morning
07/25/2015 09:51:48 David B: closing under 2099.25 on being a friday would would be talking about a different pattern say if it was a second consective close on a thursday?
07/25/2015 09:52:42 David B: what i”m saying is a second consective close less revelant on a friday?
07/25/2015 10:01:36 Mark Glezer: don”t lower prior highs normally produce a bounce of significance ?
07/25/2015 10:02:09 David B: yes
07/25/2015 10:03:13 David B: what close would tell us new highs are off the table?
07/25/2015 10:06:49 David B: is that considered trend change?
07/25/2015 10:09:49 Mark Glezer: a trend change would be big meaning it would be defended against?
07/25/2015 10:12:21 David B: BIIB,AMGN
07/25/2015 10:27:14 David B: DIS,QCOM
07/25/2015 10:42:07 Mark Glezer: thx much
07/25/2015 10:42:12 David B: thanks
07/25/2015 10:42:26 charlie: tks
Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/11/15) …Fallen and can’t get up.
This weekend”s Saturday Review described how to recognize a durable or false breakout from the recent two-week old range, and the consequences of either. Below is the chat transcript, and a chronological list of the stock requests we reviewed. The recording”s links are:
MP4 version || Non-mp4 version
AAPL, TSO, VLO, NVLX, GWPH, GOOGL, NKE, CSCO, Crude Oil (CL), Copper (HG)
07/11/2015 09:32:59 Mark : gm
07/11/2015 09:33:20 G: echo
07/11/2015 09:56:15 Mark Glezer: is the likeliest scenario now to probe
higher Mon to 2090-2095 and close under Fri high?
07/11/2015 10:00:41 Mark Glezer: first break out would likely be false
whatever direction or not necessarily?
07/11/2015 10:00:53 Mark Glezer: k
07/11/2015 10:01:03 David B: we have greece,china,and earnings going on.
how does one know which one the market is focusing on or does it matter
in the bigger picture?
07/11/2015 10:02:18 Mark Glezer: there is expectation that earnings will
likely be bad
07/11/2015 10:02:54 David B: so we”ll know with second second close what
the focus is?
07/11/2015 10:03:06 David B: to new highs
07/11/2015 10:05:15 Mark Glezer: do u expect a real break out of this
range – not a false one – to occur with a big move, perhaps doubling the
size of the range – 50*2 = 100 pts?
07/11/2015 10:05:26 David B: they were saying china having an impact on
aapl
07/11/2015 10:05:50 David B: could have an impact on aapl
07/11/2015 10:08:38 Mark Glezer: if not earnings or geo-political event,
what do u think will be a driving force to move to a new range in ES?
07/11/2015 10:13:07 Mark Glezer: yes
07/11/2015 10:13:19 Mark Glezer: right
07/11/2015 10:15:50 David B: TSO,VLO
07/11/2015 10:15:51 Mark Glezer: last Q – above
07/11/2015 10:15:55 David B: GOOGL
07/11/2015 10:17:39 David B: it seems like the nasdaq is underperforming
so if we got a second higher close would this mean we would need the
speculative stocks to lead this higher?
07/11/2015 10:22:07 David B: would you categorize the drop of china
differently than 87 in that is was more in line with your crash scenario
you have discussed before?
07/11/2015 10:24:09 Rod David: m r: Another question about the braoder
market – Since the pattern which preceded the current range was a Double
Failed Breakout of the Ascending Triangle, does that undermine the
ability for the market to return to and/or exceed those highs?
07/11/2015 10:24:43 David B: yes
07/11/2015 10:27:21 David B: also have a question above my china crash
question
07/11/2015 10:28:33 David B: nasdaw underperforming
07/11/2015 10:28:44 David B: yes
07/11/2015 10:30:10 Mark Glezer: AAPL is somewhat deceptive in that
sense since it is also a part of DOW now
07/11/2015 10:33:21 Mark Glezer: in a sense of reflecting NDX
underperformance
07/11/2015 10:42:02 Mark Glezer: my comment on AAPL pls
07/11/2015 10:43:57 Mark Glezer: right
07/11/2015 10:44:16 Mark Glezer: both NDX & DOW
07/11/2015 10:44:55 Mark Glezer: doesn”t indicate outperformance of one
& underperformance of the other
07/11/2015 10:45:09 Mark Glezer: AAPL that is
07/11/2015 10:57:00 Mark Glezer: my comment on AAPL was that since it is
now a part of both NDX & DOW it cannot be used to indicate outperformnce
of the one & underperformance of the other, it can only be reflection of
the move when NDX & DOW move in the same direction
07/11/2015 10:58:00 Mark Glezer: agree
07/11/2015 10:58:30 Mark Glezer: k
07/11/2015 10:58:49 Mark Glezer: thx much
07/11/2015 10:59:26 David B: thanks