Saturday Review

I updated my Feb 24-25 topping signal at my weekly “Saturday Review” this morning. If you missed it, email me for a link to its recording — CLICK HERE

Plan to join us tomorrow morning at 9:30am ET for my weekly Saturday Review. Just click here up to 30 minutes prior, no extra password required, and it”s no extra charge. [pretest your system here]

• ANALYSIS. I”ll update my topping signal that triggered at the Feb 24-25 high. The reaction down since then has created new patterns to monitor.
• LEARNING. We”ll replay some of the week”s more influential repetitive setups that gave us advance notice of meaningful intraday moves.
• STRATEGY. We”re also going to game out the appropriate strategies for Sunday night and Monday morning”s likely opens.
• QUESTIONS: You”ll have time to ask questions and to request instant chart analysis of any stock or market you”re following.

Meanwhile, members can review my Resource page. Especially if you”re new to my methodology, watch and re-watch the Training Session videos (below). Make a batch of popcorn, pour your favorite beverage, put your arm around your significant other, and… sounds like a great Friday night. Check out the bias parameter videos, too.

Training video #1
Training video #2
3x3x4 Decision matrix

See you Saturday morning!

 Rod

This weekend”s bigger picture discussion plotted out the exact path higher, how to know almost instantly Monday morning whether the market is still on it — and how to know that it is not. As important, we also described the confirming character of either move, and their consequences.

Click here for its recording, and scroll down for its accompanying chat among members. My thanks to all who attended, and to those that asked questions and offered comments…

David B:Good Morning

Mark :gm

sunni a:gm

Mark :FWIW BTV mentioned yesterday 2600 target for ES this year

sunni a:2060 fomc level @2pm which it should revisit?

Mark :2061.50

David B:was the actively bullishish indicator on wed closed invalidated so shouldn”t the bias be up for monday morning?

Mark :is retracing FOMC reaction down to 2061.50 still a likelihood by Wed?

sunni a:if so….38.25 point down from here….good short position?

David B:is it also because of the no bias trending?

David B:does that also apply to other signals like a confirmation of two higher closes like no bias trending?

David B:ok

Mark :can this still break higher?

David B:china PMI and greece news could change all of this or you think these are non events?

Mark :durably

Mark :does this formation below looks like inverse H&S – head b/w 13-15th?

Mark :gapping down under Fri low would not form an island, right?

Bill G:I think your 3/11 low is Mar but your 3/13 low is Jun

David B:they took about the death cross when the 50 day crosses the 200 day. in your work if you looked at this pattern would you also say its was a bearish pattern for a stock or index?

David B:in your work would they confirm?

Bill G:SentimenTrader found them unreliable

Mark :TSLA

David B:BBRY

Mark :IBB

charlie :gm, jpm

Mark :qbove 220

Mark :if not targetting 130-140?

Bill G:For clarity, my comment on SentimenTrader was on the death cross. being unreliable. I”m not sure of his position on moving averages in general.

David B:FINL,NKE

David B:earnings on fri for BBRY

charlie :tksjpm

charlie :tks

This weekend”s Saturday Review (recording linked here) focused on Friday morning”s drop, which ignored the traction that was gained by Thursday”s rally. That was a dangerous stage to reinforce the decline.

Every signal can be rejected by violating its limitations. And almost every rejected signal becomes an opposing signal. If Monday”s open is extending Friday”s rejection of Thursday”s rally, then it may be extending the decline to sharply lower levels.

This coming week”s known highest-profile influences are Wednesday”s FOMC policy statement / quarterly Fed Chair Q&A, and Friday”s “quadruple witch” expiration. Volatility should be high.

Add any follow-up questions or discussion with other members to the comments section of this blog post. Meanwhile, please check out the Resource page (linked from the sidebar icons). Notice the first set of “Quick Links” that retrieves each category of daily blog posts — no more endless scrolling! Below that is the “Daily Schedule” of where/when to find regular intraday updates. The link to Thursday”s Training Session recording is also there. I”ll announce the next session for this week (probably for Thursday again) by Monday.

The member chat accompanying Saturday Review is below…

[09:31:58 ] David B: Good Morning

[09:31:58 ] Mark : gm

[09:32:01 ] c d: hi0

[09:32:11 ] william serex: gm all good tks

[09:54:50 ] Mark : is retest of 2117 high with OB RSIs is completely dismissed or can still happen?

[09:58:45 ] David B: fed and options expiration this week. you think if the fed doesn”t remove patience we could see a test of the highs real quick?

[10:01:09 ] Rod David: If you have no audio, please reboot

[10:02:10 ] Mark : 2110 JUN

[10:04:38 ] David B: what level we closed would indicate we are going to test the 2110 JUN? 2087?

[10:08:36 ] Mark : do u think euro”s behavior trumps fed”s petience?

[10:08:56 ] Mark : patience

[10:10:05 ] sunni a: good question MG

[10:12:33 ] David B: the dollar rally or decline on a daily basis has been a focus on the market lately. would you agree?

[10:13:58 ] Mark : yeah

[10:15:39 ] sunni a: oil…now, euro…agree

[10:17:56 ] David B: NXPI,CEMP

[10:18:53 ] David B: ORCL,TSO

[10:19:36 ] william : CSCO

[10:19:48 ] tamara : what are the current levels for oil and gold

[10:21:20 ] Joel : CLDX, VRNS

[10:26:41 ] tamara : Thank you

[10:30:11 ] David B: is volume on cemp confirming this rally?

[10:31:55 ] tamara : IBB,AFL

[10:35:03 ] william : Tks

[10:39:28 ] Joel : Yes

[10:40:33 ] tamara : KING,ELP,WTW

[10:43:25 ] Mark : do u see a major top coming on IBB?

[10:50:50 ] David B: so it could see either way a big move?

[10:50:53 ] David B: orcl

[10:57:06 ] tamara : i dont think so

[11:04:27 ] David B: thanks

[11:04:32 ] Mark : thx much

[11:06:57 ] tamara messmann: thank yo

[11:07:16 ] tamara messmann: that was very helpful.

[MY NEW TRANSCRIPTIONIST IS EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY, SORRY FOR THE DELAY… COMMENT ON THIS POST IF YOU WANT ME TO NOTIFY YOU WHEN A TRANSCRIPTION IS AVAILABLE]

Thanks to all who attended this weekend”s Saturday Review. It was standing room only (sorry that I forgot to bring any chairs). Click here to view the recording. The accompanying chat is pasted below. And below that (as soon as I receive it) you”ll find a transcript of the first half”s market discussion.

Rod David: WELCOME TO THIS WEEKEND”S SATURDAY REVIEW. WE”LL BEGIN (EARLY) AT 9:00AM ET.
c d: hi
Mark : gm
M K: trend is your friend
M K: when does that statement stop being true
M K: =)
M K: was that mar 4 low optimism?
M K: also yesterdays low got close to filling the gap
M K: should provide some magnitism to it?
M K: ok
M K: OK
Mark Glezer: what close would signal a trend reversal?
M K: AAPL
M K: AMZN
M K: LNKD
M K: BWLD
M K: FB
M K: LL
M K: NFLX
M K: RH
M K: TPX
david b: BAC,USB
M K: SODA
M K: HD
M K: IBB
M K: And I”m done
tamara : AFL,KING,CEO,IBB,BIIB
M K: honestly
M K: no worries on mine
Mark Glezer: trend reversal on ES – Q
M K: i”ll bring something up during the week
M K: if its actionable
david b: MU,GMCR
M K: I”ll cherry pick
M K: RH at waht point if short would you cover 1 more higer close?
M K: TPX – would you press a short on a close under 53.70
M K: SODA looks super weak. Interested in bottom fishing
M K: OK
M K: OK sound sgood
M K: have a good weekend
M K: can you flag
M K: an island?
M K: ok
david b: thanks

In this weekend”s Saturday Review we discussed the blow-off top pattern we”ve been tracking for weeks-to-months. We discussed this week”s topping signal and its confirmation(s). We discussed the past two sessions” weakness. Then, naturally, we discussed why another rally leg is likely. Stock chart analysis requests from subscribers were done during the session”s last 45 minutes.

Click here to watch…

Accompanying chat:

David B: good morning

Mark : hi

Gail : good morning

Mark : Would u expect the topping process to continue for a few

more days since u do not expect a close under 2100 on Mon?

Gary : The biotech sector has been very strong, what do you think

of IBB?

Mark : could u please repeat the answer to my Q as I had to

restart?

tamara : please review gold and oil please

David B: GOOGL,BBY

Mark : ok

Mark : CPLP – still looking for 10?

tamara : AMGN,CELG,GILD,BIIB,AAPL,KO,PFE

Mark : Euro longer term – looking lower perhaps on par with

dollar?

Gary : breaking 342 or 335 would give direction?

David B: earnings this week too much optimism?

David B: greeting it from strength?

David B: tues

David B: before

David B: open

Gary : AMGN is 7% of IBB.

David B: FNSR,SDRL

Gary : the divergance between IBB and two of it”s largest holdings

is very interesting.

David B: earnings on thursday

Mark : Euro longer term Q above

David B: AXP,SODA

David B: does 77 need to be tested?

David B: is a bottom in?

David B: what level a closed below would be a concern?

Gary : I never thought of using Fib. retracement this way. how did

you come up with this?

David B: not sure

David B: maybe because of MNST earnings

Mark : Euro Q

tamara : gold and oil

tamara : great Thanks so much Rod. Extremely helpful.

Mark : merci beaucoup

David B: thanks

Gary : Thanks