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Mid-day Update… Stretching the rubber band.
lede .
This morning’s no-bias environment had triggered after the open’s surge to 2387.00 failed to hold both of the 2361.00-2372.50 bias-up parameters through 10:15. The morning’s low at 2345.50 was the second test of Monday’s 2351.00 low. Neither test broke any lower or for any longer. The offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters wasn’t fulfilled.
This morning’s offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters was rendered moot, anyway, by exiting the bias environment above its bias-up target. It wasn’t a clean exit, lasting from 11:30-noon. And the open’s high wasn’t recovered until the final possible minutes. So, I’m not convinced the upside if durable.
Durable or not, the upside has been strong. The noon hour’s 2415.00 high reacted down to 2394.00, and triggered late bias-up 2 points higher. Having already met the 2409.00 bias-up target, sell signals would be credible if triggered. The bias-up target is being retested now.
Back under 2396.00 would offer one more chance to reverse the trend back down, whether into this morning’s lows or lower. Extending higher would have no particular target at this time.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 27, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday is, as usual, the week’s busiest. Two housing sector reports offer an opportunity for surprise by them potentially contradicting each other, or reinforcing an outlier. Meanwhile, any noticeable reaction to a pre-open report is likely to be duplicated by a post-open report.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2395.50 | 2396.00 |
| …would target | 2408.50 | 2409.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2374.25 | 2374.75 |
| …would target | 2362.00 | 2362.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, MET BIAS-UP TARGET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Head-fake?
Reminder: I’m away from the screens through the morning, but chaRTroom will be open.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s gap down to attack 2400.00 had been recovered and reversed into positive territory to test 2434.00 by midnight. That ended at Europe’s opens and reversed in time to greet Monday’s open attacking 2390.00, then sliding to 2368.00. Bouncing back into Friday’s range up to 2412.50 was reversed through the balance of the session to fulfill the next major objective at 2355.00 down to 2351.00 at the cash session close. Futures slid to 2340.50.
The one-year anniversary of (reporting) a high-profile stock gift.
Overnight action’s new info…
The open blipped-up to 2351.00 and then plunged to test 2317.00. All within the first 10 minutes. Most of it had been retraced 10 minutes later. More so another 10 minutes after that, testing 2353.00. Another dip down to 2325.00 held through midnight, rallying since then to test this morning’s 2361.00 bias-up target. Now a spike up has touched 2369.00. The plunge was a singular leg, and its retracement never probed lower, so it is not a “new Globex trend extreme” that would otherwise require intraday retest.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Reminder: I’m away from the screens through the morning, but chaRTroom will be open. Did Monday’s decline express so much negative sentiment, that last night’s plunge overdid it? These overnight lows don’t require a retest intraday. And having probed the prior intraday low overnight, opening above the 2353.50 earlier Globex high could form a bullish Globex-flip. Tuesday’s intervening holiday closure makes the setup less reliable, but it would be credible so long as Monday’s 2351.00 low remained untouched. Otherwise, already reversing down before or through the open would likely retest the overnight low — and lower, if its retest were to form another spike low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2366.00 would be likely to trigger the 2361.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2357.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Dec 26, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s econ calendar is active, but its reports are neither high-profile nor reliably influential to price action. Nevertheless, any noticeable reaction to a pre-open item is likely to be duplicated by a post-open item… REMINDER: I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS THROUGH THE MORNING.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET