members-only
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s gap down to 1.1650 had bounced into the afternoon. Monday morning slid back down to retest Friday’s gap down. Closing under it would fulfill the minimum requirement for at least an eventual third lower close that was put into play by Thursday’s confirmed breakout.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Opening at or under the 1195.00 bounce limit Monday and not closing back above it keeps alive downside momentum targeting at least 1172.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already dipping Sunday night from Friday’s attack on 14.80, Monday’s open at the prior target of 14.55 slid through the morning to test last Wednesday’s 14.40 close. There is no currently active signal.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Monday to the 140-10 sell signal and consolidating under it throughout the session could be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close on Tuesday. Otherwise, the likely alternative is to gap back up and resume the corrective bounce with potential to 141-16.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trending up sharply Monday rallied through the 73.90-74.25 target to test 75.10. The next higher target in-play is 80.80, which would be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close on Tuesday, so long as pullbacks now hold 73.90 as support.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s dip to the 3.00 pullback limit was rejected by gapping back up to and through Thursday’s 3.06 close and trending up to Thursday’s 3.11 high. The trend remains up, but the pullback limit is now 3.02.
Mid-day Update… Backed-and-filled.
Post-open gains retraced.
The gap up to 2933.75 happens also to be this afternoon’s calculation for a bias-down signal.
It was tested during the noon hour down to 2931.25, but held to trigger “late no-bias.”
Momentum reversed down thanks to a correction triggered under 2938.75 and targeting the 2934.00 area. Its target was fulfilled by a 5-point spike down to 2932.00.
An inflection point at 2934.50 is now being tested to try reversing momentum back up. Its test is including a reaction back down to attack 2932.00.
The 2931.25 low can be retested by several ticks, and then down to 2928.00-2929.00. Any lower would start to suggest something more substantial than just a normal correction on the way back up to new highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 2, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two Fed speakers Tuesday keep alive the outside inputs on a day with an otherwise dead econ calendar. The afternoon’s speaker is the Fed chair, so price may become inhibited ahead of the event.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Randal Quarles Speaks
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
12:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2936.50 | 2941.50 |
| …would target | 2942.50 | 2947.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2928.75 | 2933.75 |
| …would target | 2922.50 | 2927.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Reinforced.
Pre-open dip attracts post-open buyers.
The relentless overnight rally to 2937.75 faced the challenge of attracting post-open reinforcements. 
Often it does not, as overnight sponsorship starts selling and must be absorbed.
Today’s setup had a better chance of extending, because its news was a paradigm shift from recent perceptions. Helpful would have been a pre-open dip to negate the relentless label.
In fact, a 6-point pre-open dip to 2931.75 did inject pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Already firming 2 points pre-open, extending higher recovered the 2937.75 overnight high through the open. That was also the renewed bias-up target, and exceeding it at 10:15 renewed the bias-up signal. Doubly-renewed, which is much less reliable. But it’s still a bias-up environment.
2942.00 was just touched. Its 2940.50 pullback limit is being tested, Violating it back under 2938.75 would trigger a correction targeting 2933.75-2934.50. Extending higher at any time would next target 2945.25.