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Post-open Review… Fresh lows.
Opening surge snaps back down, hard.
The pre-open test of this morning’s 2687.00 bias-down target became a Double Bottom whose RSIs diverged positively. 
Bouncing before the open pulled back to extend even higher post-open, surging to resistance at 2697.00.
Gapping down under yesterday afternoon’s 2687.00 bias environment low could have formed a bearish session long decline. It wasn’t even tested at the open, so the alternative isn’t necessarily bullish. In fact, the post-open surge was retraced to probe 2 points under yesterday’s lows down to 2683.25.
The post-open surge held a test of the 2695.00 bias-down signal, and the 10:15 bias window was overlapping its 2687.00 bias-down target. Bias-down is not renewed, but this is still a bias-down environment. Extending any lower would next target 2682.-2683.00, and there’s no bullish reason to revisit it now.
Meanwhile, another bounce is now testing the 2688.00-2690.00 range’s upper-end. Back under 2684.50 would signal the decline is resuming. A bigger bounce might form, but I’ll be focused on the downside since early sellers were a little too easily absorbed to be confident they’ve been expended.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Comfier at the lows.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Overnight action had trended down relentlessly to test “lower prior highs” at 2708.00-2709.00 ahead of Thursday’s open. A little deeper post-open test down to 2685.50 initially held, but the morning’s bias environment ultimately collapsed to its next lower objective at 2688.00-2690.00. The noon hour held two tests of 2685.50 and the balance of the session gradually recovered back up to 2705.25.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday afternoon’s bias environment had been contained by 2700.00 and only the last half-hour had surged to 2705.25. Globex immediately began retracing the late surge, and then some, until touching the upper-end of 2688.00-2690.00. Ranging sideways through midnight suddenly found life at Europe’s opens, rallying up to 2699.00. The effort peaked under yesterday afternoon’s pre-surge 2700.00 highs. Quickly reversing back down held a couple of tests of 2693.00, and is now collapsing to probe the lower-end of 2688.00-2690.00 (to within 1 tick of the 2687.00 bias-down target).
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens when the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 ET. There will be no Market Wrap or Saturday Review… Thursday’s close was neither here, nor there. Closing under 2701.00 after probing under it intraday would have signaled a much deeper drop underway. Closing back above 2708.00-2709.00 would have signaled that sellers were absorbed, and that momentum had reversed up. Gapping up or down enough could serve by proxy to suggest that either setup is developing anyway — subject to confirmation through the close. Gapping down enough means under Thursday afternoon’s 2689.00 low, which could also form a “session-long decline” setup. At least its test is currently being threatened. Holding its test through the open could instead form a low that recovers intraday.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2690.75 would be likely to trigger the 2695.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2698.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2711.00 | 2709.50 |
| …would target | 2719.00 | 2717.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2696.25 | 2695.00 |
| …would target | 2688.25 | 2687.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens Friday when the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 ET. There will be no Market Wrap or Saturday Review.
Thursday’s open was greeted by a relentless overnight slide from 2731.00 down to 2712.00. “Lower prior highs” at 2708.00-2709.00 had been pierced before the open, but needed an intraday test for a recovery to be reliable. The open held its test down to 2705.25 and reacted up to 2718.50, but a headline reaction triggered a collapse to fresh lows.
Not only to fresh lows, but to the next lower objective at 2688.00-2690.00. It was tested down to 2685.50 during the noon hour, which held. Its reaction only backed-and-filled up to 2700.00. The last half-hour broke higher to touch the 2705.25 pre-open low as resistance.
Closing back above 2708.00-2709.00 would have signaled that sellers were absorbed, and that momentum had reversed up. By proxy, gapping up Friday above Thursday’s open could be just as bullish and durable. The decline could simply resume, since it hasn’t yet been rejected. And having bounced into the close, gapping down to and/or through Thursday afternoon’s 2689.00 low could form a session-long decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already having missed the end of its window to rally by Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday trended down further and so did the overnight. Thursday’s open gapped down to the 61.8% retracement of the 2-week old low close and the next day’s gap up (view Market Wrap for details) at 1.1366. It held, and now closing above 1.1400 would reverse momentum back up.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness down to 1306.50 filled another gap that helped to neutralize its attraction below, while remaining within the orbit of last Thursday’s 1328.30 gap up that still needs to be retested from below, probably up to 1333.00. Closing back up above 1317.00 would signal the recovery underway again.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Lower lows overnight down to 15.63 need to define the pullback’s low to keep alive potential for retracing the current leg back up to 16.16 without needing first to form a bottoming pattern. Closing back above 15.80 would signal the recovery underway.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already rallying to a fresh high again overnight further chipped away at the 146-04 resistance to allow retesting the 147-00 prior high, if not also to resume the rally. Thursday’s gap up ranged sideways around Wednesday’s 146-09 high, needing a higher close to signal momentum remains intact.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging overnight trended down sharply Thursday from Wednesday’s 54.00 close to probe the 52.15 sell signal down to 51.80. A gap fill at 52.00 requires a second consecutive lower close to confirm momentum reversing down, and meanwhile closing back above 53.20 would reject Thursday’s sell signal and reverse the trend back up.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was being greeted from a position of weakness before probing even lower overnight. Thursday extended down to fresh lows attacking 2.55, maintaining a pattern that is unable to trigger a buy signal.