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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Up, up, and await?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s rally missed the opportunity to complete a retest of Wednesday’s 2907.50 low. The overnight attack on it to within 2 ticks also missed the opportunity. Enough of a recovery before the open allowed a little dip to test Thursday’s 2912.00 close. Its reaction held a test of the 2916.25 bias-down signal to put into play an offsetting test of the 2924.50 bias-up signal, which the morning’s high tested by 1 point. The afternoon ranged choppily flat-to-lower. Friday’s close again (barely) recovered 2919.00 for a second consecutive session. This keeps alive the That’s a different pattern, but the consequence should be to retest the prior Friday’s highs. And there would have been consequences to not recovering it, and/or to closing under 2914.00..
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up 5-1/2 points on the afternoon’s news of a US-Canada trade agreement. Fluctuating around Friday’s 2925.50 high soon resolved up and probed Thursday’s 2932.00 high. The overnight high is currently 2937.75, which is the high cash session close from the prior Thursday, one session prior to the intraday high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Monday’s open is indicated to gap up above both last Friday and Thursday AND Wednesday’s 2925.50, 2932.00 and 2936.00 highs. Only 2925.50 was necessary for reversing the trend up by proxy. But if 2936.00 (or only 2932.00) is tested during the open, then ITS recovery will be the threshold, and not exceeding it through the open would reverse momentum back down — even if only for the morning, down to lower prior highs at 2928.50-2930.00. All of which is possible because relentless overnight trending often loses its sponsorship at the open. A pre-open dip would help to relieve that. Also, being triggered not only by news, but by paradigm-shifting news, the open may succeed at attracting reinforcements. And attracting reinforcements can extend to new highs at 2947.50, including last Friday’s 2945.25 opening gap up.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2932.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2930.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 9/28/18)… Fallen, but could get up.
Must Wednesday’s low still be probed before retesting the prior week’s high? No, but that would have consequences. And its start would have specific characteristics, to know it’s actually underway. Does retesting Wednesday’s low ensure a bottom will form? No, and there are specific characteristics to know. We discuss those setups, and their objectives, along with upcoming influences, during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FB, TLRY, NBEV, CRM, BAC, IBB, TGODF, CGC, KSHB, ACBFF, IIPR, RAD, S, SQ
transcript
—————– (09/29/2018 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
David B: Good Morning
Mark: gm
jp: gm
—————– (09/29/2018 09:41) —————–
Bill G: gm
—————– (09/29/2018 09:47) —————–
Mark: Wed & Thu exhibited steady down trending in the final hour due to its entry being lower than the prior window’s close. Do you expect it to re-appear next week if/when a big down move happens?
—————– (09/29/2018 09:49) —————–
Mark: Bias up Mon morning would unlikely to reverse down at 32 but still can?
—————– (09/29/2018 09:54) —————–
Mark: answer to the last Q probably depends on when its target is met
—————– (09/29/2018 09:55) —————–
Bill G: Is the first break from the triangle in either direction likely to be false?
—————– (09/29/2018 09:58) —————–
Bill G: Also unfinished business at 2947.50?
—————– (09/29/2018 10:01) —————–
Mark: right
—————– (09/29/2018 10:03) —————–
Mark: yes
—————– (09/29/2018 10:06) —————–
Bill G: Could happen while testing the 9/21 open
—————– (09/29/2018 10:11) —————–
Mark: Underperformance of financials lately might also be negative telling that the top is near?
—————– (09/29/2018 10:12) —————–
Mark: TLRY and the likes are unlikly to lead the market higher :)
—————– (09/29/2018 10:15) —————–
Mark: yeah
Mark: my point is that localized and short lived
—————– (09/29/2018 10:19) —————–
David B: CRM,BAC
—————– (09/29/2018 10:25) —————–
David B: will we need to see when earnings coming out in the next two weeks and the reactions will tell us if the market has laready discounted or not thse earnings. What i am saying is this the next catalyst for the market to continue to higher highs?
Bill G: IBB Higher tgts or double top more likely?
—————– (09/29/2018 10:36) —————–
Mark: RAD – any hope after two failed merger deals?
—————– (09/29/2018 10:37) —————–
Mark: SQ
—————– (09/29/2018 10:48) —————–
Mark: not S, SQ
—————– (09/29/2018 10:50) —————–
Mark: volume declining on the final rally stretch
—————– (09/29/2018 10:52) —————–
Mark: k
—————– (09/29/2018 10:53) —————–
David B: Thanks
Mark: thx much
Bill G: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2919.75 | 2924.50 |
| …would target | 2926.00 | 2930.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2912.25 | 2917.00 |
| …would target | 2906.25 | 2911.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning’s rally missed the opportunity to complete a retest of Wednesday’s 2907.50 low. The overnight attack on it to within 2 ticks also missed the opportunity. None of which is predictive, not without the actual attempt to break lower. Its failure creates a consequence… and that’s what the methodology is all about.
So, this morning’s consequence was an offsetting test of the 2924.50 bias-up signal, for having held a test of the 2916.25 bias-down signal. Done. Its morning test marked the session high. And being a Friday, the balance of the session only ranged choppily sideways as was most likely.
Meanwhile, the close (barely) recovered 2919.00. That’s a different pattern, but the consequence should be to retest the prior Friday’s highs. And there would have been consequences to not recovering it, and/or to closing under 2914.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THE SATURDAY REVIEW.