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Saturday Review’s recording (for 1/26/19) …Range-bound week.
The week ended with a retest of last Friday’s close, which was the highest close of the current bear market rally. So, did the week’s interim sellers accomplish nothing? They did chip away at support, which will be relevant if ever retested. Did the week’s buyers accomplish anything? They did neutralize the attraction above back to the prior Friday’s gap. Otherwise, nothing developed that makes either direction more likely than the other. But those signals were clarified, and we describe them during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GE, AMZN, LMT, MMM, SBUX, V, AAPL, AMD, ALGN, MSFT, FB, TSLA, NOW, MA, UPS, FDX
transcript
—————– (01/26/2019 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review… Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
David B: Good Morning
ljr: gm
Adam: hi
Mark G: gm
ljr: shutdown over gap up?
—————– (01/26/2019 09:35) —————–
ljr: yes
ljr: oh, was not watching.
—————– (01/26/2019 10:04) —————–
Mark G: any time expectation how long a move to retest the Dec low develops?
—————– (01/26/2019 10:06) —————–
David B: it seems this week that market did not really care about the china news. do you think the market has priced in?
ljr: is there any relevance to 2018 jan top being almost 1 year ago?
—————– (01/26/2019 10:09) —————–
David B: so this move up since jan has been weak hands?
—————– (01/26/2019 10:11) —————–
David B: are we going to need to see the nasdaq under perform which will start to tell us the bear market rally is over?
—————– (01/26/2019 10:13) —————–
David B: it seems like speculation is back with semi conductor stocks really out performing?
—————– (01/26/2019 10:15) —————–
David B: GE,AMZN
ljr: LMT, MMM (Tues pre-open)AAPL, AMD, ALGN (tues close)
David B: SBUX,V
—————– (01/26/2019 10:18) —————–
David B: is $ 9.00 on GE a key level for a break out?
—————– (01/26/2019 10:26) —————–
ljr: LMT earnings this tues
ljr: yes
—————– (01/26/2019 10:33) —————–
ljr: MSFT, FB, TSLA,NOW (earnings Wed close)
—————– (01/26/2019 10:36) —————–
ljr: V earnings this week i believe
—————– (01/26/2019 10:47) —————–
ljr: MA, UPS (both Thurs pre-open)
ljr: thx
David B: FDX
—————– (01/26/2019 10:51) —————–
ljr: thx for today.
—————– (01/26/2019 10:54) —————–
David B: Thanks
Mark G: thx much
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2671.00 | 2670.75 |
| …would target | 2680.00 | 2679.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2658.75 | 2658.25 |
| …would target | 2650.25 | 2649.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The overnight rally was already testing 2656.00 before a late surge to 2662.00 greeted Friday’s open. That allowed a post-open dip to attack 2656.00 as support. It held, and the rally soon resumed. Extending up through 2666.00. filled the gap back to last Friday’s ~2671.00 close. Natural resistance.
The afternoon’s 2672.50 bias-up target was touched at the noon hour’s high. Its reaction attacked 2660.00 at the noon hour’s low. Bouncing only to retest 2666.00 was short of triggering bias-up, which tends to end upside momentum on Friday. Another dip to 2660.00 almost defined the balance of the afternoon until a late break lower.
The afternoon gained no traction for the morning’s rally effort — the bias environment exit and final hour’s entry were both within the noon hour’s range. Closing above 2666.00 would have put back into play the bear market rally’s next higher objective at 2701.00. Closing under 2656.00 would give sellers traction, but Monday’s open can also do that by proxy.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
PLEASE JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THE WEEKLY SATURDAY REVIEW
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying overnight gapped up Friday t 1.1390 and immediately retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s collapse to begin suggesting that was only an ECB related anomaly. Extending higher through Wednesday’s attack on 1.1450 all but confirms momentum has reversed up.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Consolidating between 1277.50-1283.00 finally resolved Friday morning, surging to probe prior highs at 1300.00, and presumably reinstating upside momentum next targeting 1319.50 so long as 1292.00 now holds as support.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The consolidation under 15.40 finally resolved up Friday morning, at least producing its most aggressive attempt, by returning into the previous channel up to 15.70. Further recovery potential requires holding 15.60 as support.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap up had firmed slightly through the close, but was still likely to back-and-fill before resuming the rally. An overnight dip gapped down to recent “lower prior highs” at 145-08 and tested 144-30 intraday. Any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher, but back under 144-24 would launch a new downleg.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight strength to 54.20 essentially filled the gap back last Friday’s false breakout before reversing to greet Friday’s open unchanged. Intraday action trended back up to attack the overnight high. Any initial strength Monday would be likely to extend higher intraday.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s rally from its maximum corrective pullback limit was initially extended higher overnight to test 3.20. Opening Friday back under Thursday’s highs dipped to 3.05 support before rallying to attack 3.20 into the weekend, all in-line with forming a bottom.