members-only
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2643.75 | 2643.75 |
| …would target | 2650.00 | 2650.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2630.50 | 2630.75 |
| …would target | 2624.00 | 2624.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s session shows how difficult it can be to trend from a standing stop. The 2632.00-2645.00 overnight range was choppy, but hadn’t broken higher before the open. So, the post-open trending attempts weren’t much more likely to suddenly attract sponsorship that wasn’t enthused only hours earlier.
Tests of 2632.00 support had been isolated until the noon hour. All of the chipping away at had begun requiring at least obligatory probe lower. The afternoon’s bias-down complied by triggering and testing its 2627.25 target down to 2626.00. A test of 2625.00 was likely but not fulfilled, so neither was the ongoing potential for 2605.00.
The afternoon’s bias-down environment hovered at its 2635.00 bias-down signal until the window began lapsing. Eking higher to attack 2643.00 at the close stopped far short of the morning’s outstanding 2650.00 bias-up target this is now “unfinished business.” It’s not any closer after the futures close reacted down to 2633.50 on INTC’s earnings miss and lower guidance.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s early break above downtrending resistance was likely to extend higher intraday. A second consecutive higher close on Thursday would have reversed the trend up, but its early strength was blind-sided by Draghi’s comments after the ECB policy statement. Now a close above 1.1400 would trigger a trend reversal.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping back down Thursday to 1277.50 reacted up to 1283.00, both inflection points holding their tests instead of either one breaking to trigger new trending.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s recovery back up to 15.40 again still wasn’t exploited Thursday as the session hovered under it, and just above 15.22 support.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having filled the gap back down to Friday’s 144-18 close and neutralizing its attraction at Wednesday’s open, Thursday’s gap up above 145-08 was finally able to avoid rejection. A quick dip to 145-08 before extending higher into the weekend would be the optimal bullish pattern to reverse the trend up.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s session was once again defined by the 52.33-53.40 range, even through the morning’s delayed weekly EIA report. The gap outstanding above is likely to be filled, which would be bullish before the weekend if exceeded.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s test of 3.05 “lower prior highs” and Thursday’s 61.8% retracement of the prior low’s range at 2.95 had no excuse to delay forming a bottom, other than Thursday’s EIA report. There was no pessimistic knee-jerk reaction, and the session ended higher. An intraday dip should recover to close higher if a bottom has formed.
Mid-day Update… Tough to stray.
Finally probing the range.
The sideways overnight 2632.00-2645.00 range didn’t break either way, not before the open or after it. 
Post-open trending has been contained within the range. It’s always difficult to start trending from a standing stop.
Which isn’t to say that the range’s ends aren’t being tested. Support at 2632.00 was tested twice during the open’s bias timing window, and touched during the noon hour. Each window isolated its test of 2632.00. Until the noon hour, whose probe under 2632.00 was extended down to 2626.00.
That fulfills this afternoon’s 2627.25 bias-down target. It held through 1:20 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. There’s room for noise below to also test 2625.00. Again. And potential for retesting 2625.00 to also visit 2605.00.
Meanwhile, unfinished business at this morning’s 2650.00 bias-up target would be the likely reward for any recovery. Room for noise above it to 2656.00 or 2666.00 would maintain the trading range, and also not yet signal it is resolving up instead of down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 25, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open report is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. And it’s being announced in a vacuum, so any market reaction is likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open report.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET