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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh lows overnight were probed intraday Thursday after Wednesday’s ineffectual optimism. The buy signal can be lowered to 1.1475, with no requirement to trigger it, but no sell signal at work otherwise.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Attacking the range’s upper-end on Wednesday only retraced back into the range on Thursday, still not resolving and becoming increasingly likely to break suddenly and sharply in one direction or the other.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sideways ranging persisted for yet another day, remaining vulnerable to a sudden explosion beyond the range in either direction, regardless of it possibly being a false breakout.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping back up Thursday into the range was reversed to only fluctuate around the range’s 145-08 lower-end, still not signaling a break lower.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sideways ranging extended the hovering at recent highs, still likely at least to probe fresh highs regardless of the resolution.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already retracing 61.8% of Wednesday’s intraday drop overnight produced a gap up Thursday. The 61.8% retracement held 3.56 intraday to range sideways and attack Wednesday’s close. There is no new signal.
Mid-day Update… Underlying strength.
3 ticks under yesterday’s high.
Reversing down through yesterday’s last 60-90 minutes, and extending down through Europe’s opens, has now been retraced to within 3 ticks of yesterday’s 2626.50 high. Such is the power and persuasion of 2626.00, not only as a repellent as its test fulfills buying pressure, but also as an attraction from testing support.
That support is the ~2598.00 “lower prior highs” that was tested overnight. Its intraday test would have been optimal and reliable, but that hasn’t mattered to the rally underway from the open. The 2626.00 attraction is actually the reward for having absorbed the interim drop.
Extending higher would suggest that 2658.00 may be tested before the weekend. But nothing requires trending any higher today. Wednesday’s confirmed breakout does require an eventual higher close, but not necessarily today. And WedEX’s bullish influence should be evident tomorrow afternoon. Sideways ranging or an interim dip wouldn’t affect either setup.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 18, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open Fed speaker might trigger a price reaction. But only the post-open item is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action.
*John Williams Speaks
9:05 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2624.00 | 2623.75 |
| …would target | 2631.00 | 2630.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2617.00 | 2617.00 |
| …would target | 2610.00 | 2610.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Live to rise another day.
Overnight drop finds no reinforcements.
Gapping down to and through the 2598.00 “lower prior highs” would have inverted yesterday’s bullish WedEX. But its overnight test down to 2596.50 was already recovering before the open. WedEX remains bullish.
Testing and holding the bias-down target post-open would have reflected weak-handed sellers. Post-open action is rallying anyway, and not recovering the 2609.50 bias-down signal. So, at least an offsetting test of the 2619.25 bias-up signal is in-play. It has been attacked during a range that reacted down to 2611.00.
Already attacking the bias-up signal to within 3 ticks keeps it from becoming unfinished business if left outstanding. And holding the pre-open test of the 2601.00 bias-down target was too early to require an offsetting test of the 2625.25 bias-up target. But holding 2611.00 would be more vulnerable to extending higher anyway.