Saturday Review

Last week began by probing new highs. Seems like a distant memory now, after the week included one of the most sizable recent declines, and one of the steepest.

Did Monday”s high qualify as the high? It could, barely. But that remains to be seen, as there is potential for its retest. We discussed that along with the bigger picture during this weekend”s Saturday Review.

Click here for its recording. The market discussion comprises the first 35 minutes, and then we discussed the following stocks and other charts in this order:

AAPL
CARA
NTRI
CLF
FNV
REGN
C
GS
JPM
XLF
FCX
DIS
BP
RIG
VIAB
TOT
HFC
WTW
GBLX
Gold
Crude Oil
Euro
WFM

A funny thing happened on the way to retesting prior highs… Greece makes “not-news” on Grexit, China makes real news with short-selling, and  Bloomberg terminals prevent even reading the news. Result? Traders scramble for the exits ahead of weekend illiquidity. Can the upside resume, how, and how to recognize it almost immediately, are just three questions answered in this weekend”s Saturday Review (linked below). Also, stock chart analysis requests! (OXIS, MU, STX, ADM, PCAR, LRCX, KR, DG, ALV, GOOGL, FB, NFLX)

NEW! The recording was made in MP4, with superior audio quality, and accessible by a variety of platforms:
http://www.anymeeting.com/nrodpywxnayx/E159DD82814B

Here”s the older format if you experience any difficulty:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/hthhbrm

This weekend”s Saturday Review gives an overview of relevant price action and influential patterns that explain how the market got here, where it”s probably heading, and how to know otherwise.

We also reviewed the Euro, Gold and Crude Oil markets, then stock chart requests from attendees. The chat that accompanied it is below… Click here for the recording.

Mark : gm
c d: hi0
Miss Kitty: Here. Good morning.
David : Morning
duan : gm
julie : gm
Mark : is an old pattern of surging above prior high very briefly & starting a big downleg still possible but no longer likely?
Mark : higher to whatever degree
Mark : ok
julie : car-t conference coming up
c d: intc
julie : Blcm TRIL
julie : biotech conference. related to cancer break thrus
julie : EW and BIIB showed showed some evidence of breaking out. watched them this week pretty careful. do u see any accumulation patterns?
c d: tks
julie : fairly recent Ipo but md”s love it
julie : md”s also love love loveit
julie : they got $$$ so that might be in the mix
julie : yes. big $$ thrown at stuff they like i notice
julie : ty
Miss Kitty: What is the bigger picture on th chart for bonds?
tamara : I got here late so if you have done theseI can review the recording. RIG, ALXN, ABX,KING, OIL, GOLD
Miss Kitty: Thanks.
tamara : NLNK upside target
julie : actually gapped up on break thru in alzheimers. then the related sector
julie : got hit with a market pull back.
julie : they had v. good news for their trials and that = that gap up
julie : EW also same. v. good news on their heart valve break thru. market in general took it back almost immediately
julie : fairly thin. big bid/spreads in the orders
julie : ty
tamara : thanks Rod
tamara : Thanks Rod
julie : ty rod

UPDATE: You missed it! Email me for its recording. Enjoy the weekend!

What”s the 411 on this rally effort? 

Get it — 411? It”s a double entendre for directory assistance AND for today”s date, April 11.

Unless, of course, you”re in Europe, where the number for directory “enquiries” begins 118, and date formats are day/month. So, Europeans won”t know the
411 118 until 11 August… China”s date formats are also day/month, but the directory assistance number is 114. China prepared for this day. Which, I suppose, explains a lot.

Anyway, I”ll see you this morning at
9:30am ET for this weekend”s Saturday Review. We”ll discuss the 411 on this week”s bookends of an S&P rally, breakout and confirmation. We”ll also get the 118 on the Euro sitting at big support, while Crude Oil and Gold are trying to resume their recent rallies. Then we”ll get the 114 on your stock chart analysis requests. 

Follow this link up to one half-hour before 9:30am ET:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy

It has been a month since Feb 24-25”s topping signal. Despite having trended down considerably, and having stopped trending down two weeks ago, there remains great vulnerability to resuming the decline. Extending down even a little could mean extending down a lot. 

Not a little a lot, but a lot a lot.

The major patterns forming were reviewed during this weekend”s Saturday Review. Stock requests from subscribers were also included. Its recording is linked here, and the accompanying chat is pasted below.

We didn”t have time to review any of the setups that were instrumental as the basis for several trades. I”ll do that separately and upload their videos to the blog.

d d: no
David B: yes
David B: i did originally
David B: restart my computer
Miss Kitty: Manual join
tom : so if the bottom of symetrical triangle holds is minimum target 2068
David B: might we be trending down as analysts are lowering their earnings to a point when we get to earnings bad news is already discounted?
Bill G: If a triangle, wouldn”t it require a couple more swings within the range to complete?
julie : thanks for the saturday class Rod. much appreciate your time here
Bill G: I was thinking five legs
Bill G: The fifth wave usually truncated
Bill G: y
David B: unemployment report on fri with market closed does this mean will see more of the trend of the week completed by wed?
S M: This is a more general question that I”ve wanted to ask for some time (I hope that a Saturday session is the appropriate time): Your methodology relies heavily on the principle that the TIME / TIMING of notable market movements is key to understanding the intrinsic nature of those movements. My question is WHY is time relevant? Why couldn”t strong hands take action during times that are outside your expected parameters (i.e., after the bias window closes, etc)?
Mark : is the likeliest here still breaking higher first ?
Miss Kitty: What would be some lower targets in the months to come — or is such projection dependent on the pattern as it goes down?
Mark : do u expect a major move on a reaction to ESR next Fri similar to that we had last month or too early to say that?
Winston Willis: I have a question: how can I take better advantage of moments when you say “and it could go here or there” i.e. volatility
S M: I have follow-up questions, but I”ll save them. Thanks
Mark : need a gap under 40-42 to trend down decisively?
julie : For chart requests: Chips got some news on INTC”s possible/targeted aquisitions. There appeared to be a jolt of movement on a couple of chips that I hold long: NXPI AMBA. could you view the chart/s and give commentary on what you see on the price movements? ty
julie : Additional chart requests: Several biotechs released very good news on their developments. some even jumped up 30% on a single day. However shortly afterwards, there was a lot of talk about the bubbly nature of the sector and time to take profits etc.. and there was significant retracement: examples are BIIB ESPR EW. can display their charts and give your take on any insights that you might have? I entered long starter positions on them during Friday”s range.
tom : Rod on a 1 hr chart of the /es the pattern forming appears to be identical to pattern before last substantial drop. Can you look at that
David B: GPRO,FB
tom : yes
tom : 2100 to 2080
tom : 22nd of March
tom : that patter is identical to pattern below and every leg is very close to symetrical
tom : entered around the 19th
David B: SWKS
tom : please do because every leg appears symetrical
julie : no. amba or nxpi
tom : and the next leg down is symetrical to your targets
julie : near field communication= nxpi
julie : no… fine
julie : was just saying what it was.
julie : yes
julie : ty
julie : lots of short interest on AMBA
julie : AMBA= the A/V “guts” of go pro and police and security servellience camera technology
julie : ty rod
julie : Cyber security starting back up again? Your watched stock: FEYE and maybe PANW ( supposed darling of the group)?
julie : BIIB= very promising news on lowerring the plaques of alzheimer”s= sigtnificant gap up
julie : ESPR had great news on lowering cholosterol w/o statins. huge news
julie : = big recent gap up
julie : EW= another new block buster news. b/c of advances in their heartvalve technology will not need to break the breastbone of patients during surgery. Huge news b/c many elderly patients do not recover from the breaking of the bones
julie : ty rod.
David B: thanks
julie : and this one is my ridiculous casino play: NBG?
julie : lol
julie : very news driven/event driven
julie : ty rod
tom : Rod after you look at chart pattern could you please send an email and let me know what you think
Rod David: Absolutely Tom — thanks for sharing the observation