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Mid-day Update… Holding up.
Resistance holds, but not rejected.
Opening above 2656.00 and extending up to 2666.00 didn’t satisfy buyers. This morning’s rally extended to fill the gap back up to last Friday’s ~2671.00 close. Its reaction down to 2663.00 was recovered to pierce the morning’s high up to 2672.50 during the noon hour.
That was also this afternoon’s bias-up target. And it reacted down through the 2669.75 bias-up signal to attack 2660.00. During the morning bias, this set would have put into play offsetting tests of BOTH bias-down parameters. Not necessarily during the afternoon.
The potential just diminished for simply gravitating higher through the close. That requires exiting the bias environment at fresh session highs, which is difficult during a no-bias environment. That said, greeting the bias environment exit at its 2669.75 bias-up signal and immediately breaking higher would be credible. Otherwise, flat-to-lower through the afternoon is likelier.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 28, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Only one of the Fed surveys (Philly Fed) is reliably influential to price action. Neither of Monday’s two Fed surveys is it. But both are still high-profile enough to generate a reaction if either one’s data are wildly surprising.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2670.25 | 2669.75 |
| …would target | 2673.00 | 2672.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2658.25 | 2658.00 |
| …would target | 2651.00 | 2650.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Strreeetch.
Last higher objectives tested, probed.
Except for “unfinished business” left outstanding yesterday at the morning’s 2650.00 bias-up target, 
there was also potential up to 2656.00 and 2666.00. Both are tested, now probed.
The overnight rally had tested 2656.00 and reacted back down to the support of 2650.00 (which is also this morning’s bias-up target). Its recovery was already testing 2662.00 before the open. A brief dip recovered to now fill the gaps back up to last Friday’s ~2671.00 close.
RSIs already diverged negatively while probing 2666.00. Its knee-jerk reaction attacked 2662.00 and spiked back up to eventually test ~2671.00. RSIs continued diverging negatively. None of which is a sell signal, but does allow using a more aggressive sell signal. Back under 2667.00 and 2665.75 would be start signaling momentum is reversing down.
Exiting the bias environment above 2656.00, let alone above 2666.00, would be difficult to reverse down today. The topping pattern begun last Friday would become suspicious, and potential up to 2701.00 would be reinstated — albeit once again subject to confirmation from a second consecutive higher close on Monday.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Neutralizing upside attractions.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s session was greeted by a choppy sideways overnight range. Post-open trending attempts poked at either end of the 2632.00-2645.00 range, but couldn’t get anywhere since starting from a standing stop. The open’s tests of 2632.00 support were isolated to help trigger bias-up, but the morning’s 2650.00 bias-up target became “unfinished business.” The noon hour’s test of 2632.00 wasn’t isolated, and the afternoon’s 2627.25 bias-down target was tested to 2626.00. A likely attraction to 2625.00 was not fulfilled, so neither was the ongoing potential for 2605.00. bias environment lapsed and the balance of the session eked higher to attack 2643.00 at the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
INTC’s earnings miss and lower guidance triggered a post-close spike down to 2633.50. It was eventually recovered and reversed to test 2645.00, and then higher to attack 2652.00. Sideways ranging since then expanded momentarily to touch 2645.00 below and 2653.00 above. Now a break higher to 2656.00 is reacting back down to 2650.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Having neutralized the attraction up to 2650.00, the bearish scenario could retake control at any time without leaving “unfinished business” to inhibit a decline. Not already reversing down through the open would suggest the corrective bounce will revisit 2656.00 for another chance to reverse down, or else to extend higher to 2666.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2651.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2650.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2647.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2643.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.