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Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 8, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s claims may be high-profile, but it has no track record for influencing price action, and it’s the session’s only econ report… UNTIL the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement, the meeting having been delayed by one day due to the Federal elections.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2796.00 | 2795.75 |
| …would target | 2802.25 | 2802.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2786.75 | 2786.25 |
| …would target | 2781.00 | 2780.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Squeezing buyers dry.
Pre-open dip helps absorb post-open surge. Which recovers anyway.
The pre-open pullback from 2787.00 ultimately extended down to 2773.50. But the open remained no less vulnerable to a short-squeeze than if the pullback were shallower hadn’t extended so far. 
So, the 2779.25 open did get squeezed, and the opening 15 minutes of volatility pierced the overnight high by 3 ticks.
However, that was no longer a probe above overnight highs, but its retest. Rather than create that much more room to absorb a post-open dip, the pre-open pullback absorbed the post-open surge. Its reaction fell back to through the 2779.25 open to within 3 ticks of the 2773.50 pre-open low.
That was just the first half-hour. Another upleg since then is probing fresh highs up to 2792.75. It’s so far just retesting the 2787.00 area, which exiting the bias environment back under 2785.00 would signal had held. Back under 2776.00 through any relevant window would signal the overnight trend reversing down.
Otherwise, not rejecting the post-open rally and extending higher would next target the 2811.00 area, and potentially much higher — where there’s room for another corrective peak, compared to the actual high.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Last night’s big winner? The market.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Initially probing fresh highs overnight up to 2746.00 had failed to resume Monday’s rally. Later probing lower overnight to 2730.00 also failed to extend down. Extending either would have been likely to trend in that direction. Recovering 2738.00 through the open killed a bearish setup whose rejection would be as bullish as it could have been bearish. The gap back up to Friday’s 2751.25 open was filled almost immediately, and the balance of the morning ranged sideways. The noon hour’s fresh high at 2753.25 was reversed back down to 2738.00 as the bias environment began lapsing. Then it was back up to 2746.00 for more sideways ranging through the close. Oversold RSIs at the afternoon’s 2738.00 low require an eventual retest.
Overnight action’s new info…
Oh, what a night. Not at first, when Globex initially retraced Tuesday’s late surge back down to 2745.00. But that one step backward was followed by two steps forward, literally, when the 15-point dip snapped back up into a 30-point rally attacking 2775.00. Consolidating back down to 2757.00-2758.00 into Europe’s opens launched a 25-point rally to 2787.00. Backing-and-filling for the past 2 hours is testing 2779.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Is this still a correction? Not if the rally extends any higher post-open. And probably not if the open extends higher aggressively. Until then it’s still a correction. First, according to context: this leg’s origin left “unfinished business” below at 2709.50 and 2738.00. Second, according to measurement: the entire recovery is now testing the room for noise beyond a 61.8% retracement of the last downleg up to 2781.00-2787.00. There are other corrective measurements that allow for probing well above 2800.00, but they generally require this morning’s open to surge through last night’s highs. For now, the 2787.00 high and the structure that got here has stretched the correction rubber band to its maximum tightness. NOT reversing back down immediately would instead break the band’s restraint, and visually explode higher. Trading early would get long on almost any opening uptick for the potential of a post-open short-squeeze — but with a relatively tight stop, and a not-too-distant short-entry below just in case that initial strength is isolated and rejected during the first 3-4 minutes, and then reversed down sharply. Trading early would also short almost opening downtick not holding the pre-open pullback lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Current price action is far removed from this morning’s bias parameters.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2757.25 | 2756.75 |
| …would target | 2764.50 | 2764.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2746.75 | 2746.00 |
| …would target | 2738.75 | 2738.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.