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Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2360.50 | 2361.00 |
| …would target | 2372.00 | 2372.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2344.75 | 2345.00 |
| …would target | 2335.50 | 2335.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying Sunday night through Monday morning helped to confirm Friday’s extra dip had neutralized the attraction below. Closing above 1.1470 and 1.1500 helps to confirm a rally leg is underway.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping open Sunday night back above 1261.50 rejected Friday’s selling pressure, trending up intraday to fresh highs above 1271.00, targeting 1283.50 and 1319.50 if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s close under 14.71 wasn’t substantial, and neither was Sunday night’s gap open back above it. Firming intraday back up to 14.83 resistance triggered no new signal.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already firming into Monday’s open had begun probing above the 145-08 buy signal. But the balance of the session only fluctuated around it, requiring a second consecutive higher close above it to have confidence in a new upleg being underway.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging Sunday night was still contained within Friday’s range, but that gave way Monday as the decline resumed to new lows. There is probably no lower requirement, but almost any surge would be credible for beginning to form a low.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite having recovered an extra swing to resume forming an Ascending Triangle, Sunday night’s gap down extended to already break the pattern’s support and resume the anticipated decline, with potential down to 3.33.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
HAVE A MERRY CHRISTMAS!
Reminder: I’m away from the screens Wednesday morning, but chaRTroom will be open.
Monday’s early hours was the rare Christmas Eve session worth trading. 
Two signaled downlegs were very productive, and the next lower objective started being tested.
Sunday night’s rally up to 2434.50 reflected optimism, but not the same “hope springs eternal” optimism as last week. It was more a relief that Sunday night’s gap down had been relatively shallow, and relatively brief. Which is no more valid or credible for reversing momentum up. So momentum reversed back down, sharply, probing the Globex open’s 2401.00 low by 10 points.
The post-open drop to 2368.00 was recovered entirely to a fresh post-open high at 2412.50, but fresh lows were being attacked by noon. And then extended through the close, probing the objective’s 2345.00 lower-end down to 2340.50.
Fulfilling the decline’s next lower objective doesn’t equate to being a buy signal. It doesn’t even necessarily mean the decline is slowing its pace. Europe has yet to process this drop — the last we saw of them was retracing a relief rally. Wednesday’s chances are almost even for being either a capitulation session, or another hopeful bounce.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
chaRTroom will re-open Christmas night with Globex at 6:00 PM ET.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue, Dec 25, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s Christmas! Globex closed on Christmas Eve (Ho-ho-ho!) and re-opens normally on Christmas Day (Bah, Humbug).
Globex re-opens
6:00 PM ET
Post-open Review… Creatures are stirring, all over the house.
Post-open drop extends the decline, before being recovered.
Overnight action had resumed the decline, rejecting the overnight bounce.
Friday’s 2409.25 low and the 2401.00 Globex open were probed down to 2390.75. Bouncing back above Friday’s late low to 2414.00 resolved down through the open.
Sharply. A blip-up to Friday’s 2409.25 low collapsed down to 2368.00. Which is already within 7 points of the decline’s next lower objective at 2345.00-2361.00.
Now a bounce has recovered it all — all of the post-open drop, up to a fresh post-open high at 2412.50. Back under 2400.00 would start to signal the bounce failing.
The bearish WedEX makes the bounce likely to fail, and the morning likely to trend back down. Holiday factors make today a wild card, and the WedEX less reliable. Just closing in negative territory would satisfy the bearish WedEX, but a more bearish production than that would still be appropriate.
But the wild card may have absorbed sellers already. Surging off of the lows is an example. Back above 2309.25 again could trigger a more substantial rally leg, but the morning remains vulnerable to another downdraft.