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Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2668.00 | 2668.50 |
| …would target | 2676.75 | 2677.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2659.25 | 2660.00 |
| …would target | 2649.25 | 2650.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… And higher.
Gap up to target is being exceeded.
The overnight rally had begun probing yesterday’s 2645.50 high to attack 2650.00, and then blipped-up to 2657.50 into the open. The actual open was also the rally’s 2656.00 next higher objective. Its resistance reacted down to 2647.00, overlapping a couple of sell signals but never attracting reinforcements.
Testing a 2651.75 buy signal at the 10:15 bias timing window got a benefit of the doubt for having absorbed sellers. Coincidentally, a favorable China trade headline several minutes later triggered a spike up to 2661.00. And now its retracement has recovered to fresh highs at 2668.50.
Having met 2656.00, no upside requirement is in-play. The next higher notable resistance — its room for noise — is at 2668.50, now being tested. Closing above 2656.00 would put into play the rally’s next higher objective at 2701.00. Closing back under 2656.00 wouldn’t be predictive of anything, other than sponsorship not exploiting the opportunity to further entrench the rally.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back at it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s wild ride had begun Wednesday afternoon, when its test of the room for noise up to 2626.00 began reacting down. The close had slid through 2613.00-2616.00 on the way to an overnight test of ~2598.00 “lower prior highs.” Thursday’s 2606.00 open immediately resumed the overnight recovery, attacking 2626.00 upon exiting the noon hour. Despite triggering bias-up, the bias environment only ranged sideways until a China trade headline triggered a surge to 2645.50. The headline’s denial triggered a 20-point reaction down that still recovered to close at 2635.00-2636.00. The minimum requirement from Tuesday’s confirmed breakout for at least an eventual third higher close was fulfilled, while closing above 2626.00 put into play the rally’s next higher objective at 2656.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Firming a little further to 2640.00 through Thursday’s close reacted down to 2633.00 through the Globex open. The recovery soon resumed until attacking Thursday’s 2645.50 high to within 3 ticks. Ranging narrowly sideways through midnight greeted Europe’s opens back down at 2640.00. It wasn’t very defensive, but it was defensive enough, and the earlier overnight high was recovered. Another dip to the range’s lower-end was also recovered, and now breaking through yesterday’s highs up to 2649.25.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Overbought RSIs at yesterday’s high had required a retest which is now neutralized. The only higher objective in-play is 2656.00, which can be invalidated by opening back under 2626.00, but no such effort is apparent — closing under 2606.00 today would be the last opportunity to invalidate yesterday’s close above 2626.00. Meanwhile, this afternoon’s bullish WedEX influence could help to extend a morning rally, or to retrace a morning pullback. Regardless, this being a three-day holiday weekend, any sponsored trending should take place this morning. And this being a Friday, the morning’s bias often persists through the noon hour.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2651.00 would be likely to exceed the 2647.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2643.00 would be likely to trigger the 2640.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2637.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2640.25 | 2640.00 |
| …would target | 2647.75 | 2647.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2630.75 | 2630.75 |
| …would target | 2623.75 | 2623.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s 2606.00 open was a 9-10 point improvement from the overnight low, which had held a test of ~2598.00 “lower prior highs.” Post-open action immediately resumed the overnight recovery, with a complete recovery to 2626.00 being the reward for having held the lower prior highs. Attacking it coming out of the noon hour helped to trigger the afternoon’s bias-up.
No sooner had the 2630.75 bias-up target become unfinished business, when a China trade headline triggered a surge to 2645.50. Its correction was hurried by an explicit denial of the original news. Reacting down 20 points was still recovered to close at 2635.00-2636.00.
Tuesday’s confirmed breakout had required an eventual third higher close, which is now neutralized. Not without creating new upside attractions. Simultaneously overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the high require a retest. And closing above 2626.00 puts into play the rally’s next higher objective at 2656.00, which can be invalidated by exiting Friday’s open back under 2626.00. Overbought RSIs can be neutralized overnight, and the higher objective can be invalidated at the open, without interfering with WedEX’s bullish influence.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.