Saturday Review
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’re in the middle of a WedEX signal, and we’ll discuss what it is, and what it is not. The week’s FOMC surge has reversed down sharply, either on the way to new lows, or else a warning shot across the bow. We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 9/12/15) … Stability is not strength.
Another week gone by without resuming the decline. Intraday swings are narrowing, albeit still well beyond the norm. Price still hovering at the upper-end of the crash’s reaction. So, the bear market is done? Probably not, and there are two paths to resuming it. Meanwhile, this week offers several catalysts to keep volatility alive. Details were discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review, linked below.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
BABA, GMCR, YHOO, NFLX, AMZN, AAPL, BT, CSCO, GLUU, MU
09/12/2015 09:31:47 David B: good morning
09/12/2015 09:32:00 Charlie: !Ola!
09/12/2015 09:32:26 Mark Glezer: gm
09/12/2015 09:45:25 Mark Glezer: is 1695 projected regardless of a potential break higher first?
09/12/2015 09:49:52 ljr: any clues for fed this week?
09/12/2015 09:53:19 ljr: and opex this week (prob too early to tell)…I will listen to recording
09/12/2015 09:55:33 David B: this is a strange week for the wed ex. jewish holidays mon and tues and fed decison on thursday. how do you think big money is positioned and would there be a higher probability of an inverted wed ex say on friday?
09/12/2015 09:55:36 MK: so basically chart is broken, but a lot of participents don’t know it yet
09/12/2015 09:55:56 MK: participants
09/12/2015 09:56:06 MK: pardon my spelling its early
09/12/2015 10:02:29 MK: yes
09/12/2015 10:02:30 MK: yes
09/12/2015 10:02:45 Mark Glezer: what gap would u like to fill?
09/12/2015 10:03:16 Bill G: Do you think we may be close to a change in mkt leadership? P erhaps energy, oil , commodities?
09/12/2015 10:03:52 David B: just curios what level would indicate a trend change to the upside?
09/12/2015 10:06:12 Mark Glezer: headlines scream $20
09/12/2015 10:09:39 Mark Glezer: BABA – agree with 50% drop suggested by Barron’s?
09/12/2015 10:13:03 David B: GMCR,YHOO
09/12/2015 10:16:01 Mark Glezer: yeah
09/12/2015 10:30:28 David B: NFLX,AMZN
09/12/2015 10:32:34 Josey: GLUU, MU
09/12/2015 10:32:50 Mark Glezer: can u actually ignore the spike with a flag?
09/12/2015 10:42:38 Rod David: m r: Following your comments on the inter-market comparison: Does that make NDX more vulnerable to even greater downside (as compared to the general market)?
09/12/2015 10:43:10 Mark Glezer: NFLX maybe
09/12/2015 10:43:25 Mark Glezer: no
09/12/2015 10:43:37 Mark Glezer: yeah
09/12/2015 10:43:39 Mark Glezer: k
09/12/2015 10:43:54 Mark Glezer: thx much
09/12/2015 10:44:13 David B: thanks
09/12/2015 10:45:02 Josey: TY
Login links to Saturday Review
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
For all of its gyrations, last week’s range developed entirely within the prior week’s range. So, what information could it provide? Plenty, plus that only puts the market closer to resolving its range. We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/29/15) … Bounces vs. bottoms.
This weekend”s Saturday Review described the recent plunge and its current bottoming attempt, elaborating on why it”s only a bottoming attempt and not a durable bottom. The likeliest paths Sunday night and Monday morning were described, with ideas for playing them. The discussion included a perspective on rationalizing / justifying a trade, and the necessity of abandoning a trade…
The following stocks were discussed, including a brief discussion of the difference between price momentum (as expressed by MACD) and buying/selling strength (which is depicted by RSI). The chat transcript follows:
SVXY, FCX, S, OGZPY, PAAS, SIG, SNH, NGD, DPZ, TPX, PII, INTC, BOFI
08/29/2015 09:31:56 David B: good morning
08/29/2015 09:32:13 joep: gm
08/29/2015 09:32:18 Charles Daniel: hi0
08/29/2015 09:32:24 Mark Glezer: gm
08/29/2015 09:46:07 Mark Glezer: would u expect a move down to happen in
a single intraday leg?
08/29/2015 10:11:14 lloyd: any timing for testing low or breaking it?
I”m just checking I”m to ask question. If already answered ignore. i wi
08/29/2015 10:12:12 lloyd: I will listen to recording. have to go Thx
08/29/2015 10:19:21 Miss Kitty: What are some lower targets along the
way?
08/29/2015 10:27:55 steve: can you look at SVXY?
08/29/2015 10:31:39 David B: FCX,S
08/29/2015 10:34:31 MK: OGZPY
08/29/2015 10:35:15 MK: PAAS
08/29/2015 10:35:50 MK: SIG (Short)
08/29/2015 10:36:07 MK: SNH
08/29/2015 10:36:22 MK: NGD
08/29/2015 10:36:38 MK: DPZ (Short)
08/29/2015 10:37:44 MK: TPX (short)
08/29/2015 10:38:16 MK: PII (SHORT)
08/29/2015 10:38:34 MK: INTC (SHORT)
08/29/2015 10:39:03 MK: BOFI (SHORT)
08/29/2015 10:39:19 MK: sorry but i have to take care of something so
i”ll watch the stocks on the recording
08/29/2015 10:55:10 MK: ok
08/29/2015 10:55:12 MK: thats fine
08/29/2015 11:06:07 Josey: Thank you Rod! part of todays discussion was
me. I am always learning from your teaching
08/29/2015 11:06:16 joep: same to you
08/29/2015 11:07:03 Charles Daniel: tks!
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/22/15) … Trending.
Two consecutive lower closes under a multi-session range — breakout, and confirmation. That”s the minimum definition of trending, because the setup now requires an eventual third lower close. It could be thirty lower closes, but it need not be consecutive.
The substantiality of the two-day breakout, more than its velocity, suggests that it will lead to more than just a third lower close. And its velocity, more than its substantiality, suggests that third lower close will Monday.
Regardless, it”s a big change from the multi-month trading range being left behind. Not so much a new reality, as the en masse recognition of a reality. It”s a reality which we”ve been discussing during our during our weekly Saturday Reviews for almost a half-year.
Some of the observations were redundant, but now there are more points to make — about 530 of them Friday, alone, and 1100 points from last week”s high. With the welcome help of a lot of great questions and observations from subscribers, we spent 90 minutes on Saturday discussing what was expected and what”s next as the market enters a new phase.
These stocks were discussed, in this order: AMZN GOOGL TSLA NFLX FB DPZ REGN MU PANW DIS GMCR TWTR JCP
08/22/2015 09:33:27 Charles Daniel: hi0
08/22/2015 09:33:51 Mark Glezer: gm
08/22/2015 09:38:39 Miss Kitty: Does WedEx happen every Wednesday?
08/22/2015 09:39:18 Chicken Little: MK expiration falls once a month on
the 3rd friday of the month
08/22/2015 09:39:38 Miss Kitty: Ok. Thanks, Chicken. ;-)
08/22/2015 09:39:42 Chicken Little: thw wedex signal occurrs only on the
wednesday preceeding the expiration
08/22/2015 09:44:23 Chicken Little: the AM & noon hour declining channel
made another fractal IMO in the PM… don”t have much as to what it
implies, but i find it interesting
08/22/2015 09:45:24 David B: when you have a inverted wed ex does this
mean big money is behind it?
08/22/2015 09:47:24 Bill G: Gap up could be pivot rev
08/22/2015 09:48:39 David B: when we closed below 2035 on wed was the
next potentional support 1917?
08/22/2015 09:48:40 Rod David: m r: is it true that it CANT gap above a
relevant high becuase that would trigger a session long rally?
08/22/2015 09:49:11 Chicken Little: yes
08/22/2015 09:49:17 Chicken Little: you are drawing in the right place
08/22/2015 09:49:22 Chicken Little: yes
08/22/2015 09:49:38 Chicken Little: hahaha
08/22/2015 09:50:09 Mark Glezer: fractals seem very predictive
08/22/2015 09:52:29 David B: so its not a durable rally or decline?
08/22/2015 09:55:18 David B: durable rally or decline related to my
question wed ex inverted
08/22/2015 09:56:58 Mark Glezer: even if there is no gap up Mon and the
decline simply extends we cannot dismiss a potential of testing higher
prior lows around 2000 over the next few days?
08/22/2015 10:00:06 Bill G: Nothing scientific but found the low /high
on pivot rev days to have the intraday price extreme to occur around
12:30. That would fit quite well with the WedEx pattern. Of course a gap
up is I suspect a low probability
08/22/2015 10:00:15 David B: was 2035 the trend change?
08/22/2015 10:03:15 Mark Glezer: would u expect a move to the next
support under 1900 to happen within a day or two?
08/22/2015 10:06:22 Chicken Little: also lets not forget
08/22/2015 10:06:28 Chicken Little: we could be trading 1900 monday
08/22/2015 10:08:55 Mark Glezer: sure but a size of Mon move could be
comparable to Fri range?
08/22/2015 10:15:56 Mark Glezer: would u expect ES to continue its
inverse relationship with bonds?
08/22/2015 10:18:08 Mark Glezer: ES is not even 8% down
08/22/2015 10:19:54 joe parasconda: what are your thoughts on
capitulation and how it can effect a potential reversal
08/22/2015 10:20:17 Mark Glezer: headlines screeam “correction” meaning
the majority still thinks in terms of a bull market
08/22/2015 10:20:25 Chicken Little: the next one won”t be a flash
08/22/2015 10:21:25 David B: how does the russell play into this as far
as if it starts to outperform?
08/22/2015 10:23:12 David B: if we start to head toward that v bottom
would you expect the fed would try and step in before?
08/22/2015 10:24:04 Mark Glezer: was the reaction to Fed”s minutes the
actual trigger to the decline?
08/22/2015 10:24:38 Mark Glezer: since it never looked back after
printing 2094
08/22/2015 10:24:42 Bill G: Big money would not be dist in a 5% range to
turn around and buy with only a 10% drop
08/22/2015 10:26:26 Bill G: talk
08/22/2015 10:26:27 David B: QE
08/22/2015 10:28:28 David B: what number is that V bottom?
08/22/2015 10:29:43 Mark Glezer: I think they exhausted their resources.
Seems like a hint on a rate hike in Sep during the minutes could be
viewed bullishly as the economy is strong enough, Instead, the odds of a
hike went down to 38% & we went down
08/22/2015 10:30:14 Rod David: m r: Could you elaborate on your comments
about NDX being relatively outperforming and this recent decline
occurring even though there was still a credible possibility for a new
high?
08/22/2015 10:33:03 Mark Glezer: like in China – we all know where that
is going
08/22/2015 10:33:37 Mark Glezer: haha
08/22/2015 10:34:15 Chicken Little: nope
08/22/2015 10:34:19 Chicken Little: not catching any knives
08/22/2015 10:34:26 Mark Glezer: BABA – still looking for 63?
08/22/2015 10:34:38 Chicken Little: have a good weekend everyone see you
sunday night
08/22/2015 10:34:39 Mark Glezer: k
08/22/2015 10:35:15 David B: AMZN,NFLX
08/22/2015 10:39:01 David B: FB
08/22/2015 10:40:51 Chicken Little: DPZ
08/22/2015 10:42:08 David B: REGN
08/22/2015 10:44:27 David B: MU
08/22/2015 10:44:39 Chicken Little: PANW
08/22/2015 10:46:16 Rod David: m r: your comment about FB reminded me
that broader market is now obligated to a third lower close since it has
a confirmed break below the multi-session range.
08/22/2015 10:46:39 Chicken Little: yes
08/22/2015 10:46:42 Chicken Little: 170
08/22/2015 10:46:55 Chicken Little: i almost bought 150
08/22/2015 10:47:03 Chicken Little: but didn”t
08/22/2015 10:47:25 David B: DIS
08/22/2015 10:47:32 Chicken Little: that uptredning support line
08/22/2015 10:47:34 Chicken Little: kept going
08/22/2015 10:51:10 David B: GMCR
08/22/2015 10:54:17 David B: TWTR
08/22/2015 10:56:25 David B: JCP
08/22/2015 11:01:47 Mark Glezer: thx much
08/22/2015 11:02:03 David B: thanks
08/22/2015 11:02:04 Miss Kitty: Thanks!
08/22/2015 11:02:06 Charles Daniel: tks