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Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2712.25 | 2711.00 |
| …would target | 2720.25 | 2719.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2705.75 | 2704.50 |
| …would target | 2698.50 | 2697.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Just recovering 1.1400 would start to signal momentum reversing up, but Friday probed Thursday’s low down to 1.1355, presumably intent upon filling the gap back to the 1.1350 3-week old low close — which would not merit adjusting the buy signal.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Friday to the 1317.00 buy signal hovered there throughout the day, still overlapping the signal without clearly triggering or rejecting it.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up above the 15.80 buy signal Friday reacted back down to nearly fill the gap back to Thursday’s close, and the afternoon evolved between 15.75-15.80.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already trending higher overnight gapped up Friday and extended higher through the morning to essentially fulfill the 147-00 objective. Upside momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 146-14 as support.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 52.40 sell signal that had been probed momentarily Thursday continued holding Friday, as did the 52.00 sell signal whose break would not require extending through the close to be relevant.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s fresh lows didn’t extend lower Friday, and without fresh lows into the weekend there is potential for attracting buyers going into the new week.
Mid-day Update… Still comfy at the lows.
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens when the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 ET. Daily Spot will be today’s last post. There will be no Market Wrap or Saturday Review.
3-4 recovery attempts have interrupted several probes of fresh or otherwise relevant lows. The 2690.00 gap down reacted up 7 points. Its reaction down to 2683.50 reaction up 10 points. The bias environment’s exit at 2681.00-2682.00 reacted up 10 points, too.
Pretty big reactions up, but has the last one finally trapped sellers? Actually, the last reaction up has extended to 14 points, testing this afternoon’s 2693.75 bias-up signal up to 2695.00. It was still being tested at both 1:20 and 1:30 to trigger noN-bias.
No requirement to hold as resistance, although back under 2690.00 would start to signal another downleg may be underway. And no requirement to meet its bias-up target, although back above 2695.00 would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher, anyway.
This being a Friday, isolating failed trending attempts to the morning’s timing windows can form a session bottom. Recovering 2688.00-2690.00 into the noon hour would have isolated this morning’s fresh lows, but 2688.00-2690.00 was still being tested at noon. Exiting the noon hour higher could have been bullish, but it failed to trigger bias-up. The decline isn’t required to resume today, but sellers are NOT marginalized.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 11, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: An entire slow week for the calendar only becomes slower in the new week, as absolutely no nothing is scheduled coming out of the weekend. Spoiler alert: The week does start getting busier.
No econ reports are scheduled for today.
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2695.00 | 2693.75 |
| …would target | 2702.25 | 2701.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2682.25 | 2681.00 |
| …would target | 2675.50 | 2674.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.