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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday formed a setup similar to a previous setup in the current channel that had resolved down, making this instance likelier to resolve up. Surging Wednesday morning extended to attack 1.1450, with a second consecutive higher close on Thursday able to confirm momentum reversing up.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Although still not extending back above 1283.00 since recovering it Tuesday, Wednesday also recovered a shallower dip to keep alive the upside potential.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s recovery up to 15.40 had not extended higher, remaining vulnerable to another dip. Wednesday’s dip did recover to 15.40.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting down to and through 144-24 at Wednesday’s open was absorbed to retest the 145-08 buy signal, which held to avoid invalidating the recent break lower or to trigger a recovery.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s open was greeted back at the upper-end of 53.00-53.40 but only dipped to its lower-end intraday. Breaking higher beyond the narrow range would signal at least a retest of Friday’s high, if not also another breakout attempt from the same multi-session range.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday from Tuesday’s collapse was reversed down to fresh lows at 2.95 in the deepest test of “lower prior highs” that must to hold to maintain recovery potential.
Mid-day Update… Last ditch.
Noon hour bounce gains no traction.
This morning’s drop extended to 2632.50 while still being required to retrace the 2638.50 bias-up signal. Its retracement was close enough to the bias environment lapsing that its attraction was neutralized. The drop resumed down to the noon hour’s 2612.50 low.
2605.00 is still the likely objective.
Bouncing through the noon hour has extended to attack this afternoon’s 2631.25 bias-up signal. A couple of supportive levels could slow a reversal down, but back under 2622.75 would start to signal the decline has resumed.
Otherwise, probing any higher would require being retraced, but not after the bias environment starts lapsing. Even the most bearish drop isn’t required to resume today, but closing in negative territory if not also under yesterday’s 2616.50 low would be likely unless a bigger bounce were about to begin.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jan 24, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is the week’s busiest. It also contains 2-3 high-profile items that are reliably influential to price action. And it begins with the ECB policy statement, which probably won’t be surprising in itself, but is followed by Mario Draghi’s Q&A that often finds a way for its effort at transparency to create more uncertainty. Any net reaction to pre-open reports is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports.
*ECB policy statement / Draghi Q&A
7:45 AM / 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Composite FLASH
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2631.25 | 2631.25 |
| …would target | 2637.50 | 2637.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2615.25 | 2615.50 |
| …would target | 2605.50 | 2605.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Running out of room to run.
Overnight rally extends, then collapses.
The 2627.50-2642.00 overnight range had broken higher to 2647.00 long enough before the open that its failure would likely be more than just noise. 
Extending higher post open attacked 2654.00, but barely held above the 2646.75 bias-up target at 10:15.
That officially renewed the bias-up signal. But the same downleg underway at 10:15 continued extending down, with room back down to the 2638.50 bias-up signal during the bias-up environment. It was tested at 10:30, but its reaction up to 2643.00 maintained the downside momentum.
Fresh pullback lows have now retraced 61.8% of the earlier overnight range down to 2632.50. A retracement up to the 2638.50 bias-up signal is required for having probed under it during a bias-up environment — unless the bias environment is exited under its 2625.25 bias-down signal.
Meanwhile, a little more room for noise down to 2629.50 could still be tested, and still be likely to retrace 2638.50. But any lower would essentially target 2625.25, and at least delay the 2638.50 retest.